看好降息周期下 FPSO 订单加速释放 20251116 高利率环境对 FPSO 订单释放有何影响？降息周期将带来哪些变化？ 摘要 深海油气开发成本降低，南美地区成本竞争力突出，低于部分陆上油气 产区，推动全球油气开发向深海转移。截至 2024 年，深海油气开发占 比虽仅 7%，但过去十年新探明储量 70%以上位于深海，深海开发成趋 势。 FPSO 作为深海油气开发核心设施，具备初步加工能力，在远离岸线的 深海油气资源开采中不可或缺。尤其在巴西、圭亚那等地的大规模低成 本开采中，大型 FPSO 更具性价比，迎来战略机遇期。 高利率环境曾挤压 FPSO 总包商利润，延缓订单释放。利率上升导致项 目内部收益率大幅下降，项目被迫推迟。美联储降息周期启动，融资环 境改善，有望加速 FPSO 订单释放，激活已通过最终投资决策的项目。 全球深海行业重心转移至东南亚和南美，带动供应链向亚太地区转移， 中国企业受益于技术和制造能力升级，能够胜任更复杂的高端装备制造 项目，技术突破提升附加值，盈利能力显著增强。 中集集团、中国船舶、博迈科、纽威股份等公司将受益于 FPSO 订单加 速释放。中集集团海工业务占比高，预计 2025 ...

Core Insights - "Deep Sea No. 1" is China's largest offshore gas field, with an annual production capacity exceeding 4.5 billion cubic meters [5][8] - The project has achieved a daily gas production of up to 15 million cubic meters, marking a significant milestone in deep-sea oil and gas development in China [6][8] Production Capacity - The "Deep Sea No. 1" gas field has a total of 23 underwater gas wells that are now operational, contributing to its status as the largest offshore gas field in China [5][6] - The gas produced is transported to various regions, including Hainan Free Trade Port and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, benefiting numerous households and industries [5][8] Technical Achievements - The project faced extreme geological conditions, with the highest formation temperature reaching 138 degrees Celsius and maximum pressure exceeding 69 MPa, presenting significant technical challenges [6][9] - "Deep Sea No. 1" has become the deepest and most challenging deep-water gas field developed independently in China, showcasing advanced technology and engineering capabilities [6][9] Innovative Development Model - The project utilized a pioneering development model combining underwater production systems, shallow water jacket platforms, and deep-water semi-submersible platforms, which is a first in the industry [7] - The infrastructure includes a vast network of underwater pipelines and platforms, spanning over 170 kilometers and operating at depths exceeding 1,500 meters [7][8] Future Prospects - The successful implementation of "Deep Sea No. 1" is expected to enhance the development of other complex deep-water oil and gas reserves, contributing to China's energy supply and supporting the transition to a greener energy structure [7][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 117.06 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 9.23%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.566 billion RMB, down 14.35% year-on-year [1] - The decline in revenue and profit in Q3 2025 is attributed to a high base effect from the container business in the same period last year. However, the energy business has a full order book, and the offshore engineering business is expected to benefit from the global recovery in deep-sea oil and gas development, providing new growth momentum for performance [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 40.97 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 17.82%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 287 million RMB, down 70.13% year-on-year and 60.86% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 11.40%, down 2.21 percentage points year-on-year and 1.79 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the increased revenue share from the lower-margin offshore business [2] Business Segments - The container business showed resilience despite facing high base pressure from 2024. The company sold 1.8018 million TEUs of dry cargo containers, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 27.53%, while the refrigerated container sales increased by 64.35% year-on-year to 153,500 TEUs [3] - The energy segment has a robust order backlog of approximately 30.763 billion RMB as of September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%. The offshore business is improving operational efficiency and profitability, with several significant deliveries in 2025 [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated release of global deep-sea oil and gas development demand. The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 3.018 billion RMB, 3.630 billion RMB, and 4.038 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.56, 0.67, and 0.75 RMB [5] - The target price for the A shares is set at 10.72 RMB, while the target price for the H shares is 10.87 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 16 times for 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the emergence of the company as a leader in the FLNG (Floating Liquefied Natural Gas) sector, showcasing its significant market share and technological advancements that have reshaped the global marine engineering landscape [1][2][3]. Company Overview - The company, 惠生清能 (Hui Sheng Qing Neng), is the only Chinese enterprise capable of independently constructing and delivering FLNG projects, holding over 30% of the global market share in newly built FLNG contracts [1][7]. - It has established long-term partnerships with major international energy companies, including ENI and Malaysia's national oil company [7][10]. Technological Advancements - The company has developed a modular integration technology with over 90% modularization rate, significantly reducing construction time by nearly one-third compared to international standards [4][5]. - It has produced the world's largest SPB (Self-supporting Prismatic Shape) storage tank, breaking the international monopoly on this technology [5]. Market Position and Strategy - 惠生清能 has positioned itself as a key player in the high-end marine engineering equipment sector, transitioning from a follower to a leader through technological innovation and comprehensive project management capabilities [6][9]. - The company aims to expand its global market presence and diversify its client base while enhancing its product offerings in floating marine equipment and offshore wind power [11][12]. Industry Context - The global demand for natural gas is projected to grow, with significant opportunities in deep-sea oil and gas development, which aligns with the company's strategic focus on FLNG technology [13]. - The Chinese marine engineering equipment industry is evolving from low-end assembly to high-value-added production, with 惠生清能 serving as a model for this transformation [8][9].

Core Insights - The "Deep Sea No. 1" Phase II project has achieved full production, marking it as the largest offshore gas field in China with a maximum daily output of 15 million cubic meters [2][4] - This gas field is notable for being the deepest and most challenging to develop in terms of geological conditions, with 12 underwater wells exceeding 60,000 meters in total depth, temperatures reaching 138 degrees Celsius, and pressures up to 69 MPa [4][6] - The successful completion of the project is a significant milestone for China's deep-water high-pressure gas development, positioning the country among global leaders in this field [6][9] Production Capacity and Technical Challenges - The "Deep Sea No. 1" gas field consists of 23 underwater gas wells, all operational, contributing to a projected annual gas output of over 4.5 billion cubic meters [2][9] - The project faced extreme geological challenges, including high temperature and pressure, requiring innovative solutions and extensive research to ensure safe and efficient drilling operations [4][7] - The development of the underwater production system involved complex equipment and technology, with a focus on optimizing production management and simulating various operational scenarios [4][5] Technological Innovations and Achievements - The project has led to the creation of five world-first key technologies for drilling high-pressure wells, enhancing operational efficiency by over 30% [9] - A significant achievement includes the successful development of domestically produced high-density completion fluids, which saved nearly 100 million yuan in operational costs [7][9] - The establishment of a complete technical system for deep-water gas field development is expected to facilitate the economic and efficient development of other complex offshore oil and gas reserves in the future [10] Strategic Importance - The "Deep Sea No. 1" gas field is crucial for China's energy supply, with marine oil and gas production becoming a primary focus, accounting for approximately 80% of the national crude oil increase in 2024 [6][10] - The gas produced will support industrial and residential users in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Hainan Free Trade Port, integrating into the national gas pipeline network [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advancements and achievements of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) in the Bohai Sea oil and gas production, focusing on the development of the Bozhong 19-6 condensate gas field and the company's efforts in increasing reserves and production, technological innovation, and energy transition [2][4][10]. Group 1: Infrastructure and Operations - The Bohai oil field features a modern offshore energy complex with five giant platforms connected by bridges, and seven unmanned wellhead platforms, forming a high-density production base [2][3]. - The Bozhong 19-6 condensate gas field is located at an average water depth of 22.4 meters, with oil and gas buried over 5000 meters deep, presenting significant drilling challenges due to complex geological conditions [3][4]. - The platform group employs highly intelligent management systems, allowing remote operation and monitoring of production data, ensuring safety even in extreme weather conditions [3][4]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - CNOOC has developed innovative solutions to overcome technical challenges in deep-sea drilling, including the creation of high-temperature resistant drilling fluids and the establishment of the largest offshore gas injection platform in China [4][8]. - The company has made significant breakthroughs in deep-water oil and gas exploration, transitioning from shallow to deep-water operations, and has established a complete exploration and development system [8][9]. Group 3: Production and Growth - Since 2019, the Bohai oil field has focused on increasing reserves and production, with daily crude oil output surpassing 100,000 tons, accounting for nearly one-sixth of China's total crude oil production [6][10]. - The successful launch of the Bozhong 19-6 condensate gas field marks a new phase in the development of deep-sea oil and gas resources, contributing to the goal of producing 40 million tons by 2025 [4][6]. Group 4: Environmental Initiatives - CNOOC emphasizes green development, implementing projects such as the Bohai oil field shore power application and the first offshore photovoltaic integrated project in China [7][10]. - The company aims to create a new marine industrial ecosystem by integrating offshore wind power, marine ranching, and other renewable energy sources [9].

Group 1 - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has shown a slight increase of 0.30% as of May 19, 2025, with notable gains in constituent stocks such as Huajin Co. (000059) up by 3.62% and Lansi Heavy Industry (603169) up by 2.22% [1] - The Oil and Gas ETF (159697) has risen by 0.52%, currently priced at 0.97 yuan, indicating a positive trend in the oil and gas sector [2] - Recent innovations in key technologies for oil and gas exploration and development have positioned shale gas as a significant area for sustainable resource development in China, with major shale gas demonstration zones established in the Sichuan Basin [2] Group 2 - The Sichuan Basin has identified eight shale gas fields with a total resource volume of 16.5 trillion cubic meters, contributing to national energy security through the localization of critical equipment and tools [2] - East China Securities anticipates a recovery in trade, which will positively impact oil demand, predicting that oil prices may bottom out in the second quarter and recover thereafter, benefiting upstream resource companies [2] - Guoxin Securities highlights the vast potential for deep-sea oil and gas development in China's northern and central southern South China Sea, supported by relevant technological policies [2][3] Group 3 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index account for 66.65% of the index, with major players including China National Petroleum (601857) and China Petroleum & Chemical (600028) [3]

Group 1 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved a significant milestone by completing a deepwater drilling operation in 11.5 days, setting a new record for drilling cycles in the 3500-4000 meter range in China [1] - The breakthrough validates the advanced nature of China's independent deepwater drilling and completion technology system, which is crucial for promoting large-scale growth of deepwater oil and gas resources [1][2] - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, the volume of deepwater drilling and completion operations in China has increased by over 74% compared to the previous five years, supporting the production of large deepwater oil and gas projects [1] Group 2 - CNOOC's drilling team has successfully tackled four major global technical challenges in deepwater, deep-layer, high-temperature, and high-pressure environments, enhancing pressure control precision to within 0.2 MPa [2] - The successful drilling of the Lingshui 36-1 gas field and the "Deep Sea No. 1" project demonstrates the potential of China's deepwater carbonate exploration [2] - CNOOC aims to further advance deepwater oil and gas development technologies towards deeper and faster operations, transitioning from experience-driven to data-driven and intelligent decision-making processes [3]

Core Insights - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced the successful completion of a deepwater drilling operation in 11.5 days, setting a new record for drilling cycles in the 3500-4000 meter range in China [5][6] - The sixth-generation domestically designed semi-submersible platform "Fengjin" has demonstrated advanced capabilities in deepwater drilling, contributing significantly to China's oil and gas resource development goals [6][9] Group 1: Technological Advancements - "Fengjin" is China's first sixth-generation semi-submersible drilling platform, capable of operating at a maximum water depth of 3000 meters and drilling to depths of 10000 meters, with a wind resistance capacity of level 17 [7] - The platform has achieved a 93% operational efficiency during its initial drilling, surpassing international counterparts [7] - CNOOC has developed a complete technical system for deepwater drilling, transitioning from reliance on imports to self-sufficiency in key technologies [9] Group 2: Milestones and Achievements - In 2014, "Fengjin" achieved the first significant oil and gas discovery in China's self-operated deepwater exploration at the Lingshui 17-2 gas field, with a production capacity of 56.5 million cubic feet per day, equivalent to 9400 barrels of oil [8] - The platform has set multiple records over the years, including the shortest drilling cycle for high-temperature and high-pressure wells and the deepest operational depths in both China and the Asia-Pacific region [10][11] - CNOOC's deepwater drilling teams have grown to 10 teams with over 1200 trained professionals, marking a significant development in China's deepwater drilling capabilities [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has achieved a significant milestone by completing a deepwater drilling operation in southern China in just 11.5 days, setting a new record for drilling cycles at depths of 3500-4000 meters, which demonstrates the advanced capabilities of China's independent deepwater drilling technology [1][3][4] Group 1 - The successful drilling operation breaks the previous record and validates the effectiveness of China's complete deepwater drilling technology system, which is crucial for scaling up deepwater oil and gas resource development and supporting the country's goal of maintaining an annual crude oil production of 200 million tons [1][4] - Deepwater drilling is characterized by high risks, high costs, and high technical demands, with CNOOC's technology and operational capabilities being at the forefront globally [3][4] - CNOOC has developed a unique deepwater drilling technology system and lean management model, breaking down drilling tasks into hundreds of routine operations and coordinating various technical teams to ensure safe and efficient operations throughout the drilling process [4][6] Group 2 - Since the 14th Five-Year Plan, CNOOC has successfully developed several large-scale projects, including the Dongfang 13-2 gas field and the Shenhai No. 1 deepwater gas field, which have accelerated the development of complex offshore oil and gas resources and boosted the marine drilling equipment industry [4][6] - The future of deepwater oil and gas development will focus on deeper and faster drilling, leveraging data-driven and intelligent decision-making processes to enhance operational efficiency and safety [6][7] - The breakthroughs in deepwater drilling technology not only improve operational efficiency and safety but also provide a "Chinese solution" for global deepwater oil and gas development, showcasing China's independent innovation capabilities in marine technology [7]