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朝闻国盛:关税落地三周,出口变差了多少?
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-29 00:18
Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in global trade and Chinese exports following the implementation of new tariffs, particularly affecting exports to the US while showing some improvement in exports to Vietnam [4] - The report anticipates that China's exports in April may see a notable decline, but "trans-exports" could partially offset this impact, with overall export figures not expected to turn significantly negative due to low base effects [4] Macroeconomic Analysis - Global trade indicators have shown a downturn since April, with a notable drop in US container bookings and port truck transport volumes, indicating a larger decline in US imports [4] - In China, high-frequency data related to exports to the US has weakened, while indicators for exports to Vietnam have improved, suggesting a shift in trade dynamics [4] - Industrial operating rates in sectors like automotive and textiles have recently weakened, likely linked to the impact of increased tariffs [4] Industry Performance Mechanical Sector - Peak Technology (688279.SH) reported slightly better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, with a focus on expanding applications in home appliances, automotive, and industrial sectors [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for high-performance motor control chips due to advancements in automation and smart technologies [8] Food and Beverage Sector - Haitian Flavor Industry (603288.SH) achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 8.315 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.08%, and a net profit of 2.202 billion yuan, up 14.77% [9] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the restaurant sector and plans for overseas expansion, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 7.01 billion, 7.82 billion, and 8.65 billion yuan respectively [10] Construction and Decoration Sector - China State Construction (601668.SH) demonstrated resilience with a 40% increase in infrastructure orders, while maintaining stable net profit margins [14] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 44.8 billion, 45.4 billion, and 45.6 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, reflecting a slight decline in 2025 followed by modest growth [14] Electrical Equipment Sector - Tian Shun Wind Power (002531.SZ) is facing short-term performance pressures but is expected to see improvements as offshore wind projects ramp up [15] - Qingda Environmental Protection (688501.SH) is projected to achieve significant revenue growth, with expected revenues of 1.987 billion, 2.384 billion, and 2.785 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [16] Home Appliances Sector - Hisense Home Appliances (000921.SZ) reported Q1 2025 revenue of 24.838 billion yuan, a 5.76% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 14.89% [20] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in net profits over the next few years, with projections of 3.75 billion, 4.186 billion, and 4.602 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [20] Steel Construction Sector - Precision Steel Structure (600496.SH) has shown improved report quality and rapid growth in overseas business, with projected net profits of 570 million, 640 million, and 710 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [22]