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释放诚意的部分完成,步入实质性阶段
China Post Securities· 2025-05-13 05:31
Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for the first 90 days[2] - After the suspension, the average tariff rate imposed by the US on China will be 51%, which is higher than the average non-MFN (Most Favored Nation) tariff rate of 42%[2][16] - The negotiations indicate a willingness to communicate, moving from an irrational tariff level to a more rational one, suggesting the start of substantive trade discussions[3][18] Group 2: Impact on Trade and Exports - During the 90-day suspension period, China's export growth to the US may decline by 21.6% to 27.6%[4][21] - In April, China's export growth to the US was -21.03%, indicating that further deterioration is unlikely within the year[4][21] - High price elasticity industries, such as optical and medical instruments, are more sensitive to tariff changes, with significant impacts expected from tariff adjustments[5][23] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The positive outcome of the trade talks is expected to enhance market risk appetite and support domestic economic improvement[6][24] - The Chinese government is adopting a more proactive policy stance, which may lead to accelerated implementation of existing policies in the second quarter[6][24] - Future negotiations may still face uncertainties, reflecting the historical behavior of the Trump administration regarding trade policies[3][26]