Core Viewpoint - The global tin prices are expected to remain strong due to reduced LME inventories, bullish investor sentiment, and tight supply in the concentrate market [2][3][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the recovery of supply from Myanmar, liquidity remains weak [2]. - The semiconductor industry's stable demand is anticipated to continue supporting tin prices amid ongoing supply issues [3]. - Sucden Financial forecasts tin prices to range between $32,000 and $35,000 per ton in Q3 [4]. - LME three-month tin prices reported at $33,256 per ton, down 9.5% from the three-month high of $35,100 per ton on July 23 [5]. - The average tin price in July was above $35,500 per ton [6]. Supply Chain Developments - Reports indicate that mining licenses have finally been issued in Myanmar's Wa State, leading to a decline in tin prices [7]. - The issuance of licenses follows a period of supply disruptions in major tin-exporting countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia, with expectations of stable exports from these regions [8]. - Myanmar is the third-largest tin producer globally, with estimated reserves of 700,000 tons, accounting for 15% of the world's total reserves [8]. Inventory and Market Conditions - The U.S. refined tin imports have nearly doubled compared to the same period last year [10]. - Despite early signs of supply normalization, tin inventories remain unusually tight, with LME tin stocks significantly below long-term averages [10]. - Low visible inventories combined with increasing speculative interest may keep upward price risks high for the remainder of Q3 [11]. Future Price Projections - BMI has raised its average tin price forecast for 2025 from $32,000 to $33,000 per ton [3]. - Indonesia's tin exports have shown recovery, with refined tin exports in March reaching 580 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.8% [12]. - However, Indonesia's exports for January to May 2025 were 21,600 tons, a 110% increase year-on-year but a 10% decrease compared to the same period in 2023 [13]. - The easing of supply pressures and potential tariff headwinds are becoming key drivers for the tin market in the second half of the year [14]. Strategic Considerations - Sucden Financial notes that if physical supply tightens again or strategic demand grows faster than expected, significant price increases could occur [15]. - The global economic activity shows resilience supported by demand from the AI and electronics sectors, while low global tin inventories contribute to price volatility [16].