风险规避

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一财社论:以中长期制度建设打造资本市场安全垫
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 13:02
护航居民存款搬家,让险资安心在权益市场安营扎寨,就要打破"牛短熊长"的宿命,通过中长期制度建 设护航市场投资功能 当前市场走得有耐心,另一个重要因素是,资产荒问题依然较为突出,限制了人们的选择空间,即市场 走强尚未得到上市公司基本面的有效支撑。7月诸多宏观数据显示,经济基本面的夯实工作还需进行更 多务实工作。 还必须正视的是,当前市场行情带有明显的损失规避效应特征,即权益市场的投资热情与投资者的风险 回避偏好,正在产生"奇怪"的化学反应。不论是险资,还是居民存款,其本质都是避险类资金,寻找的 是确定性收益机会,将这类资金引入市场,需要制度性的安全护航和保障,因为一旦风险规避型投资者 匹配了超越其风险意愿和风险承载能力的风险资产,不仅会给资本市场带来系统不稳定性,而且会给整 个金融市场乃至经济带来巨大风险隐患。这方面智利养老金的极速缩水风险需引以为戒;同时当前险资 入市看重的恰是稳定的股息率,这是由险资的资本属性决定的。因此,不能拿避险资金冒险是基本的底 线,这点各方面都要足够重视。 当然,居民储蓄存款、险资等入市,是大趋势,如何善待存款搬家,不将其置于其风险管控和风险承载 能力之外,是决策层和监管部门需施力的 ...
马斯克意识到危险,为什么把老爹送俄罗斯而不是中国?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-27 07:54
Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's decision to send his father to Russia is a strategic business move rather than a personal or emotional one, aimed at risk mitigation and strategic positioning in the global market [3][10][13]. Group 1: Business Strategy - Musk's business interests span multiple high-tech industries, including electric vehicles (Tesla), satellite internet (Starlink), space exploration (SpaceX), and brain-computer interfaces (Neuralink), all of which are critical in international competition [3][5]. - The relationship between Musk and China has been beneficial, particularly with the establishment of the Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai, which has received significant support from the Chinese government [5][10]. - Musk recognizes the risks of relying too heavily on a single market, especially given the fluctuating nature of U.S.-China relations, which could lead to sudden policy changes affecting his business in China [5][8]. Group 2: Geopolitical Considerations - Sending his father to Russia serves as a signal to both China and the U.S. that Musk is not overly reliant on any one country, thereby maintaining a balance in his international business dealings [10][11]. - Russia, despite its current economic challenges, possesses valuable space technology and experience, which could be advantageous for Musk's ambitions in space exploration [7][11]. - The U.S. government closely monitors Musk's activities due to his influence in strategic sectors, making it essential for him to navigate relationships carefully to avoid perceptions of favoritism towards China [8][13]. Group 3: Risk Management - Musk's approach reflects a broader understanding of the importance of maintaining multiple avenues for business operations, akin to diversifying investments to mitigate risks [13][14]. - The decision to establish a presence in Russia, while seemingly simple, is a calculated move to ensure that Musk has options and can adapt to changing geopolitical landscapes [10][15].
中东战争期间,我用GPT预测股票走势结果让人崩溃
阿尔法工场研究院· 2025-06-29 13:15
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on the stock market and presents trading recommendations based on AI analysis, highlighting the performance of these recommendations against human analyst suggestions [1][3][6]. Group 1: AI Trading Recommendations - Buy Lockheed Martin (LMT) due to expected increases in defense spending amid rising military tensions [4]. - Buy Exxon Mobil (XOM) or XLE oil and gas ETF as oil prices are likely to rise due to concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions [4]. - Buy gold, specifically through GLD ETF, as investors typically seek gold as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises [4]. - Short Delta Air Lines (DAL) as the airline is sensitive to fuel costs and traveler sentiment, which may be negatively impacted by rising oil prices and consumer anxiety [4]. - Short the S&P 500 index via SPY ETF or futures to profit from potential risk-averse reactions and overall market declines [4]. Group 2: Human Analyst Recommendations - The human analyst Dan Ives recommended a group of stocks referred to as TAMPON, which includes Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle, and Nvidia [5]. - Performance results showed that all AI recommendations underperformed, while the TAMPON stocks generally performed well, with notable increases in Tesla, Amazon, Microsoft, Palantir, Oracle, and Nvidia [6][7][8]. Group 3: Performance Analysis - Lockheed Martin fell over 2%, Exxon Mobil dropped over 3%, and XLE ETF also decreased more than 3%, indicating incorrect predictions by the AI [6][7]. - GLD ETF declined approximately 1%, while Delta Air Lines saw an increase of nearly 3%, further highlighting the inaccuracies in the AI's recommendations [7]. - In contrast, the TAMPON stocks experienced gains, with Nvidia rising nearly 8% and other stocks in the group also showing positive performance [7][8].
丙烯系列报告:丙烯期货及产业链基础知识
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 02:48
1. Report Core View - The launch of new propylene futures is expected to promote the combination of futures and spot markets, enhance and meet the diverse risk management needs of physical enterprises, help the market discover prices, and further promote the healthy and stable development of the industry. The report comprehensively analyzes and introduces the propylene variety from a basic perspective, covering futures contracts, industry characteristics, and development trends [2][3] 2. Report Content Summary 2.1 Propylene Futures Contract - **Contract Introduction**: The trading code of propylene futures is PL, with a trading unit of 20 tons per lot. Based on the average spot price of propylene in 2024 of about 6,900 yuan/ton, the value of each lot is about 138,000 yuan. The minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, and the contract months are from January to December. The last trading day is the 10th trading day of the contract month [7][9][10] - **Option Contract**: The trading code for call options is PL - contract month - C - strike price, and for put options is PL - contract month - P - strike price. The trading unit is 1 lot of propylene futures contract, the minimum price change is 0.5 yuan/ton, and the contract months are the two consecutive near - months of the underlying futures contract. The last trading day is the third - last trading day before (and including) the 15th calendar day of the month before the delivery month of the underlying futures contract [12] - **Delivery Grade**: The benchmark delivery product is Type I propylene that meets the requirements of "National Standard of the People's Republic of China - Polymer - grade Propylene" (GB/T 7716 - 2024), with a water content ≤ 20mg/kg, and no requirements for hydrogen and carbonyl sulfide. The alternative delivery product allows a water content of 20 - 50mg/kg, with other indicators the same as the benchmark product [7][14] - **Risk Management**: The minimum trading margin for propylene futures contracts is 5% of the contract value. The margin standard increases to 10% from the 16th calendar day of the month before the delivery month to the last calendar day of that month, and to 20% during the delivery month. The position limit for non - futures company members and customers is 2,000 lots from contract listing to the 15th calendar day of the month before the delivery month, 500 lots from the 16th calendar day to the last calendar day of that month, and 50 lots (0 for natural person customers) during the delivery month [16][17][18] 2.2 Propylene Basic Concepts - **Physical Properties**: Propylene has a density of 1.914 kg/m³, a melting point of - 185°C, a boiling point of - 47.7°C, a flash point of - 108°C, an ignition temperature of 460°C, and a saturated vapor pressure of 1158 kPa. It burns with a bright flame, has low solubility in water, and is soluble in organic solvents such as ethanol and ether [20] - **Chemical Properties**: The chemical properties of propylene are determined by the double bond and the hydrogen atoms on the allyl group. It is the smallest stable unsaturated hydrocarbon with low symmetry, an electric dipole moment of 0.35D, and is prone to various chemical reactions [21] - **Storage and Transportation**: Propylene should be stored in pressurized liquefied form in carbon steel or stainless - steel containers, and long - term storage can use low - temperature liquefaction with vacuum - insulated storage tanks. Safety measures such as fire and explosion prevention, leakage prevention, and electrostatic protection are required. Transportation methods include road, rail, sea, and pipeline, and appropriate means should be selected according to distance and volume [24] 2.3 Propylene Industry Chain - **Overview**: The propylene industry chain has the "petroleum - propylene - polypropylene" as the core. The upstream includes petroleum, natural gas, coal, propane, naphtha, and methanol. The mid - stream involves production processes such as cracking, dehydrogenation, and coal - chemical processes. The downstream includes chemicals such as polypropylene, propylene oxide, and butanol, and the end - use demand is complex, covering multiple fields such as plastics, coatings, and textiles [26] - **Production Processes** - **Steam Cracking**: It is the core process for producing low - carbon olefins in the petrochemical industry, with ethylene as the core product and propylene as a co - product. In 2024, it accounted for about 35% of propylene supply. The product yield is negatively correlated with the molecular weight of the raw material. Although it currently maintains a basic supply position, its share is gradually decreasing [32] - **Catalytic Cracking**: It is a key secondary processing technology in oil refining. The conventional propylene yield is about 4%, while the DCC technology can achieve a propylene yield of over 20% [36] - **Coal - to - Propylene**: It includes CTO and MTO/MTP technologies. The MTP technology can increase the propylene selectivity to over 70%. China's coal - to - olefin industry is on a sustainable development path [39] - **Propane/Alkane Dehydrogenation**: The PDH process uses propane as the raw material and has advantages such as a short construction period, low investment cost, and low carbon emissions. In 2024, it accounted for about 30% of domestic propylene production capacity. The MDH process uses liquefied petroleum gas as the raw material and has strong raw material adaptability [41][42]
突发!狂跌近800点
天天基金网· 2025-06-15 09:01
以下文章来源于东方财富网 ,作者十字路口 东方财富网 . 东方财富网,中国财经门户,提供7*24小时财经资讯及全球金融市场报价,汇聚全方位的综合财经新闻 和金融市场资讯。 当地时间周五(06月13日)美股三大指数收盘全线下跌。截至收盘,道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下 跌769.83点,收于42197.79点,跌幅为1.79%;标准普尔500种股票指数下跌68.29点,收于5976.97点, 跌幅为1.13%;纳斯达克综合指数下跌255.65点,收于19406.83点,跌幅为1.3%。本周道指累跌1.32%, 纳指累跌0.63%,标普500指数累跌0.39%。 | 东方 财富 | O Q 知名美股 | | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新_ 涨幅。 总量。 | | 特斯拉 TSLA | 325.310 1.94% 1.29亿股 | | 英伟达 NVDA | 141.970 -2.09% 1.81亿股 | | 甲骨文 ODCI | 215.220 7.69% 5371万股 | | 李尚 | 196.450 -1.38% 5145万股 | | --- | --- | | AAPL | | | 微软 | ...
突发!狂跌近800点
天天基金网· 2025-06-15 02:18
以下文章来源于东方财富网 ,作者十字路口 东方财富网 . | 3 0 3/ 4 | | --- | | 甲骨文 | 215.220 7.69% 5371万股 | | --- | --- | | ORCL | | | 苹果 | 196.450 -1.38% 5145万股 | | AAPL | | | 微软 | 474.960 -0.82% 1681万股 | | MSFT | | | | Meta Platforms Inc-A 682.870 -1.51% 927万股 | | META | | | 亚马逊 | 212.100 -0.53% 2934万股 | | AMZN | | | 维萨 | 352.850 -4.99% 1418万股 | | 谷歌-A | 174.670 -0.59% 2766万股 | | GOOGL | | | 博通 | 248.700 -2.88% 1903万股 | | AVGO | | | 超威半导体 | 116.160 -1.97% 3970万股 | | AMD | | | 联合健康 | 313.530 -1.56% 1376万股 | | UNH | | (图片来源:东方财富APP,统 ...
普通人积累财富的8大诀窍,学会你也能成为富人!
天天基金网· 2025-06-14 09:02
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of saving a portion of income immediately, suggesting at least 10%-20% should be saved before spending [2] - It advocates for meticulous tracking of expenses to understand where money is going, thereby controlling spending and avoiding deficits [3] - The article highlights the need to identify non-essential expenses and reduce them in the following month [5] - It stresses the significance of investing savings rather than letting them sit in low-interest bank accounts, noting that risk and return are proportional [5] - The article promotes a dual approach of cost-cutting (saving money, tracking expenses) and income generation (earning more, investing) [9] - It advises against falling into debt traps and get-rich-quick schemes, recommending insurance as a safety net [10] - The article concludes that wealth accumulation is a long-term process requiring patience and consistent application of the outlined principles [11]
帮主郑重:中东火药桶引爆全球市场!这次动荡会是暴风雨前的宁静吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-14 03:45
Group 1 - The global financial market experienced significant turmoil due to Iran launching over 150 missiles towards Israel, causing widespread panic and sell-offs [1][3] - European stock markets saw a sharp decline, with the German DAX index dropping significantly, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 700 points, equivalent to the GDP of a medium-sized city [3] - The U.S. stock market faced a massive outflow, with $9.8 billion redeemed from stock funds in a single week, marking the highest level of redemptions in 11 weeks [3] Group 2 - The Middle East is crucial for global energy supply, with Iran being the third-largest oil producer in OPEC; tensions in the region led to a 10% spike in international oil prices, pushing WTI crude oil above $77 per barrel [3] - The potential for a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 30% of the world's seaborne oil passes, could drive oil prices to $120 per barrel, posing a severe risk to the global economy [3] Group 3 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that Trump's tariff policies could push U.S. inflation towards 3%, while the Federal Reserve may need to maintain its current stance due to rising inflation pressures [4] - The U.S. economy is facing recession risks, creating a precarious situation for the Federal Reserve as it navigates between inflation control and economic stability [4] Group 4 - The market has entered a "risk-averse" phase, with gold prices rising to $3,450 per ounce, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets [5] - The IMF has warned of increased global financial stability risks, highlighting issues such as high leverage in hedge funds and sovereign debt problems, particularly with U.S. national debt reaching 123% of GDP [5]
普通人积累财富的8大诀窍,学会你也能成为富人!
天天基金网· 2025-06-14 02:32
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of managing income effectively by saving a portion immediately, ideally 10%-20%, before allocating the rest for expenses [2] - It advocates for meticulous tracking of daily expenditures to understand spending habits and avoid overspending [3] - The article suggests identifying non-essential expenses to reduce spending in the following month [5] - It highlights the necessity of investing savings rather than letting them sit in low-interest bank accounts, stressing that risk and return are proportional [5] - The article promotes a dual approach of cost-cutting (saving money) and income generation (earning more through investments) [9] - It warns against debt traps and get-rich-quick schemes, recommending insurance as a safety net [10] - The article concludes that wealth accumulation is a long-term process requiring patience and consistent application of the outlined principles [11]
全线大跌!利空来袭,猛烈抛售700亿!
券商中国· 2025-06-14 02:27
地缘局势不确定性升级,再度引发全球金融市场动荡。 猛烈抛售 受中东紧张局势升级影响,欧洲股市全线下挫,美股三大指数亦集体大跌,道指重挫超700点,大跌1.79%; 纳指、标普500指数均跌超1%。美国银行公布的最新数据显示,截至本周三的一周内,美国股票基金的赎回规 模达到约98亿美元(约合人民币超700亿元),创11周以来新高。 有分析称,目前市场行为完全符合"风险规避"模式,这或许只是市场的起点。投资者正密切关注中东局势走 向、美国经济前景和美联储的货币政策路径。 针对美联储货币政策的走向,美国前财长耶伦在最新的讲话中预测,美国总统特朗普的关税政策将导致通胀上 升,今年的通胀率将至少达到3%,美联储会继续坚定地保持按兵不动。 美国银行公布的最新数据显示,美国股票基金遭遇近3个月来最大规模的资金流出。 报告显示,截至本周三的一周内,美国股票基金的赎回规模达到约98亿美元(约合人民币超700亿元),创11 周以来新高。与此同时,今年表现显著优于美股的欧洲基金,也遭遇了近9周以来首次资金净流出,净流出规 模达到6亿美元。 值得注意的是,这份数据并未反映本周五的全球金融市场动荡。在中东紧张局势升级的影响下,欧洲主 ...