点击小程序查看报告原文 今年1-7月，我国出口同比增速要远高于市场预期。我们认为，在全球产业链重构的背景下，新兴市场和发展中国家工业化加速，而中国完整 的供应链叠加竞争力提升，使得我国中间品出口提速，对我国出口增速形成重要支撑。今年1-7月，我国中间品出口强于资本品、消费品，中 间品的出口增长主要是对新兴市场/发展中国家的中间品出口提升。在中间品出口的推动下，我国对非美地区的出口增速较高。行业上，机 电、贱金属、运输设备、精密仪器的中间品出口增速较高，或反映了我国制造业的规模经济优势，以及科技创新能力的提升。 2025年1-7月，我国出口以美元计价累计同比增长6.1%。而在全球关税扰动之下，市场对2025年的出口增速预期仅为0.88%（图表1）。为什么 我国出口增速要远高于市场预期？我们此前在 《解码出口新常态》 中提出，在全球产业链重构的背景下，新兴市场和发展中国家工业化加 速，带动了我国中间品的出口，是我国出口增速较高的重要支撑，而市场对此有所低估。 图表1：今年1-7月的出口同比增速超出市场预期 资料来源：iFinD，海关总署，中金公司研究部 2025年1-7月，我国中间品出口强于资本品、消费品，是出口 ...

服务业发展势头良好，数字经济引领增长。1—6月，全市规模以上服务业营业收入10944亿元，同比增 长8.6%，增速较1—5月加快0.6个百分点。其中，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业增长12.7%，科学研 究和技术服务业增长6.2%，增速均有所提升。数字经济核心产业服务业、高技术服务业营业收入分别 增长12.6%和11.8%，成为服务业增长的重要引擎。这表明杭州在打造数字经济第一城方面持续发力， 数字技术创新与产业升级相互促进的发展格局进一步巩固。 杭州市统计局日前发布全市1—7月经济运行情况，数据展示了杭州经济强劲的脉搏——消费政策稳步推 进需求回升，消费市场继续恢复，出口突围验证开放路径有效，工业稳健支撑基本面，新质生产力的迅 速起势更预示着未来转型的动能所在，呈现出既稳得住、又迸发新活力的特点。 消费市场持续回暖，升级类消费表现亮眼。1—7月，全市社会消费品零售总额5271亿元，同比增长 5.1%。在"以旧换新"等促消费政策带动下，家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类商品零售额分别增长 86.3%和34.5%，新能源汽车零售额增长23.7%，显示绿色消费、智能消费成为新趋势。升级类消费需求 旺盛，体育娱乐用品 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that trade between China and other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has shown steady growth, with a trade volume of $247.7 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1][3] - Over the past five years, trade volume between China and SCO member countries has consistently surpassed $300 billion, $400 billion, and $500 billion, reaching a historical high of $512.4 billion in 2024, which represents a growth of 2.7% compared to the previous year [6][8] Group 2 - China primarily exports electromechanical products, automobiles and parts, clothing, and chemicals to other member countries, while importing oil and gas, agricultural products, coal, and minerals [6] - As of June 2025, China's direct investment stock in other member countries exceeds $40 billion, with investments expanding from traditional sectors like energy and infrastructure to emerging fields such as digital economy and green development [10] - Chinese enterprises are implementing clean energy projects in regional countries, including wind, solar, and hydropower, and are accelerating cooperation in areas like 5G, internet, and smart cities to assist local traditional industries in upgrading [10]

Core Insights - The Yangtze River Delta region has achieved impressive foreign trade results, with imports and exports totaling 9.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, accounting for 37.3% of the national total [1] Group 1: Export Performance - The export structure has been optimized, with high value-added products leading the growth [2] - Mechanical and electrical products remain the mainstay of exports, with a total export value of 3.64 trillion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year [2] - Notable growth in specific sectors includes electric vehicles (up 43.9%), high-end equipment (up 10.2%), and integrated circuits (up 20.1%) [2][3] - Jiangsu province exported 1.52 trillion yuan in mechanical and electrical products, a 10.7% increase, contributing 69% to the province's total exports [2] - Anhui province's mechanical and electrical product exports reached 260.15 billion yuan, growing 16.2% and accounting for 71.3% of its total exports [2] Group 2: Market Diversification - The Yangtze River Delta is actively implementing a market diversification strategy, achieving significant results in expanding trade relationships [4] - ASEAN has become the largest trading partner, with imports and exports totaling 1.51 trillion yuan, a 17.5% increase [4] - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 4.77 trillion yuan, up 10.3%, while trade with RCEP member countries grew by 8.9% to 3.02 trillion yuan [4][5] - Zhejiang province's exports to ASEAN and the EU increased by 15.6% and 9.4%, respectively [5] Group 3: Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises have played a crucial role in foreign trade, with imports and exports totaling 5.35 trillion yuan, a 9.5% increase, accounting for 55.8% of the total [6] - In Ningbo, private enterprises' exports grew by 7.1%, contributing significantly to the city's overall trade growth [6] - Anhui's private enterprises saw a 16.7% increase in exports, while Jiangsu's private sector contributed to a 3% growth in total exports [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties in foreign trade, particularly regarding US-China tariff negotiations, there are recommendations for enhancing international cooperation and expanding imports from major trading partners [7] - Strengthening regional cooperation and optimizing industrial structures are seen as key strategies for maintaining the region's leading position in the global economy [7]

Core Insights - Henan Province's foreign trade import and export reached 483.38 billion yuan in the first seven months, growing by 22.3% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the national growth rate of 3.5% by 18.8 percentage points, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - Exports totaled 324.31 billion yuan, an increase of 32.8%, while imports were 159.07 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% [1] Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The vitality of foreign trade entities has increased, with private enterprises becoming the main engine for trade growth, and foreign-invested enterprises showing the fastest growth rate [1] - The number of foreign trade enterprises in Henan reached 12,200, an increase of 1,200 year-on-year, with 636 enterprises having an import and export value exceeding 50 million yuan, accounting for 88.1% of the province's total foreign trade [1] - Private enterprises' import and export value was 356.06 billion yuan, up 17.7%, representing 73.7% of the total foreign trade value; foreign-invested enterprises had an import and export value of 96.36 billion yuan, growing by 64.4% [1] Group 2: Export Markets - Henan's export markets have diversified, with significant growth in trade with the EU, South Korea, and Japan [2] - Exports to the EU reached 65.76 billion yuan, growing by 28.7%; exports to ASEAN were 64.8 billion yuan, up 8.4%; exports to South Korea were 31.86 billion yuan, increasing by 16.6%; and exports to Japan surged by 133.4% to 31.65 billion yuan [2] - Trade with Belt and Road countries amounted to 236.44 billion yuan, growing by 16.1%, while trade with RCEP member countries reached 144.54 billion yuan, increasing by 26% [2] Group 3: Export Products - The "new" and "green" content of Henan's foreign trade has further improved, with high-tech product exports reaching 114.4 billion yuan, growing by 33.4%, contributing 35.8% to the overall export growth [2] - Exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products, representing green low-carbon products, totaled 16.09 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 158.1% [2] - Exports of agricultural products and silver also maintained rapid growth, reaching 9.84 billion yuan and 7.78 billion yuan, with growth rates of 28.9% and 20.7%, respectively [2] Group 4: Import Products - Certain key raw materials and agricultural products saw rapid growth in imports, with imports of electromechanical products totaling 87.71 billion yuan, growing by 10.2% [3] - Integrated circuits accounted for 34.24 billion yuan in imports, increasing by 8.8%, while automatic data processing equipment and parts surged by 642.5% to 4.69 billion yuan [3] - Agricultural product imports reached 9.53 billion yuan, growing by 28.4%, and imports of unrefined copper and copper materials totaled 5.76 billion yuan, increasing by 81% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Yangtze River Delta region has achieved a record high in foreign trade, with a total import and export value of 9.59 trillion yuan in the first seven months of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and accounting for 37.3% of the national total [3]. Summary by Sections Export Growth - Mechanical and electrical products remain the mainstay of exports, with a total export value of 3.64 trillion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year. Notable growth was seen in electric vehicles (43.9%), high-end equipment (10.2%), and integrated circuits (20.1%) [5]. - Jiangsu province exported mechanical and electrical products worth 1.52 trillion yuan, a growth of 10.7%, contributing 7.3 percentage points to the province's overall export growth [6]. - Anhui province's mechanical and electrical product exports reached 260.15 billion yuan, growing 16.2% and accounting for 71.3% of the province's total exports [6]. - Zhejiang province's mechanical and electrical product exports grew by 9.7%, making up 46.8% of the province's total exports, with high-tech product exports increasing by 14.3% [6][7]. Private Enterprises' Role - Private enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta have significantly contributed to foreign trade, with a total import and export value of 5.35 trillion yuan, up 9.5% year-on-year, representing 55.8% of the total [9]. - In Ningbo, private enterprises' imports and exports grew by 7.1%, contributing 5.4 percentage points to the city's total foreign trade [9]. - Anhui province's private enterprises saw a 16.7% increase in imports and exports, while Jiangsu's private enterprises grew by 3% [9]. Trade Relationships - The Yangtze River Delta has diversified its trade relationships, with imports and exports to ASEAN growing by 17.5%, and to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative increasing by 10.3% [10]. - Zhejiang's exports to the EU and ASEAN grew by 9.4% and 15.6%, respectively, with significant increases in emerging markets [10][11]. - Anhui province's trade with ASEAN increased by 35.7%, while Jiangsu's trade with Belt and Road countries rose to nearly 50% [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy shows positive signs in July 2025, with both exports and imports experiencing growth, indicating a resilient external trade environment despite global economic challenges [1][3][5]. Group 1: Export Growth - In July, China's total goods import and export volume increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8%, marking a 0.8 percentage point acceleration from the previous month [1]. - The growth in exports is supported by the diversification of foreign trade, with significant increases in exports to ASEAN (14.8%), the EU (8.2%), and Belt and Road countries (11.7%) from January to July [4]. - The competitiveness of export products has improved, with a 9.3% year-on-year increase in electromechanical product exports, and a notable 21.8% growth in integrated circuit exports during the same period [4]. Group 2: Import Recovery - Imports also showed a positive trend, with a 4.8% year-on-year increase in July, reflecting a 2.4 percentage point acceleration from the previous month [3]. - The recovery in imports is expected to expand global market demand and contribute to the recovery of the world economy [3]. Group 3: Supportive Environment for Trade - The vitality of foreign trade enterprises remains strong, particularly among private enterprises, which saw an 8.7% year-on-year increase in exports from January to July, outpacing the overall export growth rate [4]. - Despite external uncertainties and pressures on some foreign trade enterprises, China's commitment to high-level opening-up and a complete industrial system will continue to support stable foreign trade development [5].

Group 1 - The global zero-carbon economy is accelerating the formation of a new green trade rule system, with over 100 countries, including China, setting zero-carbon targets and exploring potential opportunities [1] - The EU has established a comprehensive system to address sustainable development challenges, which poses significant challenges for China as the EU's second-largest trading partner [1] - Chinese foreign trade enterprises face both challenges and opportunities in responding to green trade barriers, emphasizing the need for low-carbon green transformation [1] Group 2 - Nanjing Jiuchi Electromechanical Co., Ltd. faced difficulties in carbon footprint accounting due to customer demands for detailed product carbon data, highlighting the pressure on manufacturing enterprises [2] - The establishment of green low-carbon working groups aims to provide pilot services for carbon footprint accounting, CBAM reporting, and regulatory consultation to manufacturing enterprises [3] - The "carbon account" concept is crucial for customs to verify the authenticity of carbon data submitted by enterprises, which will influence carbon tax assessments [3] Group 3 - The pilot program is seen as a starting point for exploring green transformation in foreign trade, addressing compliance challenges for enterprises through collaboration among government, professional institutions, and law firms [4] - Future efforts will focus on training enterprises in product classification techniques and providing long-term, precise "carbon support" to enhance "green competitiveness" in foreign trade [4]

Export and Trade Data - July exports in USD increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from June, alleviating concerns about a significant decline in exports for the second half of the year[4] - Imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year in July, a substantial increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, with imports from the US dropping to -18.9%, the lowest level this year[6] PPI and CPI Trends - July PPI month-on-month was -0.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while year-on-year PPI remained stable at -3.6%[8] - July CPI year-on-year was 0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with core CPI at 0.8%, up 0.1 percentage points[11] Market Dynamics - Recent shifts indicate a transition from safe assets to risk assets among residents and financial institutions, driven by low bond yields and a rising equity market since the beginning of the year[16] - The current equity market is experiencing a bullish atmosphere, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, reflecting an increase in market risk appetite[16] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is changing, suggesting that the most significant downward pressure on the economy may be behind, which is a fundamental driver for the stock-bond switch[18] - The expectation of a stable economic recovery, supported by proactive credit expansion, is likely to push the equity market to higher levels[18] US Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for US interest rate cuts have risen, with projections indicating approximately three rate cuts in 2025, totaling around 57 basis points[26]

Core Viewpoint - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with exports increasing by 7.3% and imports decreasing by 1.6% [5]. Trade Performance - Total goods trade value for July 2025 was 3.91 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan (up 8%) and imports at 1.6 trillion yuan (up 4.8%) [5]. - General trade and processing trade both saw increases, with general trade at 16.44 trillion yuan (up 2.1%) and processing trade at 4.6 trillion yuan (up 6.3%) [5][6]. Trade Partners - ASEAN emerged as China's largest trading partner with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan (up 9.4%), followed by the EU at 3.35 trillion yuan (up 3.9%) and the US at 2.42 trillion yuan (down 11.1%) [5][6]. Enterprise Contributions - Private enterprises contributed significantly with a total trade value of 14.68 trillion yuan (up 7.4%), accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade [6]. - Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 7.46 trillion yuan (up 2.6%), while state-owned enterprises saw a decline to 3.49 trillion yuan (down 8.8%) [6]. Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products constituted 60% of exports, totaling 9.18 trillion yuan (up 9.3%), with notable growth in integrated circuits (up 21.8%) and automobiles (up 10.9%) [6]. - Labor-intensive products saw a slight decline in exports, totaling 2.41 trillion yuan (down 0.8%) [6]. Import Trends - Major bulk commodity prices fell, with iron ore imports at 6.97 million tons (down 2.3%) and crude oil at 3.27 million tons (up 2.8%) [7]. - Imports of mechanical and electrical products increased to 4.09 trillion yuan (up 5.8%) [7].