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特朗普2.0关税政策对全球能源转型的影响以及中国新能源企业出海行动建议
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-07 04:02
Core Viewpoint - The policy changes under Trump's second term have significantly impacted the global economic system, particularly in the energy sector, which is heavily influenced by tariffs and trade policies [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Transition Impact - The global energy system has reached a consensus on low-carbon and digital transformation, but Trump's "America First" policies contradict this trend, creating challenges and uncertainties for energy transition [3][6]. - Short-term impacts of Trump's tariffs are felt in the energy supply chain and project investment costs, while long-term effects include diminished investment confidence and increased energy costs for consumers [6][9]. - The CEO Outlook survey indicates that 77% of CEOs in the metals and minerals sector have paused or terminated investment plans due to tariff impacts, reflecting concerns over global trade dynamics [6][8]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Analysis - In the metals and minerals sector, 30% of CEOs are adjusting business areas and negotiating with suppliers, indicating a strategic response to the changing trade environment [6]. - The renewable energy sector, particularly in the U.S., faces challenges from tariffs targeting Chinese solar and wind equipment, with a potential 17% increase in the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for storage systems if tariffs rise by 50% [7]. - The oil and gas sector is experiencing a cautious approach to renewable investments, with 77% of CEOs adjusting strategies in response to tariff pressures and declining demand [9]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Companies are revising strategic plans, with 70% of CEOs taking action to adapt to the new tariff landscape, including pausing investments and reassessing market entry and exit strategies [8][9]. - The need for a global market and supply chain risk assessment system is emphasized, focusing on monitoring international market reactions beyond U.S.-China dynamics [11]. - Companies are encouraged to diversify their market strategies and enhance technological innovation to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and geopolitical tensions [14][15].