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拉美观察丨美50%关税大棒落下 巴西对内纾困对外开拓市场
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-08-20 01:54
Core Points - The U.S. has imposed punitive tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian goods since August 6, 2025, severely impacting multiple export industries in Brazil [1][2] - The Brazilian government has quickly implemented economic relief measures and is seeking to diversify trade to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [1][11] Impact on Exports - Over 50% of Brazil's exports are affected by the U.S. tariffs, with approximately 35.9% facing a direct 50% tariff and an additional 19.5% facing global tariffs of 25% to 50% [5][2] - The most affected sectors include agriculture (tariffs increased from 4% to 40.8%), chemicals (from 2.3% to 40.1%), minerals (especially steel, from 0.5% to 38.7%), and machinery (from 0.8% to 38.2%) [5][2] - Specific products like coffee and beef are significantly impacted, with coffee exports to the U.S. projected at nearly $2 billion in 2024, and beef exports at 532,000 tons generating $1.6 billion [5][2] Regional Impact - The northeastern region of Brazil, heavily reliant on exports to the U.S., faces severe consequences, with 96% of its exports subject to the 50% tariff [6] - Seafood exports, particularly tuna, are critically affected, with over 70% of these products going to the U.S. [6] - The southern and southeastern regions benefit from some exemptions for high-value industrial products, providing temporary relief [5] Industry-Specific Effects - The orange juice industry, while exempt from the 50% tariff, still faces significant losses due to tariffs on related products and a drop in international prices, leading to an estimated loss of 1.54 billion reais (approximately $200 million) [10][9] - The overall average price of orange juice exported to the U.S. has decreased by over 20%, compounding the financial strain on the industry [10] Government Response - The Brazilian government has initiated the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan" to support affected exporters, including financial backing and tax relief [11] - Local governments are also implementing aid programs, such as São Paulo's release of tax credits and Ceará's inclusion of affected products in public procurement [12][13] Trade Diversification Efforts - Brazil is actively pursuing trade diversification to lessen dependence on the U.S. market, with plans to engage with BRICS nations and other international partners [14][15] - The government aims to sign international agreements to reduce trade barriers and promote Brazilian products in new markets [14][15]