证券研究报告 | 公司更新 | 互联网电商 阿里巴巴-W(09988) 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 05 日 阿里千问破局，云业务利润率提升可期 ——阿里巴巴更新报告 投资要点 阿里巴巴 25Q3 的资本开支达到 314.28 亿人民币，同比增幅达到 85.12%，处于 高速增长期。阿里巴巴 25Q2、25Q3 连续两个季度自由现金流下降引发市场担 忧。公司 25Q3 自由现金流为-218.4 亿，主要系 "外卖大战"和大幅增加资本开 支的影响。截至 25Q3，阿里巴巴集团账面仍有 2923 亿人民币净现金和其他流动 性投资，为新业务投入提供保障。 阿里云的 EBITA Margin 相较于亚马逊 AWS、微软智能云的经营利润率还有较大 的差距，但可以从 google cloud 过去的经验印证：随着规模的提升（规模效应的 释放），公有云业务的利润提升弹性大。这也意味着随着阿里云规模的增长，在 跨越早期高投入的阶段后，长期利润率提升的确定性较高，且利润率提升空间 大。与此同时，阿里云出海也会带来规模提升、盈利能力提升的影响。 ❑ 检验与催化：阿里巴巴智能云业务集团利润率提升。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 我们预 ...

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft is positioned for strong growth and substantial shareholder returns due to its significant stake in OpenAI and the growth of its Azure cloud business, with a market capitalization exceeding $3.5 trillion [1]. Financial Performance - Microsoft reported impressive financial results with all core metrics achieving double-digit growth, driven by a robust cloud business, with revenue increasing by 18% year-over-year (17% excluding currency effects), approaching $77.7 billion [3]. - The operating profit margin reached 99%, with operating profit at $88 billion, and net profit of $77.7 billion, resulting in diluted earnings per share of $3.72. The current price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 33 times [3]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure - Microsoft returned $10.7 billion to shareholders this quarter, with a total yield slightly above 1% and a dividend yield of only 0.66% [6]. - Capital expenditures surged to $44.9 billion to meet the growing demand from Azure, with expectations for continued growth in capital spending [6]. - Free cash flow reached $55.7 billion, supported by revenue growth and a leasing model that mitigates the impact of AI-related disruptions [6]. Business Segment Performance - The cloud business is the core growth engine, with commercial orders driven by OpenAI increasing by 122% year-over-year, while Azure's revenue grew nearly 99% [9][10]. - The productivity and business processes segment continued to grow, benefiting from a slowdown in cost growth and improved gross margins [10]. - The Windows OEM and gaming segments showed the slowest growth, with Windows OEM revenue increasing by 6%, primarily due to a one-time boost from the transition from Windows 10 to Windows 11 [10]. Core Advantages - Microsoft has three main advantages for future development: 1. Antitrust compliance advantage, having successfully navigated past antitrust challenges, allowing for greater operational flexibility [12]. 2. A diversified business portfolio that includes Windows, Azure, ChatGPT, GitHub, LinkedIn, Xbox, and Blizzard, enhancing resilience against market changes [12]. 3. Valuation advantage, with a non-GAAP annualized earnings per share of $16.5 and a price-to-earnings ratio of about 30 times, making it more attractive compared to competitors like Google [13]. Conclusion - Despite a market capitalization of $3.6 trillion, Microsoft is believed to have significant growth potential, supported by its diversified business model and strong performance in the AI sector, particularly with Azure and ChatGPT [17][18].

（数据来源：交易所、Wind，数据均截至25/12/15；11月以来时间区间为25/11/1-25/12/15，基金规模于 24/12/31为200亿元） 资金积极流入的背后，或反映出市场对板块中长期基本面的认可。当前国内大模型竞争深化，头部互联 网公司于2025年11月启动千问App公测，并在多场景加速融合。端侧AI成为突破重点，AI眼镜等智能硬 件获互联网及车企巨头布局。2025年三季度财报显示，互联网龙头营收普遍回暖，其中"AI+云"业务成 为普遍强调的增长亮点，印证AI战略或已进入贡献收入阶段。 （资料来源：上市公司财报，截至2025/12/15） 近期港股受南向资金因公募基准新规回流、IPO解禁高峰到来、日本央行加息预期走强扰动海外流动性 扰动等因素的影响明显走弱。但伴随着Al板块垂直场景应用与商业化落地，科技产业叙事逐渐从情绪驱 动估值修复转向价值创造阶段，未来盈利空间或得到进一步打开。因此在市场调整之际，资金却呈现逆 势布局港股科技板块的态势。 （信息来源：招商证券-港股承压 随IPO压力缓解及盈利修复等有望迎跨年行情-25/12/15） Wind数据显示，2025年11月以来所有跟踪恒生科技指 ...

截至收盘，恒生港股通新经济指数、中证港股通消费主题指数均下跌0.4%，中证港股通医药卫生综合指数下跌0.5%，恒生科技指数下跌0.8%，中证港股通 互联网指数下跌0.9%。Wind数据显示，截至昨日，恒生科技ETF易方达（513010）和港股通互联网ETF（513040）月内净流入分别为10.8亿元和7.0亿元。 有分析指出，随着美联储顺利完成年内第三次降息，海外流动性环境趋于友好，前期压制港股表现的外部不确定性因素正在逐步缓和；国内外科技龙头三季 度以来的业绩表现稳健，AI研发、云业务与智能应用的商业化落地持续推进；在估值仍处于相对合理区间、外部宏观变量改善、产业逻辑更加明晰的背景 下，本轮调整反而进一步提升了港股科技板块的性价比，中长期维度看，科技资产仍是港股最具确定性的主线之一。 跟踪中证港股通互联网指数 该指数由港股通范围内30家互 联网龙头公司的股票组成,主 小年完生了 十节日记女节号 以伯蚁世産収工『公刊サー代 技主题高度相关的、市值最大 的30只股票组成,信息技术及 可选消费行业合计占比超90% 该指数泪 0 - 8 港股通医药ETF 低费率 跟踪中证港股通医药卫生综合指 该指数由港股通范围内医 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices surged to a historical high, with international spot silver prices exceeding $54 per ounce, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions and strong industrial demand [2] - The U.S. short-term financing market is under pressure, with a warning from banks that the Federal Reserve may need to intervene to alleviate liquidity tightness, as key short-term interest rates remain high [2] - A-shares saw a collective rise in major indices, with lithium battery and energy storage sectors becoming market hotspots, supported by rising upstream product prices and favorable policies [2] Group 2 - Oracle's stock price has been declining, with investor confidence shaken due to concerns over the sustainability and profitability of its AI and cloud businesses, as internal data revealed a low cloud business gross margin of around 14% [3] - China's central bank reported positive financial statistics for October, with broad money (M2) and social financing growth rates remaining high, indicating a robust financial support for the real economy [3] - 22 stocks received buy ratings from institutions, with some showing significant upside potential, particularly in the automotive and electronics sectors [3] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical stage for the capital market to promote high-quality development, with a focus on supporting technological innovation and fostering high-quality listed companies [5] - Bitcoin's price recovery has been sluggish, with institutional buyers retreating, leading to a net outflow of approximately $2.8 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past month [5] - Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing announced the termination of its major asset restructuring review, which involved purchasing a 66.46% stake in Jiangsu Keda [5] Group 4 - Several high-performing stocks have issued risk warnings, indicating potential market overheating and irrational speculation, with some stocks being suspended for review due to excessive price increases [6]

Group 1 - The upcoming week is crucial for the U.S. tech industry, with major companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple, and Amazon set to release earnings reports, while Nvidia will hold its GTC conference [2][3] - Market sentiment is optimistic, with Goldman Sachs traders expressing that the current sentiment around large tech earnings is the most favorable seen in a long time, anticipating a potential rally in tech stocks if earnings meet expectations [3][12] Group 2 - Key focus points for the earnings season include cloud business growth and AI capital expenditures. Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure have shown over 30% growth, while Amazon AWS's growth lags at 18%. Investors are particularly interested in whether AWS can accelerate its growth this quarter [6] - Capital expenditures will be a significant indicator of tech giants' ambitions in AI, with attention on investments in data centers and AI infrastructure from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta. Meta's ability to sustain its AI-related spending through advertising revenue will be a key point of interest [6] Group 3 - Analyst expectations for major tech companies are high. Apple is projected to report revenues of $102.088 billion, a 7.5% year-over-year increase, with EPS expected at $1.76, up 81%. Microsoft is expected to report revenues of $75.387 billion, a 14.9% increase, with EPS at $3.66, up 10.9%. Alphabet is projected to report revenues of $100.11 billion, a 13.4% increase, with EPS at $2.27, up 7% [8] - Nvidia's GTC conference is another focal point, with CEO Jensen Huang's keynote expected to reignite market enthusiasm for AI technologies, serving as a significant event for the AI ecosystem [10] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs has a positive outlook for the market, emphasizing that any bearish sentiment will face challenges from the Federal Reserve, U.S. fiscal stimulus, and the substantial spending of large tech companies. The firm has ranked major tech stocks by confidence, with Google, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, and Apple leading the list [12][14] - Meta is expected to report revenues of $49.388 billion, a 21.7% increase, with EPS at $6.72, up 11.4%. Amazon is projected to report revenues of $177.7 billion, an 11.8% increase, with EPS at $1.56, up 9% [15]

Group 1 - The upcoming week is termed "Super Week" for the US tech industry, with major companies like Microsoft, Google, Meta, Apple, and Amazon set to release earnings reports, while Nvidia will hold its GTC conference [1][4] - Market sentiment is highly optimistic, with Goldman Sachs trader John Flood noting that the current sentiment and positioning around large tech earnings is the most favorable seen in a long time, anticipating a potential rise in tech-led indices if earnings meet expectations [1][6] Group 2 - Key focus points for the earnings season include cloud growth and AI spending, with Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure showing over 30% growth, while Amazon AWS lags at 18%, raising concerns among shareholders [2] - Capital expenditure will be a crucial indicator of the tech giants' ambitions in AI, with particular attention on Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta's investments in data centers and AI infrastructure [2] - Analyst expectations for the performance of tech giants are notably high, as indicated by S&P Global Market Intelligence [3] Group 3 - Earnings expectations for major companies are as follows: Apple is projected to report $102.088 billion in revenue (up 7.5%) and $1.76 EPS (up 81%); Microsoft is expected to report $75.387 billion in revenue (up 14.9%) and $3.66 EPS (up 10.9%); Alphabet is projected to report $100.11 billion in revenue (up 13.4%) and $2.27 EPS (up 7%); Meta is expected to report $49.388 billion in revenue (up 21.7%) and $6.72 EPS (up 11.4%); Amazon is projected to report $177.7 billion in revenue (up 11.8%) and $1.56 EPS (up 9%) [5] Group 4 - The GTC conference by Nvidia is anticipated to reignite market enthusiasm for AI, with CEO Jensen Huang's keynote expected to highlight the latest trends and technologies in the AI ecosystem [4]

Core Insights - SAP SE reported its Q3 2025 financial results, with cloud business revenue falling short of analyst expectations, leading to a post-market stock decline of 4% [1] - The company faced challenges from trade disputes and a sluggish sales environment, impacting overall performance [1] Financial Performance - IFRS operating profit increased by 12% to €2.49 billion, with a profit margin rise of 1.3 percentage points [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit rose by 14% to €2.57 billion, a 19% increase at constant currency, with a profit margin increase of 1.8 percentage points [1] - Basic earnings per share (IFRS) grew by 37% to €1.72, while non-IFRS earnings per share increased by 29% to €1.59, exceeding expectations [1] - Operating cash flow for Q3 increased by 7% to €1.5 billion, and free cash flow rose by 5% to €1.27 billion [1] Cloud Business Performance - Backlog orders for the cloud business increased by 23% to €18.84 billion, with a 27% increase at constant currency [1] - Cloud revenue grew by 22% to €5.29 billion, also a 27% increase at constant currency, but fell short of expectations [1] - Software licensing revenue dropped by 43% to €160 million, a 42% decrease at constant currency [1] - Total revenue from cloud and software increased by 8% to €8.02 billion, with a 12% increase at constant currency [1] - Service revenue rose by 2% to €1.06 billion, a 6% increase at constant currency, contributing to an overall revenue increase of 7% to €9.08 billion, which is an 11% increase at constant currency [1] - Cloud business gross profit increased by 24% to €3.95 billion (IFRS) and €3.97 billion (non-IFRS), with a 28% increase at constant currency [1] Future Guidance - For the full year 2025, cloud business revenue is expected to be at the lower end of the forecast range, between €21.6 billion and €21.9 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 26% to 28% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is projected to be at the upper end of the forecast range, between €10.3 billion and €10.6 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 26% to 30% [1] - Free cash flow is anticipated to be between €8 billion and €8.2 billion [1] - Cloud and software revenue is expected to be between €33.1 billion and €33.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11% to 13% [1] Market Context - SAP's stock has underperformed recently, with its American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) declining approximately 9% over the past three months [1] - Following the earnings report, the stock experienced a post-market drop of about 4%, which later narrowed [1] - The company had previously been positioned to challenge the "Big Seven" in the U.S., with its stock tripling over the past three years and contributing significantly to the Frankfurt DAX index's gains last year [1] - Investors are particularly focused on the progress of SAP's cloud business, with management previously warning about the impacts of trade wars and a weak dollar on customer decision-making [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's stock price has increased by over 4%, driven by optimistic forecasts regarding its cloud business growth, capital expenditure expansion, and internationalization strategy [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Morgan Stanley has raised its capital expenditure forecast for Alibaba from RMB 100 billion to 108 billion to a new range of RMB 130 billion to 135 billion for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028 [1] - The expected addition of 10 to 15 GW of data center capacity by 2032 indicates a significant investment in infrastructure [1] Group 2: Cloud Business Growth - The forecast for Alibaba's cloud business growth has been adjusted from 30% to 32% for fiscal year 2026 and from 30% to 40% for fiscal year 2027, reflecting increased optimism [1] - The management has highlighted robust demand, with tokens doubling every 2 to 3 months, indicating strong market interest [1] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Alibaba announced several new initiatives during the Cloud Summit, including the launch of the flagship model Qwen3-Max and upgrades to the Bailian Agent intelligent platform [1] - Strategic collaboration with NVIDIA in the field of physical AI and the establishment of data centers in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands mark significant steps in Alibaba's international expansion [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a resurgence in AI investments, with the core ETF, Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770), showing a price increase of 1.54% and a significant premium indicating strong buying interest [1][2] - Xiaomi is set to launch its new flagship smartphone series, Xiaomi 17, which includes three high-end models. The series aims for a comprehensive upgrade in product capabilities and will feature the new Xiaomi Surge OS 3, enhancing system fluidity and AI capabilities [2] - The Hong Kong Internet sector remains a resilient investment theme, supported by loose liquidity and strong growth in cloud services from major players like Alibaba and Tencent, which are exceeding expectations in a favorable industry environment [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hong Kong Internet ETF (513770) include Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, Meituan, SenseTime, JD Health, Alibaba Health, Bilibili, Kuaishou, and Kingdee International, indicating a diverse portfolio of leading tech companies [2] - Recent market signals, such as the MACD golden cross, suggest positive momentum for stocks like Xiaomi, Bilibili, Kuaishou, Tencent, and Meituan, with notable price increases observed [4]