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中集集团(000039):看好海工业务贡献增长新动能
HTSC· 2025-10-31 06:40
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 117.06 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.566 billion RMB, down 14.35% year-on-year [1] - The decline in revenue and profit in Q3 2025 is attributed to a high base effect from the container business in the same period last year. However, the energy business has a full order book, and the offshore engineering business is expected to benefit from the global recovery in deep-sea oil and gas development, providing new growth momentum for performance [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 40.97 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 17.82%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 287 million RMB, down 70.13% year-on-year and 60.86% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 11.40%, down 2.21 percentage points year-on-year and 1.79 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the increased revenue share from the lower-margin offshore business [2] Business Segments - The container business showed resilience despite facing high base pressure from 2024. The company sold 1.8018 million TEUs of dry cargo containers, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 27.53%, while the refrigerated container sales increased by 64.35% year-on-year to 153,500 TEUs [3] - The energy segment has a robust order backlog of approximately 30.763 billion RMB as of September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. The offshore business is improving operational efficiency and profitability, with several significant deliveries in 2025 [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated release of global deep-sea oil and gas development demand. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 3.018 billion RMB, 3.630 billion RMB, and 4.038 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56, 0.67, and 0.75 RMB [5] - The target price for the A shares is set at 10.72 RMB, while the target price for the H shares is 10.87 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 16 times for 2026 [5]