摩根士丹利策略师认为，市场可能严重低估了美股盈利增长的前景。 1、盈利修正广度出现历史性重新加速，3个月变化基础上达到+35%，这种情况仅在衰退后 的早期周期背景下出现。盈利修正广度的拐点以及费城联储调查的近期强势，都指向ISM制 造业PMI的上行空间。 2、积极经营杠杆的回归正推动该行非PMI盈利模型急剧上升。罗素3000指数成分股的中位 数每股收益增长在经历长期负增长或停滞后转为正值，目前达到+6%。股票与通胀预期的相 关性显著为正，这是典型的早期周期特征。 3、周期性股票相对防御性股票的比率较4月低点上涨约50%，打破了始于2024年4月的下跌 趋势，市场内部结构清楚地发出了前方更好增长背景的信号。 据追风交易台，该投行最新策略报告指出，积极的经营杠杆、不断下降的薪酬成本以及被压抑的需求正 推动每股收益修正转向积极，表明一些人担心的经济衰退已经过去。当前的关键问题是，美联储是否能 足够快地转变政策立场，满足市场对新一轮牛市延续的预期和需要。 大摩表示，滚动性衰退（部分行业衰退而整体经济仍维持正增长）已结束，美国经济正过渡到早期周期 背景，预计盈利增长将强于预期。收益修正广度的历史性重新加速（3个月变化基 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the macroeconomic environment, particularly focusing on the U.S. economy and its transition into a fiscal dominance era, which is expected to influence global markets positively, especially in developed countries like the U.S., Europe, and Japan [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Dominance Era**: The U.S. is entering a fiscal dominance era where monetary policy will need to align with fiscal policy, leading to increased economic demand through investments and maintaining ample liquidity, particularly in dollars [2][3]. 2. **Economic Cycles**: The nominal economic cycle is at a low point, with expectations of a new upward cycle due to fiscal and monetary policy coordination. Global liquidity, especially in dollars, is also expected to enter a new easing phase, benefiting asset prices [3][4]. 3. **Increased Demand for Resources**: The re-industrialization and re-militarization in the U.S. and Europe will lead to a trend increase in demand for global resources and capital goods, with corporate capital expenditures expected to accelerate [4][6]. 4. **U.S. Small Business Recovery**: Small businesses, which account for over half of U.S. employment, are showing signs of recovery, with improvements in operational conditions and potential wage growth due to rising turnover rates [7][11]. 5. **Real Estate Market Stimulus**: The Trump administration may declare a housing emergency to stimulate the real estate market, potentially lowering mortgage rates and implementing unconventional measures to encourage lending [9][11]. 6. **Corporate Investment Trends**: There is a notable rebound in corporate equipment investment and durable goods orders, driven by policies like the "Great America Act," which incentivizes capital expenditures [10][11]. 7. **Future Policy Environment**: The U.S. is expected to maintain high fiscal deficits (around 6.4% for FY2024) and a loose monetary policy, with M2 growth rebounding, indicating a supportive environment for economic growth [11][12]. 8. **Inflation Outlook**: Inflation is projected to rise in the coming months, with the Fed likely to increase its tolerance for inflation under the Trump administration, which could support economic growth [16][17]. 9. **Global Market Dynamics**: The records highlight a potential shift in global capital flows, with emerging markets, particularly China, expected to benefit from a weaker dollar and increased liquidity [30][34]. Additional Important Insights - **Liquidity Risks**: The current dollar liquidity cycle is at a low point, with risks of liquidity events if bank reserves fall below safe thresholds [23]. - **Impact of External Markets**: The selling pressure in European and Japanese bonds may transmit to the U.S. bond market, potentially triggering a liquidity shock [26]. - **Foreign Investment in China**: There is a resurgence of interest from foreign investors in the Chinese market, particularly in Hong Kong, indicating a positive outlook for future trading volumes [35]. - **A-Share Market Dynamics**: The A-share market's performance may not align with economic data, as historical patterns suggest stock prices often recover before real estate prices stabilize [37]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for various markets.