Core Viewpoint - The Polish solar and energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, with sustainable installation trends, particularly in centralized and commercial energy storage systems, indicating significant development potential. The demand for inverters and energy storage PCS in Poland reflects broader European market trends, with Chinese inverter manufacturers holding a substantial market share, warranting continued attention [2][3][4]. Demand Side: Multi-Factor Support for Inverter and Energy Storage PCS Demand - The demand for inverters and energy storage PCS in Poland is driven by domestic installation needs and distribution demands from neighboring countries. Domestic installation is influenced by power supply structure adjustments, increased arbitrage profits, concerns over continuous electricity supply, and government subsidies. The distribution demand is primarily driven by price differentials [6][7]. Domestic Installation Demand is Strengthening - Poland's reliance on coal for electricity generation (56% of total) has led to increased acceptance of solar power as a stable energy solution, especially after the ban on Russian coal imports in April 2022. The country saw record installation levels in 2022-2023, with new installations reaching 4.5GW and 4.8GW. By the end of 2024, cumulative installations are expected to exceed 21GW, with projections for 2025 indicating new installations could reach 5GW, a 25% increase [7][9]. Energy Storage Installation Expected to Double - According to BNEF data, Poland's energy storage installations are projected to reach 543MW/1013MWh in 2023, representing year-on-year growth of 102%/131%. Long-term forecasts suggest a 5-year CAGR of 27.85% for energy storage installations from 2026 to 2030 [9][10]. Policy Support as a Major Driver for 2025 Solar and Energy Storage Installations - Since 2021, Poland has implemented green energy policies to promote solar PV adoption, including household subsidies, tax incentives, and green bonds, attracting significant domestic and foreign investment. The "Mój Prąd" subsidy program has been crucial for household solar PV growth, with subsidy amounts increasing significantly in 2024 [19][20]. Supply Side: Chinese Inverter Brands Gaining Recognition in Poland - Chinese inverter manufacturers dominate the Polish market, with approximately 75% of the product categories offered by leading distributors being Chinese brands. The competitive advantage lies in product variety and cost-effectiveness, allowing for greater market penetration [23][24]. Installation Cost Declines Attracting More Potential Customers - The competitive landscape in the European inverter market has led to significant price reductions, with household solar storage systems seeing a price drop of about 21.42% and commercial systems by 9.15% from January to September. This trend is expected to attract more customers to invest in solar storage systems [30][31]. Profitability of Household and Commercial Storage Projects - The profitability of commercial storage projects is increasing, driven by the demand for stable power supply and attractive project returns. The combination of DAM arbitrage and aFRR services is creating a more reliable revenue model, attracting more investors [37][38].

通润装备（002150） 2025 三季报点评：汇兑损失叠加海外项目延 迟致 Q3 业绩环降，全年有望持续高增 买入（维持） ◼ 汇率波动导致财务费用环增明显、合同负债大幅提升印证需求旺盛。 2025Q3 期间费用 1.82 亿元，同比-6.67%，环比+5.85%；费用率 20.62%， 同比-2.75pct，环比+1.56pct，其中财务费用达 0.11 亿元，财务费率达 1.23%，环比提升 2.65pct，主要系汇率波动叠加增加借款采购电芯所致； 经营性净现金流+0.06 亿元，同比-89.04%；2025Q3 末存货为 14.66 亿 元，同比+28.31%，2025Q3 末合同负债达 2.3 亿元，环比提升 1.7 亿元， 侧面印证公司需求旺盛。 ◼ 盈利预测与投资评级： 考虑传统工具业务出货同比略有下滑，我们略 微下调 2025 年盈利预测，基本维持 2026-2027 年盈利预测，我们预计 公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润为 2.8/3.9/5.2 亿元（前值为 3.0/3.9/5.2 亿 元），同增 29%/40%/32%，对应 PE 为 24/17/13 倍，给予 2026 年 25 ...

Core Insights - The Polish solar and energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, with sustainable installation trends, particularly in centralized and commercial energy storage systems, due to favorable returns and significant development potential [1] - China's inverter manufacturers have a strong market presence in Poland, suggesting continued investment interest in companies like Deye Co., Ltd. (605117.SH) [1] Group 1: Market Growth and Projections - Poland's new installations are expected to reach 5GW this year, a 25% year-on-year increase, with cumulative installations surpassing 26GW [1] - Energy storage installations are projected to be 543MW/1013MWh this year, reflecting a 102%/131% year-on-year growth [1] - The five-year CAGR for Poland's energy storage installations from 2026 to 2030 is anticipated to be 27.85%, with average storage hours for commercial, residential, and centralized systems expected to double [1] Group 2: Project Returns and Profitability - Household solar storage projects (5KW+5KWh) have an IRR of approximately 15.71% over a 25-year lifecycle, with payback periods of 5-8 years without government subsidies [2] - Current subsidies reduce the payback period for household investors by about one year, enhancing project attractiveness [2] - In the commercial storage sector, Polish energy storage projects rank highly in profitability within the European market, with a 31% quarter-on-quarter revenue increase for 1MWh systems, reaching €41,985, and a 35% increase for 2MWh systems, reaching €55,319 [2] Group 3: Competitive Advantages of Chinese Manufacturers - Chinese inverter manufacturers hold a competitive edge in distribution coverage, product power range, and system compatibility [3] - Analysis shows that Chinese inverter brands account for approximately 75% of the inventory categories of major distributors, while storage PCS brands from China dominate with a 90% share [3] - The influence of Chinese storage PCS in the Polish market is notably stronger compared to inverters [3]

Company Update - The company has completed a share buyback, repurchasing 1.9072 million shares, which accounts for 0.21% of its total share capital, with a maximum price of 53.75 CNY/share, a minimum price of 49.9 CNY/share, and an average price of 52.44 CNY/share, utilizing approximately 100 million CNY in total funds (excluding transaction fees) [1] Commentary - The buyback reflects the company's confidence in future growth and emphasizes shareholder returns. The repurchased shares will be used for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives, which may help align the interests of the company and its employees [2] - Short-term energy storage inverter shipments are expected to increase quarter-on-quarter in Q2 and Q3, with steady growth in household storage and a surge in industrial storage demand. The company anticipates a 20%-30% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 shipments, with industrial storage shipments projected at 25,000 to 30,000 units. Q3 shipments are also expected to maintain a quarter-on-quarter growth trend, with some markets like Ukraine experiencing a decline in demand [2] - The average power rating for the company's industrial storage products is currently 30KW, and new products with 100KW and 125KW ratings have been successfully delivered. A complete industrial storage solution (e.g., 125KW inverter + 215KWh battery pack) is valued at approximately 260,000 CNY, and the company is optimistic about increasing the proportion of industrial storage inverter shipments, which currently stands at about 12% [2] Long-term Outlook - The company maintains a strong leadership position in the user-side energy storage sector, with a comprehensive product series and rapid iteration speed. Its low-voltage solutions for household storage are competitive in emerging markets and Europe. The inverter industry is brand and channel-driven, making it difficult for other manufacturers to gain market share through price competition [3] - Market demand is driven by the urgent need for electricity in emerging markets, and as the prices of components and batteries decrease, the return on investment for household and industrial storage is improving. In Europe, the adoption of dynamic pricing is expected to significantly boost industrial storage demand, which currently has a low penetration rate [3] - The company has achieved a 20% price reduction for its newly launched energy storage inverters compared to the previous generation, with household storage inverters maintaining a gross margin of over 40% and industrial storage inverters currently at a gross margin of 60%. The company expects to maintain a gross margin level above 50% in the long term [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains an outperform rating, slightly lowering its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 8% and 6% to 3.4 billion CNY and 4.5 billion CNY, respectively, due to fluctuating demand in markets like Ukraine and Latin America. The target price has been reduced by 27% to 80 CNY, corresponding to 21x and 16x P/E for 2025 and 2026, indicating a 49% upside potential from the current stock price, which corresponds to 14x and 11x P/E for 2025 and 2026 [4]