Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the alumina industry chain is "Oscillating Bullish" for caustic soda and alumina, and "Oscillating" for aluminum [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views - In the alumina industry chain, caustic soda prices are expected to continue a small - scale oscillating upward trend in the short term; alumina prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term; and aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend in the short term [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract oscillated downward during the day and continued to decline at night, closing at 2513 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.87%. Trading volume was 614,700 lots, a significant decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 200,800 lots, an increase of 14,213 lots; turnover was 47.285 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous trading day [1] - **Important Information**: Weekly caustic soda operating rate was 85.97%, a 0.68% increase from the previous week; weekly domestic production was 835,100 tons, a 0.68% increase; weekly domestic factory inventory was 256,000 tons, a 2.77% increase; cost per 100% caustic soda was 1,800.96 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease; gross profit per 100% caustic soda was 1,202.22 yuan/ton, a 1.04% increase [1] - **Market Logic**: The average price of the domestic 32% liquid caustic soda market was 953.91 yuan/ton, up 3.38 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous working day. The domestic liquid caustic soda market average price increased, with different trends in futures and spot. The supply in the industry is relatively sufficient, and downstream receiving is stable. Non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement, and the alumina market's demand is driven by the price improvement [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [1] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract was weakly running during the day and oscillated narrowly at night, closing at 3111 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton or 1.18%. Trading volume was 2,165,900 lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 473,600 lots, an increase of 30,803 lots; turnover was 136.348 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [3] - **Important Information**: Last week, domestic alumina factory inventory was 158547 tons, a 0.02% decrease from the previous week; market inventory was 76,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. This week, domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 162,160 tons, a 0.96% decrease; the weekly operating utilization rate was 76.46%, a 0.96% decrease. The average reference production cash cost of the domestic alumina industry was 3198.36 yuan/ton, a 4.04% decrease; industry gross profit was - 239.07 yuan/ton, a 45.24% increase [3] - **Market Logic**: The spot market average price was 3059.85 yuan/ton, up 48.62 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The Guinea incident continued to disrupt the market, with an expected decrease in ore supply, and alumina prices remained high. The market's operating capacity was always at a low level, resulting in a supply gap. There was an expected decrease in Guinea's ore supply and an expected increase in imported ore prices, increasing enterprise costs and leading to a reluctance to sell in the industry. The import market was relatively active, with the Australian FOB price at 367 US dollars/ton. China's alumina imports in April were 10705.49 tons, a 90.12% year - on - year decrease and a 4.16% month - on - month decrease; exports were 262875.89 tons, a 101.62% year - on - year increase and an 11.41% month - on - month decrease [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [3] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day's futures main 2507 contract oscillated, jumped at the night - session opening and continued a small - scale upward trend, closing at 20185 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton or 0.62%. Trading volume was 182,300 lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; open interest was 515,900 lots, a decrease of 5569 lots; turnover was 18.285 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [4] - **Important Information**: Bauxite weekly production was 1.13 million tons, a 0.53% increase; electrolytic aluminum weekly production was 84.09 tons, a 0.02% increase. This week, the industry's production cost was 16894.59 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase; the industry's average gross profit was 3229.78 yuan/ton, a 12.27% increase. Factory inventory during the week was 53,000 tons, a 3.99% decrease; market inventory was 61,940 tons, a 5.13% decrease; LME inventory was 395,400 tons, a 0.46% decrease; SHFE inventory was 62,800 tons, a 1.6% decrease [4] - **Market Logic**: The Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson emphasized a wait - and - see attitude, advocating patience in adjusting interest rates. Coupled with the downward risk of the US economy, the outer - market aluminum price was affected. The domestic market was still waiting and seeing about the impact of tariff policies, and the market sentiment eased after domestic banks lowered deposit rates. There were both bullish and bearish news in the current industry, but domestic macro - policies would continue to drive market demand, and the overall domestic market sentiment was good [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell put options [4]