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海外市场周报:变数纷繁,景气为先-20250728
Tebon Securities· 2025-07-28 12:29
Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed results last week, with major US indices rising collectively, while the German DAX index experienced a slight pullback[3] - The UK FTSE 100 and French CAC40 indices increased, while the Taiwan Weighted Index and India's SENSEX30 saw declines[3] Economic Negotiations - Key economic negotiations between China, the US, and Europe are set to progress next week, with significant meetings scheduled between leaders[3] - Trump indicated a 50% chance of a US-EU agreement, while the US expressed optimism regarding US-China talks[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting is low, but pressure is mounting on the Fed from Trump, who highlighted a $3.1 billion budget overrun on Fed renovations[3] - The FOMC's outlook on future rate cuts is expected to change significantly, influenced by recent economic data and ongoing trade negotiations[3] Investment Strategy - Increased market volatility is anticipated, with a focus on sectors showing high growth potential, such as nuclear power and AI[3] - The upcoming FOMC meeting and corporate earnings reports are likely to contribute to market fluctuations, particularly in the tech and consumer sectors[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[3]