点击按钮▲立即报名 我国为157个国家和地区前三大贸易伙伴 8月25日，国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。据海关总署署长介绍，我国已成为全球157个国家和地区前三大贸易伙 伴，国际合作共赢新优势更加凸显。"十四五"以来，海关对外签署合作文件519份。2024年，我国与共建"一带一路"国家进出口22万亿元，占我 国进出口比重超过一半，与东盟、拉美、非洲、中亚等新兴市场进出口年均增长10%以上。 海关总署副署长介绍，"十四五"期间，我国新设海关特殊监管区域19个，总数达到174个，实现了全国各省区市全覆盖。2024年海关特殊监管区 域进出口值相比"十三五"末的2020年增长超三成。（综合新华社） ｜点评｜ 过去五年，我国继续积极在国际上开拓外贸"朋友圈"，贸易伙伴数量持续增加，贸易合作关系不断加深。今年面对美国的关税打击， 我国外贸能够表现出较强韧性，贸易上的多元化布局发挥了重要作用。随着新兴市场的开拓，我国对单一市场的依赖逐渐降低，一定程度上分 散了贸易风险。同时，成为多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴，也为我国贸易体量的稳定增长提供了支撑。 眼下国际贸易环境复杂多变，我国在稳固外贸基本盘的同 ...

特朗普政府挥舞关税大棒，新德里首当其冲。高达50%的惩罚性关税，相当于在原有25%的基础上再叠加25%的"次级关税"，使得印度出口商品在美国市场 举步维艰。蒂芙尼等依赖印度进口钻石的美国珠宝品牌成本应声飙升，涨幅超过50%。印度苏拉特钻石加工中心的订单量暴跌40%，美国本土珠宝巨头 Signet Jewelers的供应链遭受重创，直接影响到30%依赖印度供应的美国珠宝企业及其就业岗位。 面对美国的经济施压，莫迪政府并未坐以待毙，而是展开了一系列复杂而富有战略性的反制行动。 首当其冲的是军购领域的反击。莫迪政府果断冻结了高达36亿美元的军购大单，原计划采购的波音P-8I反潜巡逻机交易被无限期搁置，使得美国军工复合体 遭遇预期之外的巨额损失。 军购反制与能源突围 能源领域，俄罗斯迅速成为印度的关键盟友。印度外长苏杰生紧急飞往莫斯科寻求破局，俄印两国外长会晤后发表联合声明：印度将继续购买俄罗斯原油。 俄罗斯承诺扩大双边经济合作，考虑给予印度更优惠的能源条件。俄罗斯石油已成为印度能源命脉，日均进口量高达210万桶，远超沙特（57.9万桶）和伊 拉克（83.5万桶）的供应量。对85%石油依赖进口的印度而言，稳定的俄油价 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Trump's call for China to increase its soybean orders from the U.S. by four times, highlighting the strained trade relations between the two countries [1] - In 2017, U.S. soybeans accounted for nearly 40% of China's total imports, but this figure is projected to drop to 20% by 2024 due to tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration [3] - Brazil's share of soybean imports to China has risen significantly, from 50% in 2017 to 70% in 2024, as China diversifies its sources to ensure stable supply and lower costs [3] Group 2 - China's delayed purchasing of U.S. soybeans this year marks the latest start since 2005, indicating a shift in procurement strategies and a surplus in soybean meal supply [3] - The U.S. government has imposed sanctions on two Chinese entities related to oil trade with Iran, which is seen as an attempt to pressure China into increasing soybean purchases [5] - China's energy import strategy has diversified, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar and making it difficult for U.S. sanctions to disrupt its energy cooperation with Iran [5] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for U.S. agriculture is bleak without the Chinese market, leading to unsold agricultural products and declining prices for American farmers [7] - The proposed $60 billion agricultural subsidy plan by the U.S. government has faced criticism for primarily benefiting large agricultural enterprises, leaving family farms with limited support [7] - China's trade policies are driven by its own market and strategic considerations, suggesting that external pressures from the U.S. may not lead to significant changes in its procurement practices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government's imposition of punitive tariffs, highlighting the potential negative effects on global trade, economic growth, and geopolitical stability, particularly for African economies [1]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff barriers are expected to increase the cost of imported goods, leading to a restructuring of global supply chains [1]. - The punitive tariffs may disrupt trade channels in key sectors such as commodities, electronics, and textiles [1]. - African economies, which heavily rely on export trade, foreign investment, and multilateral trade systems, will face increased economic vulnerability due to these tariffs [1]. Group 2: Specific Case of Kenya - Kenya is projected to experience significant adverse effects from the U.S. tariffs, with an estimated loss of 600,000 jobs and over 13 billion Kenyan shillings in fiscal revenue [1]. - The end of the grace period for tariffs on Kenyan goods entering the U.S. poses a severe challenge for the country [1]. Group 3: Regional Trade Dynamics - Despite the ongoing progress of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, intra-African trade accounts for only 18% of total African trade, which is insufficient to mitigate the impacts of global trade disruptions [2]. - The article emphasizes the need for African nations to diversify their trade strategies, reduce dependency on the U.S. market, and strengthen regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area framework [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to significantly increase import tariffs on Indian products due to India's substantial purchases of Russian oil, which has raised concerns about India's economic security [1][3] - The Indian textile industry, a crucial export sector, faces severe challenges as U.S. tariffs increase costs, leading to reduced orders from American importers and potential job losses for many workers [3] - The Indian pharmaceutical sector, a major global supplier of generic drugs, is also adversely affected as the tariffs diminish price competitiveness in the U.S. market, prompting U.S. healthcare providers to seek alternative sources [3] Group 2 - In response to U.S. pressure, the Indian government is encouraging citizens to buy local products to mitigate the economic impact of global uncertainties, emphasizing India's potential to become the world's third-largest economy [4] - India has criticized the U.S. for its double standards regarding the purchase of Russian oil, highlighting that other countries engaging in similar trade have not faced similar tariff sanctions [4] - Brazil aims to double its trade with India from the current $12 billion, seeking to diversify its trade partnerships and enhance cooperation in sectors like aviation, which could benefit both economies [6] Group 3 - Recent developments indicate a warming trend in China-India relations, with both countries recognizing the importance of their markets and striving for stable trade despite existing tensions [8] - High-level interactions between Indian and Chinese officials, including participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meetings, reflect India's commitment to strengthening ties with China [8] - The evolving dynamics between India, the U.S., and Brazil, along with adjustments in India-China relations, are likely to influence the political and economic landscape in South Asia and beyond [8]

Group 1: Trade Impact - The U.S. has raised tariffs on Brazilian imports from 10% to 50%, affecting a wide range of products including orange juice, coffee, and aircraft manufacturing [1][2] - Brazil's average tariff on U.S. goods is currently 2.7%, with a projected trade deficit of $43 billion in goods and $165 billion in services with the U.S. from 2024 to 2025 [1] - The Brazilian National Industry Confederation estimates that the new tariffs will lead to a 0.37% decrease in U.S. GDP and a 0.16% decrease in Brazilian GDP, with a potential loss of 52 billion Brazilian Reais in exports and 100,000 jobs in Brazil [2] Group 2: Sector-Specific Effects - The Brazilian orange juice export sector warns that the new tariffs could lead to an "unsustainable state," potentially causing harvest interruptions and factory chaos [3] - The Brazilian coffee export sector, which relies heavily on the U.S. market (16% of total exports), will face significant price increases, impacting over 300,000 coffee farming families and 2.2 million coffee workers in the U.S. [4] - The Brazilian aircraft manufacturing sector estimates that each exported plane to the U.S. will incur an additional cost of approximately $9 million due to the tariffs, with potential total losses reaching 2 billion Reais [5] Group 3: Furniture and Other Industries - The Brazilian furniture industry, which exports 30% of its products to the U.S., is experiencing order reductions and potential job losses for over 1.1 million workers due to the tariff increase [6][7] - The furniture sector has seen tariffs rise from an average of 3.5% to 50%, leading to significant disruptions in operations [7] Group 4: Political and Economic Reactions - Brazilian President Lula has condemned the U.S. tariffs as unacceptable interference in Brazil's sovereignty and has indicated plans for retaliatory measures [8] - The Brazilian government is actively seeking to negotiate with U.S. businesses to mitigate the negative impacts of the tariffs [11] - Analysts suggest that the tariff conflict reflects deeper political tensions, with the U.S. using trade measures as leverage against Brazil's domestic politics [12][13]

Group 1 - In June, China's imports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas from the U.S. dropped to zero, indicating a significant strategic shift in energy sourcing [1][3][7] - The U.S. imposed high tariffs on oil (94%) and natural gas (99%), making imports economically unfeasible for China [7][9] - China's energy imports from the U.S. had already seen drastic declines in the first quarter of the year, with crude oil imports plummeting by 54%, 76%, and 70% in consecutive months [3][5] Group 2 - The shift in energy sourcing reflects a broader trend of supply chain diversification, with China successfully finding alternative suppliers in Brazil, the Middle East, and Russia [11][25] - The reduction in U.S. energy exports to China is expected to have significant economic repercussions for U.S. states reliant on these exports, particularly Texas and Louisiana [5][18] - China's strategic adjustments in energy procurement are part of a larger trend of reducing reliance on U.S. goods, as evidenced by a significant increase in imports from Brazil, which rose from 46% to 74% of China's soybean imports [20][22] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions have led to a reconfiguration of global supply chains, with countries increasingly seeking to diversify their trade partnerships away from the U.S. [28][30] - China's reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by $57.3 billion to $759 billion marks a significant shift in financial strategy, indicating a move towards de-dollarization [22][24] - The international landscape is evolving towards a multi-polar and regionalized economy, diminishing the U.S.'s role as a primary trade partner [33][35]

Group 1: International Gold Market - As of July 28, international gold is trading around $3,343.79 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.03% from the previous session, reaching a high of $3,343.79 and a low of $3,322.09 [1] - The short-term outlook for international gold appears to be fluctuating within a range [1] Group 2: EU-US Trade Relations - In 2025, Trump is expected to return to the White House, reinstating his "America First" trade policy, which introduces significant uncertainty into global trade dynamics [3] - The EU has accelerated negotiations in response to Trump's threat of imposing up to 30% "reciprocal" tariffs, ultimately agreeing to a 15% baseline tariff, which falls short of the EU's initial goal of "zero-for-zero" tariffs [3] - The outcome of the negotiations indicates that the EU was unable to gain the upper hand in trade discussions with the US, leading to disappointment among European leaders [3][4] Group 3: EU Trade Strategy Reevaluation - The agreement has prompted the EU to reassess its trade strategy, with calls from the German Foreign Trade Association for Europe to reduce dependence on the US and diversify its trade partnerships [4] - There is potential for EU leaders to push for internal market integration and enhance technological innovation, as well as expand trade with emerging markets in Asia and Africa [4] - Despite the lack of comprehensive confrontation, EU member states are exploring "counter-coercion measures" against US advantages in service trade, although implementation faces challenges due to a lack of consensus [4]

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between Canada and the United States remains unachieved as the deadline set by Trump approaches, prompting Canadian provinces to seek solutions and reassess trade relations, particularly with China [1][10]. Group 1: Provincial Responses - Ontario's Premier Ford suggests that if a fair agreement is not reached, Canada has the right to impose additional taxes on electricity from U.S. states as a response to unreasonable U.S. policies [1]. - Nova Scotia's Premier Tim Houston emphasizes that Canada should not be pressured by Trump's timeline and that the priority should be achieving a fair agreement, regardless of the time it takes [1]. - Saskatchewan's Premier Moe advocates for diversifying trade and improving relations with China, highlighting its significance as a major market and trade partner [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Current Policies - Canada previously imposed new tariffs on electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum from China, aligning with U.S. strategies, but this has backfired as 80% of battery components are imported from China [6]. - Saskatchewan's canola exports, which rely 30% on China, have suffered losses exceeding CAD 1.5 billion due to Chinese tariffs, while British Columbia's seafood industry faces a projected loss of CAD 80 million [6]. - The reliance on the U.S. market is significant, with 68% of Canadian exports directed to the U.S., making Canada vulnerable to potential U.S. tariffs of up to 35% on Canadian goods starting August 1 [8]. Group 3: Strategic Shift - The provincial leaders recognize that solely relying on trade disputes with the U.S. is insufficient and advocate for accelerating trade with China to reduce dependence on the U.S. market [9]. - The current situation places Canada in a dual trade war, facing pressures from both the U.S. and retaliatory measures from China, making it crucial to improve relations with China [9]. - The joint petition from ten provinces indicates a strategic shift in Canada's economic approach towards "diversified cooperation" to stabilize the economy and ensure citizens' livelihoods amidst escalating trade tensions [10].

Group 1 - The report indicates that global trade continued to grow in the first half of 2025, but the growth rate has slowed due to factors such as a slowdown in global economic growth, uncertainty in trade policies, and increased geopolitical risks [1][2] - Developed countries experienced a faster trade growth rate compared to developing countries, primarily driven by strong import growth in the United States and a recovery in EU exports [1][2] - Trade imbalances are worsening, with the U.S. trade deficit expanding while trade surpluses for China and the EU have increased, highlighting ongoing tensions in trade relationships among major economies [2] Group 2 - The report notes significant differences in trade growth across industries, with the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors experiencing trade growth rates well above the global average, while trade in communication equipment has significantly declined [2] - The digital economy is facing issues of market concentration, negatively impacting competition, innovation, and consumer choice, particularly in developing countries [3] - Recommendations include promoting trade diversification, encouraging companies to enhance supply chain diversity, strengthening regional cooperation, and simplifying trade procedures to reduce costs [3]