摩根士丹利策略师认为，市场可能严重低估了美股盈利增长的前景。 1、盈利修正广度出现历史性重新加速，3个月变化基础上达到+35%，这种情况仅在衰退后 的早期周期背景下出现。盈利修正广度的拐点以及费城联储调查的近期强势，都指向ISM制 造业PMI的上行空间。 2、积极经营杠杆的回归正推动该行非PMI盈利模型急剧上升。罗素3000指数成分股的中位 数每股收益增长在经历长期负增长或停滞后转为正值，目前达到+6%。股票与通胀预期的相 关性显著为正，这是典型的早期周期特征。 3、周期性股票相对防御性股票的比率较4月低点上涨约50%，打破了始于2024年4月的下跌 趋势，市场内部结构清楚地发出了前方更好增长背景的信号。 据追风交易台，该投行最新策略报告指出，积极的经营杠杆、不断下降的薪酬成本以及被压抑的需求正 推动每股收益修正转向积极，表明一些人担心的经济衰退已经过去。当前的关键问题是，美联储是否能 足够快地转变政策立场，满足市场对新一轮牛市延续的预期和需要。 大摩表示，滚动性衰退（部分行业衰退而整体经济仍维持正增长）已结束，美国经济正过渡到早期周期 背景，预计盈利增长将强于预期。收益修正广度的历史性重新加速（3个月变化基 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley expresses a cautious outlook for the first half of 2025 for the U.S. stock market but is optimistic about the second half and 2026, maintaining a 12-month target of 6,500 points for the S&P 500 index [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index components have experienced an average decline of 30% this year, indicating that market price lows may have already been reached [1] - The recent reduction of China's overall tariff rate from 145% to 30% significantly lowers recession risks [1] - Morgan Stanley's economists predict seven interest rate cuts in 2026, supporting above-average valuations [1] Group 2: Earnings Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts EPS of $259 for 2025 (7% growth), $283 for 2026 (9% growth), and $321 for 2027 (13% growth) [3] - The past three years have seen a "rolling earnings recession" in the U.S. stock market, easing year-over-year basis pressures and laying the groundwork for future EPS recovery [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company advises maintaining a "high-quality curve" in cyclical sectors and selectively hedging defensively, focusing on low-leverage, undervalued stocks [3] - The industrial sector rating has been upgraded from "neutral" to "overweight," benefiting from domestic infrastructure development, while the utilities sector rating has been downgraded from "overweight" to "neutral" [3] - The recommendation is to overweight large-cap stocks due to their stronger pricing power and lower sensitivity to backend interest rates, with a preference for the U.S. stock market over international markets [3]