美国联邦政府停摆，美联储陷入数据盲区 在通胀问题上，会议纪要反映出美联储内部正在形成两派观点，多数与会的美联储官员强调美国通胀前 景仍存在上行风险，指出关税影响仍有不确定性，通胀数据可能进一步偏离2%的目标，但也有美联储 官员强调需关注保护美国劳动力市场，对通胀的忧虑较少。 会议纪要还显示，少数与会的美联储官员对9月的降息持保留态度。他们表示，9月议息会议维持联邦基 金利率不变亦有其合理性，尽管美国劳动力市场的风险有所上升，但近期指标并未显示美国劳动力市场 状况出现急剧恶化。大多数与会的美联储官员认为年内可能再降息的条件是通胀持续下行且就业恶化加 剧。 尽管目前美联储内部对后续货币政策存在很多争论和争吵，但参与9月会议的与会者仍强调，在考虑下 一步行动时，美联储将继续权衡通胀与就业的双重风险。部分与会者指出，从多个衡量标准来看，目前 美联储的货币政策可能并不对美国经济具有很强的限制性，因此应对进一步降息采取谨慎态度。 10月9日凌晨，美联储公布9月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储官员强 烈倾向于降息，多数参加会议的与会者认为，在今年剩余的时间内进一步放松货币政策可能是合适的， 但美 ...

Investors are turning to so-called alternative data and other resources to get a grip on the U.S. labor market and economy during the government shutdown. ...

Group 1 - A weakening U.S. labor market poses risks for both the U.S. economy and markets [1] - The rate of new jobs created and the official unemployment rate are critical metrics but do not provide a complete picture of the labor market [1]

Group 1 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee emphasizes a cautious approach to interest rate cuts due to weakening economic growth and a soft labor market [1][3] - The recent decision to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% was supported, but future adjustments will depend on economic data [1][3] - Goolsbee describes the current economic environment as shrouded in "stagflation fog," indicating that any rate cuts should be gradual to avoid new economic volatility [3][4] Group 2 - Concerns exist regarding the potential for tariffs implemented since April to push prices higher, complicating policy decisions [4] - The neutral interest rate, defined as neither suppressing nor stimulating the economy, is estimated at around 3.1%, suggesting about a 1% room for further rate cuts [4] - The Fed may consider two more rate cuts this year, one in each of the remaining quarters [4] Group 3 - Labor market signals are critical indicators, with a current unemployment rate of 4.3% remaining historically low despite a slowdown in hiring [6] - The Chicago Fed has launched a new labor monitoring system to better capture employment market changes, integrating eleven types of high-frequency data [6] - If the economy continues to move towards inflation targets, further rate cuts may be possible, but each step will require solid economic progress [6]

Group 1 - Nvidia's significant investment in OpenAI has reignited the AI boom, leading to record highs in the three major U.S. stock indices and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, reflecting heightened market sentiment [1] - Risk assets and safe-haven assets have both reached historical highs, raising questions among investors about whether the market has achieved "perfect pricing" and if it has fully reflected all positive factors, potentially limiting future gains [3] - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that the market is far from "perfect pricing," indicating that concerns about future risks provide potential upside for the market [3][4] Group 2 - The report outlines five key reasons why the market is not "perfectly priced," starting with the historical high in gold prices, which signals market fear rather than extreme optimism [4] - Current U.S. inflation expectations remain elevated, with the 2-year inflation swap rate at 2.92%, indicating that inflation pressures are priced in, which limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates [7][5] - Ongoing tariff concerns persist, with potential for additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, reflecting unresolved risks in the market [8][9] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of concern, with non-farm payroll growth averaging only 64,000 over the past six months, the lowest in the current economic cycle, and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, the highest since late 2021 [9] - There is a widespread expectation among investors for further interest rate cuts by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which reflects concerns about potential economic slowdown rather than strong economic signals [10]

作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 美东时间9月17日，美联储将基准利率下调25bp至4.00-4.25%的目标区间，准备金利率（IORB）降至4.15%。 缩表进程保持不变，保持国债赎回上限$50亿和房屋抵押债券（MBS）赎回上限$350亿。 市场最初反应偏鸽，对年内降息的定价从42bp升至45bp，但这一影响很快消退。鲍威尔对过度鸽派倾向进行了 否定，收盘时市场交易由鸽转鹰。美国国债收益率上涨，美元小幅走强，美股三大指数基本横盘，黄金下跌， 境外美元流动性宽松。 总体而言，本次议息会议呈现三点特征：一是降息基调为预防式降息；二是美国未来强经济和弱就业并存；三 是美联储官员内部分歧加大。 预计美联储年内将再降息2次（50bp），建议继续持有美国中短债和黄金，美元 趋于震荡，美股延续上行。 | | | 市场预测 | 实际 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联邦基金利率上限 | 9月17日 | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.50% | | 联邦基金利率下限 | 9月17日 | 4.00% | 4.00% | 4.25% | | 储备金余额利率 | 9 月 18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revised employment data indicates that the U.S. labor market is no longer as robust as previously thought [1] Group 1 - The adjustments in employment figures suggest a weakening in the stability of the labor market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The US labor market has significantly weakened, with the overall non - farm employment revised down by 911,000 from April 2024 to March 2025, much higher than market expectations. The initial jobless claims in the week of September 6, 2025, also exceeded expectations. The inflation data shows that the US August PPI was significantly lower than expected, while the CPI was in line with or slightly higher than expectations. The market has increased the pricing of the Fed's interest rate cut. Silver prices will significantly benefit in the interest - rate cut cycle. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai Gold futures contract at 816 - 860 yuan/gram and the main Shanghai Silver futures contract at 9710 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Gold**: Shanghai Gold rose 0.39% to 834.00 yuan/gram, COMEX gold fell 0.25% to 3677.00 dollars/ounce. The London Gold rose 0.59% to 3651.10 dollars/ounce, and the Au(T + D) rose 0.51% to 830.34 yuan/gram. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.32% to 974.80 tons [2][4] - **Silver**: Shanghai Silver rose 1.22% to 10051.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX silver fell 0.47% to 42.63 dollars/ounce. The London Silver rose 2.88% to 42.26 dollars/ounce, and the Ag(T + D) rose 2.68% to 10034.00 yuan/kilogram. The SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 0.45% to 15069.60 tons [2][4] - **Other Markets**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.06%, the dollar index was 97.65. Stock market indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.59%, the S&P 500 down 0.05%, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.44%, etc [2][4] 3.2 Economic Data - **Employment Data**: From April 2024 to March 2025, the US private - sector non - farm employment was revised down by 880,000, and the government - sector employment was revised down by 31,000, with a total non - farm revision of 911,000, much higher than market expectations. The initial jobless claims in the week of September 6, 2025, were 263,000, higher than expected [2] - **Inflation Data**: The US August PPI was significantly lower than expected, with the year - on - year value at 2.6% (expected 3.3%, previous 3.3%), and the month - on - month value at - 0.1% (expected 0.3%, previous 0.7%). The core PPI also showed a decline. The August CPI was in line with or slightly higher than expectations, with the year - on - year value at 2.9% (previous 2.7%), and the month - on - month value at 0.4% (expected 0.3%, previous 0.2%) [2] 3.3 Market Expectations - The market expects a 93.38% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in the September 2025 meeting and a 6.62% probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. It also expects 25 - basis - point cuts in the October and December meetings [3] 3.4 Technical Data - **Gold Technical Data**: For COMEX gold on September 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 3680.70 dollars/ounce (up 0.20%), the trading volume was 147,600 lots (down 28.76%), the open interest was 509,600 lots (up 3.39%), and the inventory was 1210 tons (up 0.01%) [6] - **Silver Technical Data**: For COMEX silver on September 12, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 42.68 dollars/ounce (up 1.46%), the open interest was 156,700 lots (down 1.05%), and the inventory was 16405 tons (up 0.55%) [6] 3.5 Spread Data - **Gold Spread**: On September 12, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX gold spread was - 3.66 yuan/gram (- 15.97 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 3.55 yuan/gram (- 15.50 dollars/ounce) [64] - **Silver Spread**: On September 12, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 273.09 yuan/kilogram (1.19 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA silver spread was 377.78 yuan/kilogram (1.65 dollars/ounce) [64]

Group 1 - The overall inflation in the U.S. rose in August, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.3% [1] - Year-on-year, the CPI recorded a 2.9% increase, which is consistent with market expectations and represents a 0.2 percentage point acceleration from July [1][2] - The 0.4% month-on-month increase is the largest since February and is double the increase seen in July [2] Group 2 - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month and 3.2% year-on-year, while energy prices increased by 0.7% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, aligning with previous month’s increases and market expectations [2] Group 3 - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the CPI, rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the largest increase of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [3] - New car prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, while used car and truck prices rose by 1% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year [4] Group 4 - The CPI report indicates persistent inflation in the U.S., influenced by global tariffs and rising service costs, which may exert lasting pressure on overall inflation [4] - The number of initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, increasing by 27,000 from the previous week, which was above market expectations of 235,000 [4] - This rise in jobless claims, combined with a low non-farm payroll increase of only 22,000, suggests a weakening trend in the U.S. labor market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of immigration raids, arrests, and deportations on the U.S. labor force, indicating significant disruptions and challenges within various industries [1] Group 1: Labor Force Impact - Immigration enforcement actions are leading to noticeable cracks in the U.S. labor market, affecting the availability of workers in key sectors [1] - Industries that rely heavily on immigrant labor are experiencing increased difficulties in maintaining workforce stability due to these enforcement measures [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The disruptions in the labor force may result in increased operational costs for companies that depend on immigrant workers, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers [1] - The overall economic productivity could be negatively impacted as businesses struggle to fill positions and maintain output levels [1]