Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 258.92 RMB based on a PE of 230 for 2026 [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as the leading domestic manufacturer of harmonic reducers, with a market share expected to reach 12% globally by 2024, making it the second largest worldwide and the largest in China [1][12]. - The recovery of the company's fundamentals and the domestic substitution trend are expected to drive growth in its core business, particularly in the harmonic reducer sector, which is seeing increased demand from the industrial robot market [1][2]. - The humanoid robot market is anticipated to experience rapid growth, with the company poised to benefit significantly due to its strong position in the harmonic reducer segment [2][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Leading Harmonic Reducer Leader, Core Business Rapid Recovery - The company, established in 2011, specializes in precision transmission devices, including harmonic reducers, and has broken the monopoly of international brands in the domestic market [12]. - The company has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.9% in revenue from 2017 to 2024, with a notable recovery expected in 2025 due to the resurgence of demand in the industrial robot sector [14][18]. 2. Humanoid Robots Expected to Open Strong Demand for Harmonic Reducers - The harmonic reducer is a core component for robots, with significant demand expected as humanoid robots gain traction in the market [29][58]. - The report highlights that the integration of AI technology and investments from major tech companies like Tesla are likely to accelerate the development of humanoid robots, creating substantial opportunities for the company [2][58]. 3. Technology and Cost Leadership, Equipment Advantages to Expand New Business - The company possesses strong technological capabilities and equipment advantages, which allow it to expand into new areas such as screw and joint assemblies [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the company's comprehensive equipment reserves and its ability to leverage these for enhanced production capabilities and product matrix expansion [2][3]. 4. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.4 billion RMB in 2025, increasing to 3.0 billion RMB by 2027, with corresponding PE ratios decreasing from 249 to 136 [3][6]. - Given the company's leading position in the domestic harmonic reducer market and clear growth trajectory, the report assigns a target PE of 230 for 2026 [3].

Group 1 - The stock of Greentec Harmonic fell by 5.15% on January 7, closing at 189.51 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.473 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 4.15%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 34.743 billion CNY [1] - Greentec Harmonic Transmission Technology Co., Ltd. is located in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, and was established on January 13, 2011. The company went public on August 28, 2020, and specializes in the research, design, production, and sales of precision transmission devices [1] - The main revenue composition of Greentec includes harmonic reducers and metal components at 78.33%, mechatronic products at 16.56%, intelligent automation equipment at 3.24%, and others at 1.87% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten holdings of funds, one fund under ICBC Credit Suisse holds Greentec Harmonic as a major investment. The ICBC Specialized and Innovative Mixed A Fund (015135) held 33,900 shares in the third quarter, accounting for 4.18% of the fund's net value, making it the largest holding [2] - The estimated floating loss for the ICBC Specialized and Innovative Mixed A Fund today is approximately 348,900 CNY [2] - The ICBC Specialized and Innovative Mixed A Fund was established on August 1, 2022, with a current scale of 121 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 3.03%, ranking 4142 out of 8823 in its category, while the one-year return is 48.14%, ranking 2236 out of 8083 [2]

Group 1 - The stock of Greentech Harmonic rose by 5.19%, reaching 180.70 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 706 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.18%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 33.128 billion CNY [1] - Greentech Harmonic, established on January 13, 2011, and listed on August 28, 2020, is a high-tech enterprise based in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, specializing in the research, design, production, and sales of precision transmission devices [1] - The company's main business revenue composition includes harmonic reducers and metal components at 78.33%, mechatronic products at 16.56%, intelligent automation equipment at 3.24%, and others at 1.87% [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Greentech Harmonic, Penghua Fund's carbon neutrality theme mixed fund A (016530) reduced its holdings by 758,600 shares, now holding 1.8983 million shares, which accounts for 1.12% of the circulating shares [2] - The Penghua carbon neutrality theme mixed fund A, established on May 5, 2023, has a latest scale of 2.08 billion CNY, with a year-to-date return of 106.53%, ranking 37 out of 8244 in its category; over the past year, it achieved a return of 191%, ranking 18 out of 8080 [2]