责任编辑：史丽君 责任编辑：史丽君 摩根大通发布研报称，内地三大电讯营运商宣布调整增值税，涉及移动数据、短信/彩信以及互联网宽 带服务的业务税率，将由6%上调至9%。该行预计，有关调整将对中国移动（00941）、中国电信 （00728）及中国联通（00762）的2026年净利润构为7.1%、12.6%及11.9%影响，并估计对中移动的影 响在三间营运商中最小，因其毛利较高。 不过，该行认为实际盈利冲击可能较估算温和，因为三大电讯商正处于国企改革进程中，而当局为国企 订立财务指标KPI，包括利润增长、股本回报率改善及健康的现金流。预期电讯商可透过不同措施抵销 增值税调整的影响，包括优化营运开支、加价及控制资本开支等。 摩根大通发布研报称，内地三大电讯营运商宣布调整增值税，涉及移动数据、短信/彩信以及互联网宽 带服务的业务税率，将由6%上调至9%。该行预计，有关调整将对中国移动（00941）、中国电信 （00728）及中国联通（00762）的2026年净利润构为7.1%、12.6%及11.9%影响，并估计对中移动的影 响在三间营运商中最小，因其毛利较高。 不过，该行认为实际盈利冲击可能较估算温和，因为三大电讯商正 ...

不过，该行认为实际盈利冲击可能较估算温和，因为三大电讯商正处于国企改革进程中，而当局为国企 订立财务指标KPI，包括利润增长、股本回报率改善及健康的现金流。预期电讯商可透过不同措施抵销 增值税调整的影响，包括优化营运开支、加价及控制资本开支等。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，内地三大电讯营运商宣布调整增值税，涉及移动数据、短 信/彩信以及互联网宽带服务的业务税率，将由6%上调至9%。该行预计，有关调整将对中国移动 (00941)、中国电信(00728)及中国联通(00762)的2026年净利润构为7.1%、12.6%及11.9%影响，并估计对 中移动的影响在三间营运商中最小，因其毛利较高。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，内地三大电讯营运商日前(1日)宣布增值税调整。自今年1月1日 起，涉及移动数据、短信/彩信以及互联网宽带服务的业务税率，将由6%上调至9%。该行料对中资三大 电信营运商盈利有显著负面影响，因上述相关收入占三家电信营运商2025年预估服务收入的45%至 60%。 根据该行测算，此次增值税调整将使电讯营运商的服务收入受到约1.5至2%的影响。在假设25%企业所 得税率，且不考虑其他成本或税收抵扣措施的情况下，该行指中国移动(00941)、中国电信(00728)及中 国联通(00762)按2025年纯利预测估算影响，净利润将分别受到约9%、17.9%及18.2%的影响。 根据公告，中资三大电讯营运商将持续提升营运效率，专注于高质量发展，并加快向人工智能与云业务 等新兴领域的转型，以缓解此次税率上调带来的冲击。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market demonstrated strong resilience in January 2026, with significant net inflows from southbound funds driving the Hang Seng Index up by 6.85% to 27,387.11 points, marking a nearly 7% monthly increase [1][2]. Fund Flow Analysis - In January, southbound fund flows exhibited clear phase characteristics, with net inflows exceeding 50 billion HKD on multiple days in early January due to favorable domestic policies, RMB appreciation, and AI industry valuation recovery expectations [2]. - Mid-January saw a temporary decline in fund accumulation due to rising geopolitical risks and valuation corrections in certain sectors, leading to net sell-offs in cyclical stocks like China Mobile and Zijin Mining [2]. - By late January, the Hang Seng Index successfully broke through the 27,000-point mark, supported by surging AI computing demand and better-than-expected earnings from leading consumer companies, with daily net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 30 billion HKD [2]. Industry Performance - The Hong Kong stock market in January reflected a "high prosperity track and policy dividend sector resonance" pattern, with the technology sector leading the gains [3]. - Notable performers in the technology sector included Longi Green Energy, which surged by 61.90% due to increased global AI data center demand, and Zhiyuan AI, which saw a 94.66% increase post-listing [3]. - In the consumer sector, new consumption leader Mingming Hen Mang rose by 73.71%, supported by store expansion and improved profitability, while Pop Mart benefited from a surge in demand for IP derivatives, increasing by 19.13% [3]. - In the financial and real estate sectors, China Life surged by 27.39% due to governance optimization and improved capital expectations, while China Jinmao and New World Development rose by 42.98% and 56.53%, respectively, benefiting from policy optimizations [3]. Fund Outflow Insights - The materials and telecommunications sectors faced significant pressure, with Zijin Mining experiencing a net sell-off of 4.565 billion HKD and China Mobile declining by 2.33% due to intensified industry competition, leading to a total southbound fund reduction of over 16.9 billion HKD [5]. Institutional Perspectives - Multiple institutions noted that the performance of the Hong Kong stock market in January validated the logic of "fundamental recovery + liquidity resonance," with expectations for continued structural rebounds in February [6]. - Everbright Securities highlighted that the current market is in an "earnings vacuum period," with high growth expectations in new economy sectors supported by policy catalysts [6]. - CITIC Securities advised monitoring the potential impact of a peak in lock-up expirations on liquidity in February, while emphasizing the allocation value of quality leaders like Tencent and Alibaba [6]. - Huatai Securities pointed out that Hong Kong stock valuations remain low globally, with a risk premium rate of 3.99% for the Hang Seng Index, significantly higher than the S&P 500, suggesting a dual drive of "profit growth + valuation enhancement" as southbound and foreign fund inflows become more balanced [6]. IPO Market Activity - The IPO market in Hong Kong remained active in January, with 12 companies listed by January 26, raising a total of 34.747 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 480.87% [7]. - Notable listings included domestic GPU company Birun Technology and AI model company Zhiyuan, attracting long-term investments from international funds [7]. - The market anticipates that the IPO fundraising scale in 2026 could exceed 300 billion HKD, with hard technology enterprises continuing to dominate the listing trend [7].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that China's three major telecom operators achieved an overall net profit growth of approximately 5% year-on-year in the first half of this year, primarily supported by cost optimization measures [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The three telecom operators have increased their dividend payout ratios year-on-year, demonstrating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [1] - Morgan Stanley estimates that the H-share dividend yield for the three telecom operators remains attractive at 5% to 6%, with China Mobile having the highest yield at 6% [1] Group 2: Revenue Trends - The year-on-year growth of cloud revenue for the three telecom operators has significantly slowed from an estimated 17% to 35% in 2024 to 5% to 10% in the first half of this year, attributed to increased market share of internet companies and a slowdown in digitalization demand from state-owned enterprises [1] Group 3: Investment Outlook - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, all rated as "Overweight," due to strong dividend returns, profit growth, and potential upside in cloud revenue [1] - China Telecom is highlighted as the preferred stock due to its highest proportion of cloud business and the resilience of its traditional mobile and broadband services [1]

Group 1 - DBS has raised the target price for China Unicom (00762.HK) H-shares from HKD 11.1 to HKD 12.1, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The company confirmed a full-year dividend of RMB 0.40 per share, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, with a payout ratio rising by 5 percentage points to 60% [1] - Although China Unicom is the only major mainland telecom operator without a committed payout ratio, DBS expects the company to gradually increase the payout ratio to 65% by next year [1]