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【光大研究每日速递】20251217
光大证券研究· 2025-12-16 23:03
Group 1: Macro Insights - The central bank is likely to raise interest rates in December 2025, but the impact of carry trades may be less significant than in July 2024 due to a smaller scale of carry trades and a lower number of non-commercial short positions [5] - Current US economic conditions do not indicate a recession risk, reducing the likelihood of accelerated unwinding of carry trades [5] - The sentiment towards the Japanese yen is not concentrated, and the potential for policy rate increases in Japan is limited, adding uncertainty to the yen's outlook [5] Group 2: Fund Market Trends - The domestic equity market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.74%, while defense and military-themed funds outperformed [6] - A total of 28 new funds were established in the domestic market, with a combined issuance of 18.218 billion shares [6] - There was a slight outflow of funds from stock ETFs, primarily from TMT, financial real estate, and ChiNext-themed ETFs, while large-cap broad-based ETFs saw significant inflows from passive funds [6] Group 3: Economic Data and Bond Market - Key economic indicators showed further decline in November 2025, with industrial production growth slowing year-on-year but improving month-on-month [6] - Fixed asset investment saw an expanded year-on-year decline, although the month-on-month decline narrowed in November [6] - The consumer spending growth rate continued to decline, with month-on-month growth weaker than seasonal trends; the bond market is expected to become more optimistic as the funding environment remains loose [6] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Microelectrophysiology (688351.SH) is a leading domestic player in cardiac electrophysiology, achieving revenue of 413 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25.51%, and a net profit of 52 million yuan, up 815.36% [7] - Zoli Pharmaceutical (300181.SZ) plans to acquire a range of trace element injection assets from Future Pharmaceutical, enhancing its product structure and leveraging complementary advantages for potential revenue growth [7]