2025 年 11 月 28 日 开源金股，12 月推荐 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 策略：近期调整结束后成长或仍占优 本轮调整结束后有望延续前期成长风格，把握 AI 硬件优质 Alpha 的同时重视科 技潜在的高低切：军工、传媒（游戏）、AI 应用、港股互联网、电力设备等。 商贸零售：上美股份（2145.HK） Q4 主推产品有望快速放量，双十一表现亮眼。 传媒：巨人网络（002558.SZ） 圣诞、元旦活动或推动《超自然行动组》DAU、流水等关键数据突破新高。 电子：北方华创（002371.SZ） 财务压力得到改善，长鑫与长存上市进展公布、国内 FAB 开启招标、地缘政治 带动自主可控情绪加强。 金融工程：基于行业轮动模型的 12 月行业多头 基于行业动力学模型，12 月行业组合为：美容护理，社会服务，家用电器，石 油石化，商贸零售，通信，交通运输，汽车，传媒，食品饮料。 海外：阿里巴巴-W（9988.HK） 积极投入 AI 基础设施建设并计划追加更多投入有望驱动云业务增长提速，淘天 短期加大闪购投入，用户 ...

Core Insights - Institutional attention has rebounded, particularly in the electronics, power equipment, and construction decoration sectors, indicating a renewed interest in these industries [3][8][9] Industry Performance Recent Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index have shown significant fluctuations over the past year, with the ChiNext Index experiencing a notable decline [1] - The top-performing sectors recently include telecommunications, comprehensive services, electronics, retail, and home appliances, with telecommunications leading at a 4.638% increase [1] Underperforming Sectors - Conversely, the sectors that have underperformed include defense, social services, media, oil and petrochemicals, and banking, with defense showing the largest decline at -2.253% [2] Company-Specific Insights Media Sector: HuiLiang Technology (01860.HK) - The company reported a significant increase in adjusted profits, driven by AI empowerment, with Q3 revenue reaching $5.32 billion, a 28% year-on-year increase [4][14] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was $0.24 billion, reflecting a 126% increase year-on-year [14] Overseas Technology: Alibaba Group (09988.HK) - Alibaba's cloud business is experiencing strong demand, with revenue growth expected to improve due to AI infrastructure investments [5][17] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 to $104.3 billion, $131.3 billion, and $164.7 billion respectively, reflecting a significant downward revision [5][18] Home Appliances: Hesai Technology (HSAI.O) - The company has launched a new version of its ATX product, which is expected to enhance revenue growth due to increased orders in the ADAS sector [6][22] - Q3 revenue reached $7.95 billion, a 47% increase year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 464% [22][24] Institutional Research Insights Research Trends - The total number of institutional research engagements has slightly increased, with a notable rise in interest for electronics, power equipment, and construction decoration sectors [9][10] - Specific companies such as Huichuan Technology and Fengyuan Co. have garnered significant market attention, indicating a focus on high-potential stocks [11] Key Company Developments - HuiHan Co. has been frequently researched due to its early advantage in the eCall system, which is expected to see stable demand from 2027 onwards [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that 招银国际 has lowered Alibaba's (BABA.US) target price by 1.4% to $206.4 while maintaining a "Buy" rating, indicating continued optimism about the company's prospects in the artificial intelligence sector [1] - Alibaba's cloud business revenue grew by 34% in the second fiscal quarter, surpassing both the bank's and market expectations, suggesting strong customer demand that is likely to support high revenue growth in the coming quarters [1] - For the third fiscal quarter, management anticipates some fluctuations in Customer Management Revenue (CMR) due to a high base effect, but the bank believes the plan to significantly reduce losses in the instant retail business aligns with market expectations, although there may still be concerns regarding the progress of synergies from this business [1]

智通财经APP获悉，富瑞发布研究报告称，阿里巴巴-W(09988)第二季度总收入分别高于市场及该行预 测1.1%及2.4%，给予"买入"评级。目标价230港元。 数据显示，阿里巴巴期内中国电商集团客户管理收入(CMR)同比增长10%；云业务收入同比增长34%； 经调整EBITA利润率达9%；整体劲调整EBITA达91亿元人民币；资本开支达315亿元人民币。 ...

数据显示，阿里巴巴期内中国电商集团客户管理收入(CMR)同比增长10%；云业务收入同比增长34%； 经调整EBITA利润率达9%；整体劲调整EBITA达91亿元人民币；资本开支达315亿元人民币。 富瑞发布研究报告称，阿里巴巴-W(09988)第二季度总收入分别高于市场及该行预测1.1%及2.4%，给 予"买入"评级。目标价230港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a strong demand for cloud services and improvements in flash sales user experience, while acknowledging short-term pressure on e-commerce [4][6] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 have been lowered to 104.3 billion, 131.3 billion, and 164.7 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -34.0%, +25.8%, and +25.5% [4][5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on long-term ecological synergy driven by AI investments and cloud service expansion [4][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - FY2026 revenue is projected at 1,098.75 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [8] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 is expected to be 104.38 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.0% [8] - The diluted EPS for FY2026 is forecasted at 5.7 RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25.1, 19.5, and 15.2 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 respectively [8]

瑞银发表报告指，阿里巴巴9月底止次财季收入按年升5%至2480亿元，胜预期3%。经调整EBITA 91亿 元，胜该行预期的65亿元，受惠于电商及所有其他业务利润率优于预期。以业务划分，上季阿里中国电 商集团(淘天及实时零售)表现胜预期；在AI需求强劲支持下，云业务收入按年升34%亦胜预期。 瑞银提到，云业务展望属市场最关注地方，市场预期12月底止第三财季收入增长29%，明年3月底止全 年度增长料28%。该行予阿里美股目标价216美元，评级"买入"。 ...

招银国际发表报告指，阿里巴巴2026财年第二季度营收达2478亿元，按年增长4.8%，分别较该行及市 场预期高出2.7%、1.1%。期内云业务营收按年增长34%，增速好于该行预期及市场预期的30%、28%。 管理层强调当前客户需求旺盛，认为这一态势有望支撑未来多个季度云业务保持高速营收增长。该行看 好阿里作为人工智能赛道的核心受益企业之一，维持"买入"评级，美股目标价206.4美元。 ...

摩根大通称，阿里巴巴综合盈利预计在2025年Q3迎来拐点，并于Q4显著复苏。核心驱动力来自外卖业务亏损大幅收窄，预计Q4环比有望收 窄40%至210亿元；同时，云业务在强劲AI需求下加速增长，预计Q4同比有望增长37%。 摩根大通11月26日发布的研报表示，阿里巴巴的战略演变正进入第二阶段，增长模式正从过去的用户规模驱动，转向盈利能力更强的效率驱 动，盈利拐点或已出现。 该行分析师团队"预计阿里巴巴的综合盈利在2025年3季度（2025年9月结束季度）达到拐点，并随着公司从用户规模驱动的增长模式转变为盈利能力 更强的效率驱动模式而于2025年4季度开始显著复苏"。 在市场份额方面，该业务保持稳定，报告指出"外卖业务目前的GMV市场份额仍保持在约40%"。更重要的是，其亏损正在快速收窄。摩根大 通预计，"外卖闪购业务亏损将进一步收窄，从9月结束季度的350亿元收窄至12月结束季度的210亿元"。 阿里巴巴的战略重心正发生根本性转变，从过去"不惜代价的增长"演变为"高效增长"。 报告强调，这项业务的改善并非孤立的，其客户留存率和订单频率的提高，正"与传统电商业务和新兴闪购业务产生强大的跨平台协同效 应，推动流量、 ...

中银国际发布研报称，阿里巴巴-W(09988)9月底止2026财年第二季业绩稳固，核心业务依旧强劲。期内 总收入同比增5%，主要贡献来自稳健的中国核心电商客户管理收入(CMR)(同比增10%)，及加速增长的 云业务(同比增34%)，并对上述两项业务持续看好。予阿里(BABA.US)美股目标价187美元，港股目标价 182港元;美股港股同维持"买入"评级。该行轻微下调阿里2027至2028财年总收入预测1%至2%，大致维 持净利润预测不变，但将中国核心电商盈利预测轻微下调1%至2%，以反映收入预期被降低。 ...