1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Macroscopically, the "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the space for interest - rate cuts, suppressing the upside potential of copper prices. The short - term focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will influence the Fed's decision in September. - Fundamentally, as it approaches the traditional peak season, the spot premium is strong, and domestic social inventories are starting to decline. With "tight mine supply + resilient demand," there is support for prices. In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading. The price is expected to range between 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, short - term supply disruptions such as the crackdown on bauxite theft in Shanxi and the demonstration in Guinea have raised concerns, but mid - term production capacity is expected to increase, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. - For electrolytic aluminum, although there is some support from domestic consumption - stimulating policies and expectations of Fed rate cuts, the supply is stable with a slight increase, and demand is still in the off - season. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, with a focus on the 21,000 yuan/ton resistance level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The current market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, as it enters the transition period from the off - season to the peak season in mid - August, demand is expected to improve. If the import price ratio remains the same, the supply of imported aluminum alloy ingots and scrap will be limited. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The upstream overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production resumption, but the production growth rate in May globally and in July domestically fell short of expectations. The smelter's production enthusiasm is high, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. Demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to range between 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. Tin - Supply of tin ore remains tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. Demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season. If supply recovers smoothly, short - selling opportunities may arise; otherwise, the price will remain high and volatile [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the US inflation pressure has eased, and the market expects more aggressive easing policies. Industrially, the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose, and the price of ferronickel is rising, but there is still an oversupply pressure. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the downstream of the new energy sector has a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak, with low procurement enthusiasm from downstream enterprises. Although the export pressure has been alleviated, the terminal demand is still weak. The price of ferronickel is rising, and the supply of stainless steel is expected to increase in August. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply is expected to contract in the short term, while demand is entering the peak season and is showing a positive trend. Although the actual demand has not significantly increased due to inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the overall market atmosphere is strong. The price of the main contract is expected to range between 85,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various types of copper decreased slightly, with the SMM 1 electrolytic copper at 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 3.59% to 1,020 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47%, and imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74%. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventories decreased by 10.01% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,590 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The import loss decreased by 113.2 yuan/ton to 1,289 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11%. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.41% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 30 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31%. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 2.03% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The import loss decreased by 62.92 yuan/ton to 1,728 yuan/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 35 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03%. The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions in China increased by 13.59% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price was 266,200 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 41.27% to 89.00 dollars/ton. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 40 to - 230. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, tin ore imports decreased by 11.44% to 11,911 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 6.94% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price remained unchanged at 121,650 yuan/ton. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 6.82% to 2,350 yuan/ton. - **Supply and Inventory**: In July, China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while imports increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 1.72% [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 13,100 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The 2510 - 2511 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan decreased by 1.00% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 85,700 yuan/ton, up 1.30%. The 2509 - 2511 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. - **Fundamental Data**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41%, and demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62%. The total inventory decreased by 2.01% [15].

来源：秦朔朋友圈 原创：悟00000空 秦朔朋友圈 特朗普解雇劳工统计局局长 2025年4月2日，美国总统特朗普宣布对所有贸易伙伴国实施"对等关税"，全球震动。经济学家们纷纷预测，这个政策叠加驱逐移民等政策，将导致美国物 价上涨，失业增加，严重的将导致美国经济衰退。 然而，随后五月、六月，美国劳工部统计局（BLS）的数据显示，非农就业新增分别为14.4万人和14.7万人，远高于预期。物价在某些行业有所上涨，但 整体通货膨胀率仍保持在政策目标范围之内。 总之，经济形势一片大好。特朗普的追随者们把预测经济将衰退的经济学家们骂得体无完肤。这些经济学家也开始怀疑经济学逻辑基础是否还成立。 特朗普说，当他得到数据下修的消息时，他就在琢磨这数据到底是谁做的。当他意识到劳工统计局局长是拜登任命的时，心里就明白了一切。当天，他就 把这个局长给解雇了。 有的经济学家提供了一系列因素试图解释这种让人难以置信的现象—— 一是特朗普关税政策并没有完全落实，这减轻了对经济的负面影响； 二是企业赶在关税生效前抢库存，消费者赶在物价上涨前购物，这虚高了经济增长； 三是物价传导机制的运作需要一定时间，这使得通胀通常在政策冲击后的两三个月才会 ...

Labor Market Conditions - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakening, with both labor supply and demand declining, making it difficult for the unemployment rate to decrease[2] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals has fallen below the levels seen at the end of 2019, indicating a tightening labor market[2] - Since early 2025, the U.S. economy has been weakening, and the impact of tariffs on the labor market is a concern for the second half of the year[2] Unemployment Rate Projections - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to approximately 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, with a potential increase of 0.3-0.7 percentage points if GDP declines by 1% due to tariffs[4] - If the unemployment rate reaches 4.6%, it may trigger the "Sahm Rule" recession signal, which has historically indicated economic downturns[5] - The average monthly increase in the unemployment rate from January to May 2025 was about 0.06 percentage points, suggesting a continued upward trend[5] Tariff Impact on Employment - The tariffs are expected to have a significant negative impact on the U.S. job market, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows signs of contraction[4] - The current economic cycle is characterized by a slowdown, and the tariffs are expected to exacerbate existing challenges such as declining wage growth and rising precautionary savings among consumers[4] Immigration Policy Effects - The tightening of immigration policies under the Trump administration has led to a supply shock in the labor market, further exacerbating the decline in job growth[3] - The influx of illegal immigrants has historically helped to stabilize the labor market, but recent reductions in immigration may lead to increased unemployment rates[31] Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new highs, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 1.5% to 97.26, indicating market volatility amid economic uncertainty[6] - The actual yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has decreased to 2.0%, reflecting changing investor sentiment and expectations regarding future interest rates[6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising risks of unemployment in the U.S. labor market, driven by weakening labor supply and demand, and the potential impact of tariffs on employment [2][3][4] - The U.S. labor market is crucial for the economy, with consumer spending significantly contributing to GDP growth, primarily driven by labor income [2][6] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with estimates suggesting it could reach 4.5-4.6% by the end of the year, influenced by the new tariffs [3][89] Group 2 - The article discusses the employment impact of tariffs, indicating that a 1% decline in GDP could lead to a 0.3-0.7% increase in unemployment, based on Okun's Law [3][89] - The current tariff situation is expected to have a more significant impact on the manufacturing sector compared to previous tariff implementations, with a broader economic slowdown anticipated [65][77] - The article notes that the current economic environment is characterized by declining wage growth and increased precautionary savings among consumers, which could further exacerbate employment challenges [77][81] Group 3 - The "Sahm Rule" is mentioned as a potential indicator of recession, suggesting that if the unemployment rate rises to 4.6%, it could trigger recession signals [4][99] - Historical data shows that the Sahm Rule has a high success rate in predicting recessions, with the article indicating that the current labor market conditions could lead to its activation in the coming months [99][100] - The article emphasizes that the labor market is currently in a "loosened" state, with demand-side weaknesses likely driving the unemployment rate upward [100]

Group 1: Major Asset Movements - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new highs, with the S&P 500 rising by 3.4% and the Nasdaq by 4.2% during the week [1][2] - The US dollar index fell by 1.5% to 97.26, while the Chinese yuan appreciated against the dollar [1][32] - WTI crude oil prices dropped by 11.3% to $65.5 per barrel, and COMEX gold decreased by 2.8% to $3269.2 per ounce [1][46] Group 2: Trade Agreement Developments - The US and China signed a formal trade agreement on June 24, which includes the lifting of China's rare earth export ban and the US's cancellation of export bans on ethane, chip software, and jet engines [1][64] - The US has not disclosed further specific terms of the agreement, but it marks a significant step in trade relations [1][64] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Divergence in opinions among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts has increased, with some supporting a cut in July while others advocate for a wait-and-see approach [1][70] - The latest PCE inflation data showed a month-on-month change of -0.3%, indicating potential weakness in consumer spending [1][77] Group 4: Global Market Performance - Developed market indices saw broad increases, with the Nikkei 225 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 4.6% and 3.8%, respectively [2] - Emerging market indices also performed well, with the Cairo CASE30 index increasing by 9.1% [2] Group 5: Commodity Price Movements - Most commodities experienced mixed performance, with WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil both declining significantly, while some metals like LME copper and aluminum saw increases of 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively [46][53]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a bond专题 report focusing on the Fed's interest - rate cut rules under the Sahm Rule [1][14] - Chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, with research assistant Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: What is the Sahm Rule - In 2019, former Fed economist Claudia Sahm proposed the Sahm Rule, which states that when the three - month moving average of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to the lowest point in the previous 12 months, the economy is likely in recession [2] - The Sahm Rule is a recession indicator, not a prediction tool, and it reflects the current state of the economy [3] Group 3: Advantages and Accuracy of the Sahm Rule - The Sahm Rule is more timely than other economic recession measurement methods. Since 1953, its trigger time lags behind the NBER - declared recession start time by an average of 2.3 months, while the NBER's declaration has an average lag of 4 - 8 months [3] - The accuracy of the Sahm Rule is 100% for NBER - declared recessions. Since 1950, all 11 NBER - declared recessions were confirmed by the Sahm Rule, with a maximum lag of 4 months. However, there were two "false alarms" in 1959 and 2003 [3] Group 4: Failure Cases of the Sahm Rule - In November 1959, a 116 - day strike by steelworkers caused a short - term spike in manufacturing unemployment, leading to a false alarm. During the trigger period from November to December 1959, the ISM manufacturing PMI was above 50% [4] - In July 2003, the trigger was due to structural unemployment caused by rapid industrial - structure changes during high - speed economic growth. The GDP growth rate in Q2 2003 was 3.6%, and the ISM service PMI in July 2003 was 59.2% [4] Group 5: 2024 Sahm Signal Trigger Analysis - In April, June, and July 2024, the Sahm signal was triggered, with the three - month moving average of the U3 unemployment rate at 3.9%, 4.1%, and 4.2% respectively, exceeding the previous 12 - month low by 0.5pct, 0.5pct, and 0.6pct [5] - The unemployment rate was still not high. The average unemployment rate during the Sahm - Rule trigger period is 7%, and during the NBER - declared recession is 6%. In Q1 2024, GDP grew by 1.6% quarter - on - quarter, and in April 2024, the ISM manufacturing and service PMIs dropped below the boom - bust line, showing mild recession signs [6] Group 6: Relationship between the Sahm Rule and Fed's Interest - rate Cuts - The Fed's actual interest - rate cuts occurred before the start of recession intervals because economic slowdown was signaled by indicators like PMI before recession. The Fed also continued to cut rates during recessions [7] - In 2003, despite a false alarm of the Sahm signal, the Fed cut rates by 25BP one month before due to high unemployment and an unbalanced economic structure [7] - In 2024, the normal sequence of "rate hike→rate cut→recession" was broken, changing to "rate hike→recession→rate cut". The Fed cut rates 6 months after the first Sahm - signal warning, likely due to concerns about inflation [8] - The Fed's rate cuts in 2024 were likely influenced by the Sahm Rule. In September 2024, the Fed cut rates by 50BP when the CPI was still relatively high. The three rate cuts in 2024 occurred when the Sahm - signal value was between 0.43 - 0.47pct [9] Group 7: Outlook - Currently, the Sahm signal indicates that the US has temporarily exited the recession period. However, other indicators suggest economic slowdown risks, and there may be a possibility of re - entering a recession [10] - Future rate - cut predictions should focus on whether the Sahm - signal value rises above 0.4%. Given the current downward trend of inflation, the Fed may cut rates when the Sahm - signal value is relatively high, even before the 0.5% warning is triggered [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the slowdown in U.S. job growth in May due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, while stable wage growth may keep the economy on track and potentially delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding market expectations of 125,000 [4] - The healthcare sector contributed 62,000 new jobs, and the leisure and hospitality industry added 48,000, accounting for nearly 80% of the new positions [4] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, with 625,000 people leaving the labor force, indicating a lack of confidence in the job market [4][5] - Hourly wages increased by 0.4%, surpassing market predictions, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%, slightly above the Fed's sustainable inflation target of 3.7% [4] - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has slowed to 135,000 from 232,000 in January [4] Labor Market Concerns - There are signs of pressure from the trade war, with 7.24 million people reported as unemployed, the highest level since the U.S. emerged from the pandemic in 2021 [5] - The labor force participation rate dropped from 62.6% in April to 62.4%, primarily affecting the prime working-age population [5] - The employment-population ratio fell from 60.0% in April to 59.7%, indicating a decline in the economy's job creation capacity [5] - Experts suggest that the decline in labor participation may mask marginal deterioration in employment and the labor market [6] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Following the employment data release, President Trump pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, criticizing the current monetary policy as a "disaster" [7] - The Fed's current benchmark interest rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%, described as "moderately restrictive" [7] - There is ongoing debate on whether tariff-induced inflation is transitory or persistent, with some Fed officials believing it to be a one-time price level increase [7][8] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts by the Fed in September and December, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for June 17-18 [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the third consecutive pause in rate cuts since the initiation of the easing cycle in September last year [2][3] - The Fed emphasized rising risks of high unemployment and inflation, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [3][4] - The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook has increased due to tariff policies, which have led to concerns about inflation and economic slowdown [3][5] Group 2 - The first quarter GDP growth rate for the U.S. was reported at -0.3%, the lowest since Q2 2022, primarily affected by a significant increase in imports and a decrease in government spending [6][7] - The trade deficit reached a historical high of $162 billion in March, with imports rising by 5% to $342.7 billion, marking the fourth consecutive month of record imports [6][7] - Despite the economic slowdown, the labor market remains strong, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, surpassing expectations [8] Group 3 - The Fed is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with no immediate rate cuts anticipated before the expiration of the 90-day tariff suspension on July 8 [4][9] - The potential for a recession remains, but the labor market's resilience may keep the unemployment rate near neutral targets, focusing Fed policy on inflation [10] - Market attention is on the progress of trade negotiations, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [10][11] Group 4 - The uncertainty from tariff policies has led to increased volatility in the stock market, with major indices experiencing declines year-to-date [11] - The bond market has faced pressure due to concerns over rising inflation and fiscal policy uncertainties, although yields have recently shown signs of retreat [11][12] - Gold investment demand has surged amid global trade tensions and economic recession fears, with a long-term bullish outlook despite potential short-term adjustments [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 114,000, marking the lowest growth since December 2020, significantly below the expected 175,000 and down from the previous value of 206,000 [2][6] - The unemployment rate surged to 4.3%, exceeding expectations and the previous rate of 4.1%, triggering the Sam Rule which indicates a high probability of recession [2][3][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The increase in unemployment was primarily driven by a rise in temporary layoffs, with temporary job losses increasing by 249,000 to 1.1 million, while the number of permanent job losers remained relatively stable at 1.7 million [7][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market reacted negatively to the employment data, with expectations shifting towards a hard landing for the economy, contrasting previous assumptions of a soft landing [2][10] - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, experienced a decline greater than the broader market, indicating a sell-off in small-cap stocks due to their weaker risk and cyclical resilience [16][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The market is increasingly favoring "defensive" stocks, such as consumer staples and utilities, which are considered essential regardless of economic conditions, as investors seek safety amid economic uncertainty [15][16] - The potential for a recession has led to a shift in market sentiment, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates more aggressively than previously anticipated [19][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management indicated that the July employment data might reflect a one-time factor due to the impact of Hurricane Barry, which caused temporary layoffs in affected regions [9][10] - There is speculation that the unemployment rate could revert to 4.1% in August, as the July data may not be indicative of a long-term trend [10][12] Other Important Information - The Sam Rule, which suggests that a 0.5 percentage point increase in the three-month average unemployment rate compared to the previous year's low indicates a recession, has been triggered by the recent data [5][6] - The market is pricing in the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the near future, reflecting heightened economic concerns [19][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is the July employment data a sign of a recession? - The July employment data, while concerning, may not definitively indicate a recession, but it does increase the probability of one occurring [12] Question: What factors contributed to the rise in unemployment? - The rise in unemployment was largely due to temporary layoffs, influenced by external factors such as Hurricane Barry, which affected many businesses [9][10] Question: How is the market responding to the economic outlook? - The market is shifting towards defensive stocks and pricing in potential interest rate cuts as investors react to the increased likelihood of a recession [15][19]