Group 1: AI Impact on Employment - AI adoption in the U.S. has increased from 3.7% to 10% in two years, with significant impacts on high-exposure industries and young workers[1] - The number of layoffs in October 2025 reached 153,000, a 175% increase year-on-year, with 21.7% of layoffs occurring in the tech sector[1] - Despite concerns, AI is not the primary cause of the employment downturn; the correlation between AI adoption and employment growth is weak (R²=0.09)[2] Group 2: Employment Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market has experienced a "low recruitment, low layoffs" state, with non-farm employment numbers showing a significant decline since early 2025[3] - Illegal immigration net inflow decreased by 1.6 to 2 million in 2025, explaining about 50% of the employment slowdown[3] - Government layoffs and tariff impacts contributed to 37% of the employment decline, while the influence of AI on white-collar jobs was only 7.6%[3] Group 3: Future Outlook - In 2026, the labor supply may continue to contract while demand stabilizes, maintaining a low equilibrium in employment levels[4] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise slowly, with a risk of triggering the "Sam Rule" at around 4.7%[4] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing monetary policy amid a "K-shaped" economic recovery, where labor shortages could enhance labor share while surpluses may lead to economic divergence[4]