丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 就业走弱，但并非降息必要条件 ——9 月美国非农就业数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月美国劳动力市场数据表现分化：新增非农就业人数大幅高于预期，但失业率连续 三个月上升，时薪数据指向核心服务通胀压力尚且可控。总的来看，数据确认劳动力市场持续 走弱，但并未出现超预期恶化，就业端仍不足以构成美联储必须降息的理由。往前看，1）年内， 考虑到目前就业并未加速恶化，12 月暂停降息仍是大概率情形；2）2026 年，关税推升通胀但 幅度大概率有限，待关税影响逐渐明朗，美联储的重心仍会回到就业下行风险之上，届时经济 仍需宽货币呵护，美联储或再度降息 2-3 次至中性利率水平以应对经济下行风险。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 于博 敬成宇 [Table_Title 就业走弱，但并非降息必要条件 2] ——9 月美国非农就业数据点评 [Table ...

尽管美国总统特朗普长期施压美联储降息，但央行内部已出现深刻分歧：一派主张在12月会议继续降息 以支撑劳动力市场，另一派则担忧可能加剧通胀风险。政府停摆使美联储决策雪上加霜——常规经济报 告发布中断，劳工统计局周三更宣布因停摆期间数据收集工作停滞，将不再单独发布10月就业报告，部 分数据将合并至11月报告发布。 机构分析师表示，非农数据整体上带来了惊喜，此外，前两个月的数据被向下修正，但合计只减少了 3.3万人，所以这并没有给9月份的数据带来太大的影响。失业率意外攀升至4.4%，但请注意，劳动力参 与率也有所上升，因此这可能并不一定是坏消息。招聘活动由医疗保健、食品服务、饮酒场所和社会救 助行业推动的。尽管这些就业数据已经滞后，但仍足以引起市场关注。 "美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：以三个月移动平均值衡量，9月私营部门就业人数增幅从8月的周期低点 1.6万人升至5.7万人。以六个月平均值计算，9月私营部门就业人数小幅下降至5.8万人，创周期新低。 周五（11月21日）亚洲时段，美元小幅回落调整，今日美元指数最新报100.161，跌幅0.06%，美国9月 非农报告指出，美国劳动力市场意外反弹，这将使美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of hawkish statements from Fed officials and better - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a further interest rate cut by the Fed in December has weakened. However, the trend of a weakening US labor market remains unchanged, and further easing by the Fed is just a matter of time. - Currently, it is recommended to enter long silver positions on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of SHFE gold is 903 - 982 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of SHFE silver is 11534 - 12639 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 21, 2025, SHFE gold fell 0.66% to 933.90 yuan/gram, and SHFE silver fell 1.34% to 11967.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4076.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 50.36 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.1%, and the US dollar index was 100.23 [2]. - The September non - farm payroll employment change in the US was 119,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the revised previous value of - 22,000. But considering the previous revisions, the September employment data did not show an improvement in the US labor market. Except for healthcare and hospitality, the new employment in the service industry was poor, and employment in goods production relied on real estate. The main contributors to the new non - farm payrolls were healthcare (+59,000), hospitality (+47,000), government (+22,000), and construction (+19,000). The government employment sub - item will not support the combined non - farm data for October and November. The construction industry improved in September, but it is difficult to support overall employment in quantity like the service industry. Manufacturing employment decreased by 6,000, and all sub - items declined, continuing the weak performance in August. The number of people unemployed for more than 15 weeks reached 3.105 million, the highest since 2022. The new employment in the information manufacturing (IT industry) was 0, slightly better than the previous decline of 700 [2]. 3.2 Gold and Silver Data - **COMEX Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 4076.70 dollars/ounce, down 0.04% from the previous day. The trading volume was 26.69 million lots, up 16.83%. The open interest was 49.37 million lots, down 6.63%. The inventory was 1149 tons, down 0.09% [5]. - **LBMA Gold**: The closing price was 4090.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.88% [5]. - **SHFE Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 932.56 yuan/gram, down 0.47%. The trading volume was 54.02 million lots, up 10.99%. The open interest was 33.20 million lots, down 1.08%. The inventory was 90.43 tons, unchanged. The settled funds were 49.54 billion yuan, out - flowed 1.55% [5]. - **COMEX Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 50.36 dollars/ounce, down 1.39%. The open interest was 16.38 million lots, down 1.19%. The inventory was 14367 tons, down 0.13% [5]. - **LBMA Silver**: The closing price was 50.85 dollars/ounce, down 2.60% [5]. - **SHFE Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 12,050.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.81%. The trading volume was 258.09 million lots, up 32.77%. The open interest was 74.14 million lots, up 1.91%. The inventory was 535.09 tons, down 2.30%. The settled funds were 24.122 billion yuan, in - flowed 1.09% [5]. 3.3 Price Structure and Spread - **Gold**: In the COMEX gold near - far month structure, and the spreads between London gold and COMEX gold, SHFE gold and COMEX gold, and SGE gold and LBMA gold were analyzed. For example, on November 20, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for gold was - 0.95 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA spread was - 7.57 dollars/ounce [5][51]. - **Silver**: In the COMEX silver near - far month structure, and the spreads between London silver and COMEX silver, SHFE silver and COMEX silver, and SGE silver and LBMA silver were analyzed. On November 20, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX spread for silver was 2.28 dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA spread was 1.92 dollars/ounce [5][51].

当地时间11月20日 ，美国劳工统计局发布9月非农就业数据，数据显示 美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人 ，市场预估为增加5.2万人，前值 为增加2.2万人。除这一核心就业数据外，劳工统计局还指出，美国失业率小幅攀升至4.4%，创下2021年10月以来的最高水平。当月平均时薪 环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨3.8%，而此前对应的预期涨幅分别为0.3%和3.7%。 就业报告发布后，美国短期利率期货上涨。就业报告发布后，美国短期利率期货上涨。 英国金融时评美国9月非农报告指出，美国劳动力市场意外反弹，这将使美联储关于下月是否降息的决策更趋复杂。周四公布的9月新增非农 人口录得11.9万人，不仅高于机构调查经济学家预测的5万人，也显著高于8月修正后的2.2万人。失业率则从8月的4.3%升至4.4%，创2021年 以来新高。这份报告是自美国联邦政府创纪录停摆导致官方数据中断发布以来，美国劳工统计局发布的首个经济健康指标。意外向好的数据 将强化联邦公开市场委员会鹰派成员的立场，他们始终警告美联储不宜过快降息。尽管美国总统特朗普长期施压美联储降息，但央行内部已 出现深刻分歧：一派主张在12月会议继续降息以支撑劳动力市场， ...

结果显示，美国9月非农就业人口增长11.9万人，是预期5.1万的两倍多，但与此同时，8月份新增就业人 数从增长2.2万人下修2.6万，至减少0.4万人，7月和8月非农就业人数合计下修3.3万人。 美国劳动力市场在政府关门前出现企稳迹象。 当地时间周四，美国劳工统计局公布最新非农数据。 美国9月失业率4.4%，高于预期和前值4.3%，为2021年10月以来最高。 这份非农数据原定于10月3日公布，是此次美国政府关门期间首份被推迟的重要数据。不过，由于劳工 统计局在10月1日政府关门开始前已经完成数据收集，这份报告也成为政府重新开放后最早发布的数据 之一。 美国9月平均每小时工资同比增长3.8%，预期为持平前月的3.7%。环比0.2%低于预期，涨幅较前月的 0.3%小幅收窄。 ...

新华财经北京11月20日电美国联邦储备委员会周三（11月19日）公布的10月货币政策会议纪要显示，美 联储官员就12月份是否进一步降息出现显著分歧。市场对降息的押注缩减，美国国债收益率普遍上涨1- 2个基点。 在10月货币政策会议上，美联储公开市场委员会以10票赞成、2票反对的结果通过降息25个基点的决 议。反对者中一名成员投票支持降息50个基点，一名成员投票支持维持利率不变。 据"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos，美联储官员10月会议上对下次会议是否应该降息的分歧加深，持"在 本年度剩余时间里保持目标区间不变可能是适当的"观点的与会者人数多于支持在12月进一步降息的人 数。"越来越多的政策制定者（可能形成微弱多数）对12月降息感到不安。"Nick Timiraos表示，"12月 份的投票结果看来会非常胶着。" 截至19日尾盘，10年期美债收益率涨1.55个基点，报4.13%。2年期美债收益率涨1.48个基点，报 3.59%。CME"美联储观察"显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率由前一日的接近五成，下降至略超三 成。 美联储在10月货币政策会议结束后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3. ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term trend of precious metals such as gold and silver may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures fell 0.17% to $4067.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.34% to $50.54 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.32% at 929.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.51% to 11949 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - From the four - week period ending November 1st, US companies laid off an average of 2500 workers per week, indicating an improvement in the US labor market compared to the previous week's average reduction of 11250 people [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 48.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 51.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 49.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 31.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 18.4% [1] Market Logic - The so - called "inflation hawks" of the Fed have made intensive statements recently, making the decision on whether to conduct the third rate cut this year in December uncertain. The data shows that the probability of a rate cut in December is less than 50%. On November 18, the US dollar index rose slightly. Affected by the change in the Fed's rate - cut expectations, COMEX gold and silver both experienced a bottom - hunting rebound, and may be volatile in the short term [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term trend may be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials have expressed caution regarding the rising expectations for interest rate cuts, indicating that the current interest rate levels are closer to neutral rather than overly tight, suggesting limited room for significant rate cuts in the near future [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that after two rate cuts this year, the policy rate is now closer to neutral, with inflation around 3% still above the 2% target, necessitating continued efforts to combat high inflation while supporting the labor market [4]. - Other Fed officials echoed similar sentiments, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizing the need to maintain restrictive rates to apply downward pressure on inflation, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noting that approximately 3% inflation remains high [4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly mentioned that after two rate cuts this year, the balance between the goals of full employment and price stability has returned to a more balanced state, but service sector inflation has not shown sustained decline, warranting a more restrained market expectation for further easing [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following the cautious remarks from Fed officials, futures market pricing adjusted, with traders' bets on a December rate cut dropping from over 60% to around 50%, indicating a cooling confidence in the prospect of a rate cut [2]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with ADP reporting a private sector job increase of only 42,000 in October, while Challenger reported a significant rise in announced layoffs to 153,000, the highest for October since 2003 [6]. - Consumer sentiment is also weakening, with the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer confidence index falling to 50.3, the lowest since 2022, reflecting deteriorating expectations regarding job and income prospects [6]. Group 3: Challenges Faced by the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is navigating a complex situation with incomplete data due to prolonged government shutdowns, relying more on private and survey data to assess economic conditions [7][8]. - Musalem acknowledged the importance of restoring credible and sustainably updated official data, but noted that the Fed can still form reasonable judgments about economic conditions through financial market rates and other indicators [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US private - sector employment data is cooling, with the ADP small - non - farm employment in October decreasing by 45,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The small - business confidence index dropped to a six - month low. There is uncertainty in economic assessment due to potential missing economic data. In the US, the stock market is divided, the 10Y Treasury yield fell to 4.06%, the US dollar index weakened to 99.5, gold prices rose, copper prices rose, and oil prices rose by over 1% [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market opened higher and closed lower, with the trading volume of the two markets falling to 2 trillion. The micro - cap and dividend styles are still dominant over the technology style. In the short term, there may be new highs, but there is a risk of subsequent adjustments. In the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market is oscillating, waiting for the release of October financial and economic data. The central bank emphasizes strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [3]. - For precious metals, the optimistic expectation of interest rate cuts boosted gold and silver prices. The US Senate's bill to end the government shutdown and the expected weak economic data may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates in December. The demand for gold is expected to be strong this year and next, and the price may reach $4,700 per ounce [4]. - For copper, the market is cautious. The weak US labor market requires continuous interest rate cuts. The global mine supply is tight, and domestic social inventories are decreasing marginally. Copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7]. - For aluminum, the macro - narrative is positive. The end of the US government shutdown, the resumption of economic data, and the dovish shift in the Fed's stance are positive. The supply and demand are relatively stable, and aluminum prices will continue to be strong and volatile [8]. - For alumina, the supply pressure persists, and the price remains weak. The production capacity is high, but the market expects potential production cuts in winter, so the price is oscillating at a low level [9][10]. - For zinc, the market is worried about the deterioration of the US labor market. The LME has low inventories and a strong structure, which supports zinc prices. However, weak domestic consumption limits the upside space, and zinc prices will oscillate [12]. - For lead, the LME is strong, driving up the price of Shanghai lead. The supply shortage in the domestic market has been alleviated, and Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short term but may face a pull - back risk [13][14]. - For tin, the weak US employment and the slow recovery of Indonesian tin exports support tin prices. However, the volatile macro - sentiment and high raw material prices may lead to a pull - back in tin prices [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply is contracting marginally, and the demand is weakening. The price will oscillate in the short term [16][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the current fundamentals are strong, but there are risks of increased imports and weakening demand in the future. The price will fluctuate widely [18][19]. - For nickel, the weak US labor market boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, which is positive for nickel prices. The high cost of nickel ore limits the downside space, but the high inventory weakens the fundamentals [20]. - For soda ash and glass, there are maintenance plans for soda ash production lines, and the glass production line's daily melting volume is weakening. Both lack demand - driven price increases and may oscillate at a low level [21][22]. - For steel products, the supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [23][24]. - For iron ore, port inventories are increasing, and the price will oscillate weakly [25]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, the South American production is expected to be good. The market is waiting for the USDA report, and the price will oscillate and adjust [26][27]. - For palm oil, the weak US employment data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The supply of rapeseed oil is tightening, and the price of vegetable oil has rebounded, driving up the prices of other oils. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [28][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - The trading data of various metal contracts on November 11, including closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented. For example, SHFE copper closed at 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, with a trading volume of 156,444 lots and an open interest of 553,109 lots [30]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On November 11, SHFE copper's main contract price was 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day. LME copper's price was 10,840 US dollars/ton, down 34.5 US dollars. SHFE copper's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 42,964 lots, and LME copper's inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons [32]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel's main contract price was 119,380 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. LME nickel's price was 15,025 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. SHFE nickel's warehouse receipts decreased by 241 lots to 32,292 lots, and LME nickel's inventory decreased by 96 tons to 253,308 tons [34]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc's main contract price was 22,675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. LME zinc's price was 3,069 US dollars/ton, down 16.5 US dollars. SHFE zinc's warehouse receipts increased by 649 lots to 70,518 lots, and LME zinc's inventory increased by 400 tons to 35,300 tons [34]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead's main contract price was 17,440 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan. LME lead's price was 2,067 US dollars/ton, up 10.5 US dollars. SHFE lead's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,981 lots, and LME lead's inventory increased by 24,525 tons to 226,725 tons [34]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum's continuous third - month contract price was 21,670 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan. LME aluminum's price was 2,879.5 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar. SHFE aluminum's warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 64,142 lots, and LME aluminum's inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 545,225 tons [34]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina's main contract price was 2,816 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan. The national average spot price of alumina was 2,869 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [34]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin's main contract price was 288,180 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan. LME tin's price was 36,695 US dollars/ton, up 515 US dollars. SHFE tin's warehouse receipts decreased by 112 lots to 5,582 lots, and LME tin's inventory decreased by 20 tons to 3,015 tons [36]. - **Precious Metals**: SHFE gold remained unchanged at 948.88 yuan/gram, and COMEX gold remained unchanged at 4,116.30 US dollars/ounce. SHFE silver remained unchanged at 11,880 yuan/kg, and COMEX silver remained unchanged at 50.744 US dollars/ounce [36]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: SHFE rebar's main contract price was 3,025 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The main contract price of iron ore futures was 763 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China increased by 380.41 million tons to 15,819.49 million tons [36][38]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The main contract price of coke futures was 1,685 yuan/ton, down 58.5 yuan. The main contract price of coking coal futures was 1,213 yuan/ton, down 52.5 yuan [38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract price of lithium carbonate futures was 8.46 yuan/ton, up 0.01 yuan. The spot price of electric - grade lithium carbonate was 8.2 yuan/ton, up 0.10 yuan [38]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price of industrial silicon futures was 9,180 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The average price of East China's 553 oxygen - containing silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [38]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybean's main contract price was 1,126.75 US cents/bushel, down 0.75 US cents. The main contract price of soybean meal futures was 3,054 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The main contract price of rapeseed meal futures was 2,500 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. government shutdown has affected the release of non - farm payroll data, and the private sector's weekly job losses indicate pressure on the U.S. labor market. The passage of the temporary appropriation bill in the Senate is likely to resolve the government shutdown issue, and the release of funds from the Treasury cash account will support market liquidity, which in turn will support gold and silver prices. Given that the Fed's current easing cycle is in its early stage and the market prices in a 67.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December FOMC meeting, it is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of SHFE gold is 927 - 968 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of SHFE silver is 11575 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - SHFE gold dropped 0.01% to 944.18 yuan/gram, SHFE silver rose 0.74% to 11921.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was at 4133.20 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was at 51.08 dollars/ounce. The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.13%, and the U.S. dollar index was 99.46 [2] - ADP's estimate showed that private - sector weekly job losses were 11,200 in the month ending on the 25th of last month, significantly lower than the estimated 42,000 job increases in October [2] Key Data of Gold and Silver - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract rose 0.24% to 4133.20 dollars/ounce, trading volume dropped 1.23% to 23.96 million lots, and the CFTC - reported open interest rose 2.43% to 52.88 million lots. The inventory decreased 0.41% to 1169 tons [5] - LBMA gold: The closing price rose 2.41% to 4090.25 dollars/ounce [5] - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract rose 1.38% to 948.88 yuan/gram, trading volume dropped 5.06% to 45.73 million lots, and open interest rose 1.71% to 35.57 million lots. The inventory remained unchanged at 89.62 tons, and the settled funds increased 3.11% to 53.996 billion yuan [5] - AuT + D: The closing price rose 1.44% to 946.50 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 23.13% to 63.05 tons, and open interest dropped 0.35% to 248.98 tons [5] - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract rose 1.33% to 51.08 dollars/ounce, and the CFTC - reported open interest rose 1.75% to 16.58 million lots. The inventory decreased 0.11% to 14885 tons [5] - LBMA silver: The closing price rose 2.76% to 50.04 dollars/ounce [5] - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract rose 1.37% to 11,880.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume dropped 26.87% to 137.01 million lots, and open interest rose 1.76% to 72.53 million lots. The inventory decreased 2.97% to 591.88 tons, and the settled funds increased 3.15% to 23.265 billion yuan [5] - AgT + D: The closing price rose 1.19% to 11,865.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 1.74% to 725.11 tons, and open interest rose 0.15% to 4243.002 tons [5] Strategy and Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 67.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the December FOMC meeting and a 32.6% probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of SHFE gold is 927 - 968 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of SHFE silver is 11575 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [3] Price Difference Data - Gold: On November 11, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 3.00 yuan/gram or 13.12 dollars/ounce. The SGE - LBMA price difference was 4.16 yuan/gram or 18.18 dollars/ounce [54][59] - Silver: On November 11, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 224.16 yuan/kilogram or 0.98 dollars/ounce. The SGE - LBMA price difference for Ag(T + D) was 137.33 yuan/kilogram or 0.60 dollars/ounce [54]