投顾发展 | 投顾晨报 冬藏蓄势等贝塔，防守亦有阿尔法 朝闻道 20251217 风格策略 年末注意防守，中期择时中盘蓝筹 行业策略 黄金：美元信用受损，黄金价格或受益上涨 主题策略 特钢：成本下行预期叠加进出口管理新规，行业迎高质量发展 相关 ETF：钢铁 ETF（515210） 风险提示 全球地缘政治的不确定性、宏观经济波动导致投资不及预期、原材料价格上涨拖累企业盈利、海外贸易摩 擦加剧、海外贸易摩擦加剧等风险 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 陈寒梅 执业证书编号：S0860525100003 chenhanmei@orientsec.com.cn 021-63326320 市场策略 调整压力加大，等待更好布局时机 | 接 受 震 荡 ， 拥 抱 中 盘 蓝 筹 ： 朝 闻 道 | 2025-12-14 | | --- | --- | | 20251215 | | | 以守代攻，择时而动：朝闻道 20251212 | 2025-12-11 | | 胜率提升，震荡向上：朝闻道 20251210 | 2025-12-09 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully validated its 80,000-ton electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide project with leading domestic clients in the photovoltaic and display sectors, achieving bulk supply [1] Group 1: Product Development - The electronic-grade hydrogen peroxide project has passed process validation with top domestic clients [1] - The company is conducting joint testing with leading clients in other sectors [1] Group 2: Customer Expansion - The company has leveraged its geographical advantage in the Yangtze River Delta to cover the new energy and electronics industries within a 200-500 kilometer radius [1] - Monthly shipment volumes are gradually increasing on a month-over-month basis [1] - The company is accelerating the integration into the supply chain of major domestic clients through a dual certification model of "technology + supply chain" [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global tin prices are expected to remain strong due to reduced LME inventories, bullish investor sentiment, and tight supply in the concentrate market [2][3][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the recovery of supply from Myanmar, liquidity remains weak [2]. - The semiconductor industry's stable demand is anticipated to continue supporting tin prices amid ongoing supply issues [3]. - Sucden Financial forecasts tin prices to range between $32,000 and $35,000 per ton in Q3 [4]. - LME three-month tin prices reported at $33,256 per ton, down 9.5% from the three-month high of $35,100 per ton on July 23 [5]. - The average tin price in July was above $35,500 per ton [6]. Supply Chain Developments - Reports indicate that mining licenses have finally been issued in Myanmar's Wa State, leading to a decline in tin prices [7]. - The issuance of licenses follows a period of supply disruptions in major tin-exporting countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia, with expectations of stable exports from these regions [8]. - Myanmar is the third-largest tin producer globally, with estimated reserves of 700,000 tons, accounting for 15% of the world's total reserves [8]. Inventory and Market Conditions - The U.S. refined tin imports have nearly doubled compared to the same period last year [10]. - Despite early signs of supply normalization, tin inventories remain unusually tight, with LME tin stocks significantly below long-term averages [10]. - Low visible inventories combined with increasing speculative interest may keep upward price risks high for the remainder of Q3 [11]. Future Price Projections - BMI has raised its average tin price forecast for 2025 from $32,000 to $33,000 per ton [3]. - Indonesia's tin exports have shown recovery, with refined tin exports in March reaching 580 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.8% [12]. - However, Indonesia's exports for January to May 2025 were 21,600 tons, a 110% increase year-on-year but a 10% decrease compared to the same period in 2023 [13]. - The easing of supply pressures and potential tariff headwinds are becoming key drivers for the tin market in the second half of the year [14]. Strategic Considerations - Sucden Financial notes that if physical supply tightens again or strategic demand grows faster than expected, significant price increases could occur [15]. - The global economic activity shows resilience supported by demand from the AI and electronics sectors, while low global tin inventories contribute to price volatility [16].