Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent fluctuations in the equity markets, particularly focusing on the performance of the Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets, and highlights three main variables affecting market sentiment, including Alibaba's rating downgrade, the decline in precious metals, and liquidity concerns [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific markets showed weakness, with Hong Kong stocks collectively declining and the Japanese market also underperforming, leading to a drop in the A50 index by nearly 1% [2]. - The Nikkei 225 index closed down 1.06% at 51,961.98 points, with significant declines in major stocks such as Nintendo (-4.65%) and Sony (-3.28%) [3]. - The Hang Seng Index fell significantly, losing over 355 points and dropping below 26,400 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index declined by over 2% [3]. Group 2: Alibaba's Rating Downgrade - Freedom Capital Markets downgraded Alibaba's rating from "Buy" to "Hold," reducing the target price from $180 to $140 per share [4]. - This downgrade occurred despite Alibaba reporting quarterly earnings that exceeded expectations, with cloud services being a key growth driver [5]. - Concerns were raised regarding the rapid increase in capital expenditures related to the cloud business and the relatively moderate growth of its retail business compared to competitors [5]. Group 3: Precious Metals Decline - Precious metals prices fell as investors took profits, compounded by a strengthening dollar ahead of key employment data releases [5]. - The market sentiment for precious metals was pressured, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at least twice this year [5]. - The adjustment in the stock of Zijin Mining, which had previously surged, contributed to pressure on the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. Group 4: Liquidity Concerns - According to CITIC Securities, there is a liquidity gap due to seasonal fluctuations and increased government debt financing, which could tighten liquidity in the banking system [6]. - The central bank's actions, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities, will determine whether the liquidity situation will trend towards tightening [6]. - The ongoing foreign exchange settlement by commercial banks may consume excess reserves in the banking system, leading to structural liquidity pressures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent fluctuations in the equity markets, particularly focusing on the performance of the Hong Kong and Japanese markets, and highlights three main variables affecting market sentiment, including Alibaba's rating downgrade, the decline in precious metals, and liquidity concerns [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific markets showed weakness, with Hong Kong stocks collectively declining and the Japanese market also underperforming, leading to a nearly 1% drop in the A50 index [1][2]. - The Nikkei 225 index closed down 1.06% at 51,961.98 points, with significant declines in major stocks such as Nintendo (-4.65%) and Sony (-3.28%) [2]. - The Hang Seng Index fell significantly, losing over 355 points and dropping below 26,400 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index saw a decline of over 2% [2]. Group 2: Alibaba's Rating Downgrade - Freedom Capital Markets downgraded Alibaba's rating from "Buy" to "Hold," reducing the target price from $180 to $140 per share, despite the company reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings [3]. - Concerns were raised regarding the rapid increase in capital expenditures related to Alibaba's cloud business, with uncertain return prospects [3]. - The company's ability to expand its retail and cloud businesses without significantly increasing costs will be a key factor influencing its performance in the coming quarters [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals experienced a decline as investors took profits, compounded by a strengthening dollar ahead of key employment data releases [3]. - The market sentiment for precious metals was pressured, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at least twice this year [3]. - The adjustment in the stock of Zijin Mining, which had previously surged, contributed to some pressure on the Shanghai Composite Index [3]. Group 4: Liquidity Concerns - According to CITIC Securities, there is a liquidity gap due to seasonal fluctuations in M0 and increased government debt financing, which could lead to structural tightening in the banking system [4]. - The central bank's actions, including reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), will determine whether the liquidity situation trends towards tightening [4]. - Continuous foreign exchange settlements by commercial banks may consume excess reserves in the banking system, impacting overall liquidity [4].

文 | 道总有理 城市想转型，企业想"拓展"？ 梳理一下互联网买地图景，不难发现：北京、上海、广州、深圳、香港……一众超一线城市，仍旧是大厂们的第一选 择。头部企业在核心城市核心地段的"囤地"，其实也是有战略层面上的长远考量。 2025年，互联网行业掀起一阵"买地潮"。 下半年，阿里巴巴与蚂蚁共同出资72亿港元，在香港下铜锣湾港岛壹号中心共13层商业写字楼。12月份，京东购入香港 中环的中国建设银行大厦部分办公楼层；抖音也以12.14亿元竞得广州市海珠区琶洲中二区AH041101地块。 据悉，仅2025年，字节就有3处总部大楼竣工启用。同时，在上海的杨浦滨江，美团、B站、抖音三大核心项目将于 2026年同步竣工，而贝壳则直接跨界涉足开发领域，并一举拿下成都"地王"。 事实上，不少互联网企业都曾热衷买地置业，不完全统计显示，搜狐、新浪、网易，到BAT再到字节、美团、小米、B 站、快手……大厂一掷千金，中小企业也不吝啬，包括延趣网络、飞鱼科技、三七互娱（维权）、诗悦网络、4399、贪 玩游戏…… 过去几年，互联网一度钟爱轻资产运营，时至今日，企业开始重金囤地，一场席卷互联网行业的"买地运动"背后，到底 藏着什么样 ...

可以看出，巴菲特的价值投资理念并非无法适配科技股。比如，苹果品牌的用户黏性、持续可预测的盈 利、较高的竞争壁垒等，均符合价值投资的核心标准，这也是巴菲特选择重仓的原因。同时，近期对 Alphabet这一更"纯粹"科技股的建仓，也与价值投资逻辑保持一致。Alphabet拥有覆盖广告、云业务、 搜索等核心板块的多元盈利模式，"护城河"深厚，人工智能业务增长确定性也较高，这皆是其获得巴菲 特青睐的因素。 另一方面，巴菲特退休前的持仓调整，也为AI时代的价值投资树立了标杆，重新定义了科技领域"护城 河"的内涵，更为科技公司发展提出了更高要求。 毫无疑问，在AI浪潮席卷全球的背景下，科技股成为市场关注的焦点。传统的价值投资如何适配新的 AI时代，巴菲特退休前的调仓给出了答案。 在技术迭代更快、竞争更加复杂的情况下，真正的价值投资内核仍未改变，科技企业的投资价值蕴含于 其技术、品牌的深厚"护城河"，可预测的盈利模式以及优良的企业管理等。 曾坚持不投资自己"无法理解"的科技或互联网公司的巴菲特，却在退休前大举加仓谷歌，在笔者看来， 这给了我们两方面启示。 一方面，从早期对科技股的回避，到后续的择机布局，再到近期的持仓转变， ...

责任编辑：王许宁 私募股权公司布鲁克菲尔德正在启动自己的云业务，与亚马逊等科技巨头竞争，辩称它可以降低开发人 工智能的成本。该公司长期投资于基础设施和能源，正成为第一家试图将数据中心内的芯片直接租给开 发商的大型投资公司，而不仅仅是拥有或开发围绕它们的物理结构。云业务将与该公司新设立的100亿 美元人工智能基金挂钩。 私募股权公司布鲁克菲尔德正在启动自己的云业务，与亚马逊等科技巨头竞争，辩称它可以降低开发人 工智能的成本。该公司长期投资于基础设施和能源，正成为第一家试图将数据中心内的芯片直接租给开 发商的大型投资公司，而不仅仅是拥有或开发围绕它们的物理结构。云业务将与该公司新设立的100亿 美元人工智能基金挂钩。 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a "Davis Double Play" in 2026, driven by valuation recovery, profit growth, and a return to main themes, particularly in the TMT sector [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The report establishes a framework of "Four AI Main Lines" to help investors navigate opportunities in the Hong Kong tech sector during the AI era [1] - It suggests a strategic investment rhythm of "computing power foundation → application blossoming → terminal and robotics realization" to select leading companies under each main line [1] Group 2: Main Line One - Internet Giants - AI is driving internet giants to shift from traffic competition to ecosystem capability competition, with cloud business capital expenditure doubling and advertising click-through rates increasing by 15%-20% due to AI [2] - Key investment focuses include Tencent Holdings, Alibaba-W, and Kuaishou, which are positioned to leverage AI for ecosystem development [2] Group 3: Main Line Two - AI Computing Power Industry Chain - Leading companies continue to exceed earnings expectations, with strong capital expenditure from cloud vendors and tight chip supply countering "bubble theories" [3] - The report identifies three areas of certainty: communication networking benefiting from global tech upgrades, semiconductor manufacturing for domestic substitution, and key equipment and materials for computing power upgrades [3] Group 4: Main Line Three - AI Applications - AI application investments are entering a phase where performance is critical, with clear signals of commercialization acceleration in SaaS, content ecosystems, and advertising [4] - The evolution of enterprise tools into "intelligent agents" is driving ARPU growth, while programmatic advertising is beginning to release profits [4] Group 5: Main Line Four - AI Hardware and Robotics - 2026 is projected to be a pivotal year for AI-defined hardware and the mass production of robots [5] - Major hardware manufacturers like Apple and Xiaomi are enhancing AI capabilities, while global tech giants are entering hardware sectors, revealing investment opportunities across the robotics supply chain [5] Group 6: Specific Investment Targets - Sunny Optical Technology: A global leader in mobile and automotive optics, with growth driven by increased project shares and rapid growth in automotive lenses/modules [6] - Lenovo Group: Holds the largest share in AIPC, with valuation catalysts pending from server business profitability and AIPC demand [6] - AAC Technologies: A platform company in acoustics, optics, and motors, with growth linked to A customer strategies and AI edge [7] - BYD Electronics: A leader in precision manufacturing, with growth contingent on Apple business performance and new automotive products [7] - Xiaomi Group: The "people-car-home + AI" strategy opens long-term growth potential, though short-term challenges exist [7]

消息面上，摩根大通信用分析师Erica Spear预计，进入新的一年，甲骨文债券仍将持续承压。上周，甲 骨文股价录得近11个月来最大跌幅，衡量其信用风险的指标也升至16年来新高。公司最新季度财报显示 云业务收入不及分析师预期，同时还将年度资本开支目标上调150亿美元，并将未来租赁承诺规模扩大 至原来的两倍以上，这一系列举动加剧了投资者对潜在AI泡沫的担忧。(格隆汇) 甲骨文(ORCL.US)盘前续跌1.3%，报182.5美元。截至周一收盘，该股已自9月创下的历史高位345.121美 元跌去46%。 ...

Group 1 - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is at a rebound stage, with attractive long-term positioning [1] - There is a cautious approach from southbound funds, with a consensus for a strong policy opening in Q1 next year, particularly favoring non-ferrous metals and technology sectors [1][2] - The report emphasizes the need for controlling positions in the Hong Kong market and preparing for a rebound by selecting technology growth stocks [1] Group 2 - In the US market, the Nasdaq fell by 1.6%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones experienced declines of 0.6% and an increase of 1.0%, respectively [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to increased internal divisions regarding future rate cuts, with some officials expressing caution [2][3] - Employment pressures are evident, with initial jobless claims rising to 236,000, indicating potential economic uncertainty [3] Group 3 - Concerns regarding the technology sector have intensified, particularly following disappointing earnings reports from Oracle and Broadcom, which have raised doubts about the AI market's growth potential [5] - The report indicates that the US stock market is expected to remain on an upward trajectory driven by economic fundamentals and corporate earnings resilience [6] - The report highlights that the current rapid rise in US stocks is primarily due to sustained profit growth rather than speculative behavior [6] Group 4 - The report notes that global stock ETF inflows have slowed, with a net inflow of $24.644 billion and marginal outflows of $9.149 billion [8] - Emerging markets saw a 0.3% increase, while developed markets experienced a 0.2% decline [8] - The report identifies that the materials, utilities, and technology sectors saw the highest net inflows, while financials and consumer staples faced the most significant outflows [8]

查看最新行情 甲骨文在上周末提交的证券文件中披露，截至11月的三个月内，公司签订了价值约1500亿美元的数据中 心租赁承诺。这一举措表明，甲骨文正为承接OpenAI等客户与其达成的云业务合作做准备。 责任编辑：刘明亮 甲骨文在上周末提交的证券文件中披露，截至11月的三个月内，公司签订了价值约1500亿美元的数据中 心租赁承诺。这一举措表明，甲骨文正为承接OpenAI等客户与其达成的云业务合作做准备。 文件显示，截至11月30日，甲骨文拥有2480亿美元的租赁承诺，"基本全部与数据中心及云算力相关安 排有关"。这些租赁承诺将在即日起至2028财年期间生效，且尚未计入资产负债表。根据甲骨文今年夏 季提交的文件，截至8月31日，该公司新增租赁承诺为998亿美元；而截至5月，这一数字仅为434亿美 元。 同样截至11月30日，甲骨文的客户承诺总额达5230亿美元，期限跨度超过五年。甲骨文在证券文件中表 示，其中10%的承诺预计将在未来12个月内确认，另有65%将在未来五年内确认。 责任编辑：刘明亮 文件显示，截至11月30日，甲骨文拥有2480亿美元的租赁承诺，"基本全部与数据中心及云算力相关安 排有关"。这些租赁承 ...

【报告导读】金融市场预期的波动不会改变实体经济运行的趋势。尽管AI股票波动在放大、降息预期存在反复，但未来投资和降息方向都相对更为明 确，经济的齿轮不会因为预期变化而停滞，与现实相关的资产将继续前行。未来基本面受上述两个因素影响带来的潜在变化更值得投资者关注和下注，我 们的主线推荐维持不变。 本周中央经济工作会议定调明年的经济目标，我们认为走出通缩的路径逐步明晰：（1）扩大内需依旧是首位，但实现路径可能不在于加大财政补贴和政 府投资，而是中长期提升居民收入的目标（从2024年的中低收入人群+养老金→更广泛群体的城乡居民增收计划）以及激活民间资本。（2）继续强调中 游制造的反内卷，这为企业盈利的修复打下基础。以光伏的收储计划为例，未来可能会逐步落地。多晶硅的价格已稳定在5.5万元/吨附近。从通胀数据来 看，走出通缩的政策思路已经有所体现：11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，为2023年3月以来最高。同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉动，但除此以外服务 性消费价格指数也在上涨：飞机票、家政服务和在外餐饮价格分别上涨7.0%、2.4%和1.2%。PPI虽然同比下降2.2%，但主要受上年同期对比基数走高影 响，环比上看上 ...