逆变器及储能
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 中金 | 全球逆变器PCS跟踪1:波兰储能实现突破
 中金点睛· 2025-10-27 23:40
 Core Viewpoint - The Polish solar and energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, with sustainable installation trends, particularly in centralized and commercial energy storage systems, indicating significant development potential. The demand for inverters and energy storage PCS in Poland reflects broader European market trends, with Chinese inverter manufacturers holding a substantial market share, warranting continued attention [2][3][4].   Demand Side: Multi-Factor Support for Inverter and Energy Storage PCS Demand - The demand for inverters and energy storage PCS in Poland is driven by domestic installation needs and distribution demands from neighboring countries. Domestic installation is influenced by power supply structure adjustments, increased arbitrage profits, concerns over continuous electricity supply, and government subsidies. The distribution demand is primarily driven by price differentials [6][7].   Domestic Installation Demand is Strengthening - Poland's reliance on coal for electricity generation (56% of total) has led to increased acceptance of solar power as a stable energy solution, especially after the ban on Russian coal imports in April 2022. The country saw record installation levels in 2022-2023, with new installations reaching 4.5GW and 4.8GW. By the end of 2024, cumulative installations are expected to exceed 21GW, with projections for 2025 indicating new installations could reach 5GW, a 25% increase [7][9].   Energy Storage Installation Expected to Double - According to BNEF data, Poland's energy storage installations are projected to reach 543MW/1013MWh in 2023, representing year-on-year growth of 102%/131%. Long-term forecasts suggest a 5-year CAGR of 27.85% for energy storage installations from 2026 to 2030 [9][10].   Policy Support as a Major Driver for 2025 Solar and Energy Storage Installations - Since 2021, Poland has implemented green energy policies to promote solar PV adoption, including household subsidies, tax incentives, and green bonds, attracting significant domestic and foreign investment. The "Mój Prąd" subsidy program has been crucial for household solar PV growth, with subsidy amounts increasing significantly in 2024 [19][20].   Supply Side: Chinese Inverter Brands Gaining Recognition in Poland - Chinese inverter manufacturers dominate the Polish market, with approximately 75% of the product categories offered by leading distributors being Chinese brands. The competitive advantage lies in product variety and cost-effectiveness, allowing for greater market penetration [23][24].   Installation Cost Declines Attracting More Potential Customers - The competitive landscape in the European inverter market has led to significant price reductions, with household solar storage systems seeing a price drop of about 21.42% and commercial systems by 9.15% from January to September. This trend is expected to attract more customers to invest in solar storage systems [30][31].   Profitability of Household and Commercial Storage Projects - The profitability of commercial storage projects is increasing, driven by the demand for stable power supply and attractive project returns. The combination of DAM arbitrage and aFRR services is creating a more reliable revenue model, attracting more investors [37][38].