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世贸组织总干事:关税对国际贸易体系造成二战来最严重破坏
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 04:54
当地时间9月2日,世界贸易组织(WTO)总干事恩戈齐·奥孔乔-伊韦阿拉接受采访时警告,关税正在对国际贸易体系造 成80年来"前所未见"的破坏。 美国国会会联合经济委员会少数党(民主党)发报告警告,如果特朗普关税引发的经济不确定性持续,美国制造业投资 可能平均每年减少13%,到2029年累计缩水约4900亿美元。报告指出,自特朗普4月宣布所谓"对等关税"以来,美国制 造业丧失了3.7万个工作岗位,制造业的招聘跌至近10年来最低。 美国税收基金会最新更新的预测指出,特朗普关税相当于今年让每个美国家庭平均多缴1304美元税款,到2026年将升至 1588美元。2026年,特朗普关税将让美国市场收入下降1.5%。 作为美国的第六大贸易伙伴,韩国8月出口增速已大幅放缓。韩国贸易、工业和能源部9月1日公布的数据显示,8月韩国 出口额同比增长1.3%,至584亿美元。虽然连续三个月实现同比正增长,但8月的增幅远低于7月的5.9%增幅。在韩国对 美15大主力出口品类中,有11项出现下滑。其中钢铁同比骤降32.1%,成为受冲击最严重的领域。韩国央行预测,美国 的贸易不确定性将导致韩国今年GDP增长下降0.13 个百分点。 日本 ...
辉瑞CEO:药品关税会有一段宽限期,前几年会比较低,公司正在为执行降价做准备
美股IPO· 2025-08-06 13:22
Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is engaged in productive discussions with the Trump administration regarding drug tariffs and the "Most Favored Nations" pricing policy, with potential for lower initial tariffs and a grace period, but the specifics will ultimately determine the real impact on Pfizer and the industry [1][3][4]. Group 1: Drug Tariffs - Pfizer's CEO, Albert Bourla, indicated that ongoing negotiations may provide some buffer for the industry against high tariffs and pricing pressures [3]. - Bourla revealed that initial tariffs could be "very small" and that the President has opened a window for a grace period [3][9]. - The definition of "country of origin" for drugs is crucial, as it will affect how tariffs are applied, particularly concerning active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) [10]. Group 2: Most Favored Nations Pricing - Pfizer has received a letter from the White House requesting significant price reductions for drugs under the "Most Favored Nations" principle, aligning U.S. prices with those of other developed countries [11]. - The company is preparing for the implementation of price reductions while seeking ways to mitigate negative impacts [12]. - Bourla emphasized that the details of this policy are still under discussion, highlighting the importance of specifics in determining the policy's effects [13]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Pfizer reported strong Q2 earnings with revenue of $14.65 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations [6]. - The adjusted earnings per share were $0.78, significantly above the expected $0.58, leading to an upward revision of the 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $2.90-$3.10 [6]. - Despite the strong performance, the revenue guidance for 2025 remains unchanged at $61-$64 billion, partly due to uncertainties regarding COVID-19 product revenues [8]. Group 4: Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from Bank of America noted that most questions during Pfizer's earnings call focused on policy impacts, particularly regarding the "Most Favored Nations" policy and drug tariffs, but many questions went unanswered [5][7]. - The uncertainty surrounding the implementation details of these policies has led to concerns about the long-term outlook for Pfizer's major businesses, especially with upcoming patent expirations and competitive threats [5][12]. - Pfizer's current valuation is relatively low compared to peers, but the long-term prospects remain uncertain due to these challenges [5].
摊牌了,美国两院联合提案,废除中方一项地位,专家:比加税严重!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 01:46
Core Viewpoint - A proposal from some U.S. lawmakers aims to revoke China's Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) status, which has been in place since China's accession to the WTO in 2001, potentially destabilizing U.S.-China trade relations and impacting the global economy more severely than tariffs imposed during the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Implications - The revocation of MFN status would lead to higher tariffs on Chinese goods, which could increase costs for American consumers who rely heavily on Chinese products, including electronics and household items [3][4]. - The U.S. aims to reduce dependence on Chinese goods and restore its manufacturing sector, but this approach may be overly idealistic given the hollowing out of U.S. manufacturing and the outflow of technology and capital [3][4]. - The proposal could result in a short-term weakening of the Chinese economy, but the long-term consequences would likely be detrimental to U.S. consumers, who would face higher prices [3][4]. Group 2: Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. lawmakers' proposal underestimates China's ability to respond to challenges, as China's economic structure has evolved beyond low-cost manufacturing, making its position in the global supply chain nearly unassailable [4][5]. - The attempt to isolate China through such policies contradicts the trend of globalization, and could lead to greater difficulties for the U.S. if trade conflicts arise [4][5]. - Revoking MFN status undermines the principles of fair trade established by the WTO and could destabilize the international trade system, which has been built on the foundation of mutual economic cooperation [5][7]. Group 3: Political Motivations - The proposal reflects deeper political motivations to curb China's rise and restore U.S. manufacturing, but it fails to recognize the interdependence of U.S.-China economic relations [3][7]. - The U.S. has historically advocated for free trade, and reversing this stance could lead to global criticism and opposition from other economic entities [4][5].
关于科创债的一个梦(原创)
叫小宋 别叫总· 2025-08-01 13:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by investment firms in managing liquidity and funding new projects when capital is tied up in existing investments, and explores potential solutions such as acquiring invested companies and utilizing new financial instruments like science and technology bonds to alleviate funding difficulties [1][10]. Group 1: Liquidity Challenges - Investment firms are experiencing a liquidity crunch as funds are locked in existing projects, making it difficult to invest in new opportunities [1][7]. - The low interest rates on bank loans present a potential solution, but banks prefer tangible assets over equity stakes in invested companies [1][2]. Group 2: Proposed Solutions - One suggested approach is for investment firms to acquire their invested companies, allowing these companies to take loans and return funds to the investment firm [2][3]. - Another strategy involves leveraging state-owned limited partners (LPs) to acquire invested companies, enhancing their creditworthiness and enabling them to issue bonds for funding [3][10]. Group 3: Risk Management - The article highlights the importance of negotiating "contingent agreements" or "drawer agreements" to protect the investment firm's interests, ensuring that if other shareholders have similar agreements, the firm can benefit from the same terms [4][5]. - Continuous monitoring of invested companies' performance is crucial to identify potential triggers for these agreements and act accordingly [3][4]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes - The introduction of science and technology bonds allows investment firms to issue bonds directly, simplifying the fundraising process and reducing reliance on complex and potentially unethical maneuvers [10][11][12]. - This regulatory change is seen as a positive development, instilling greater confidence in the industry and motivating firms to pursue legitimate funding avenues [12].
美国不平等协议产生三大风险
日经中文网· 2025-07-31 02:38
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of recent trade agreements between the U.S. and various countries, highlighting a shift from rule-based trade to power-based trade, with the EU accepting what is termed an "unequal agreement" [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Tariff Changes - The EU has agreed to eliminate tariffs on U.S. industrial products, including a 10% tariff on automobiles, marking a significant shift in trade policy [2]. - In addition to the EU, countries like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam have also agreed to reduce or eliminate tariffs on U.S. products, with Indonesia planning to remove tariffs on 99% of U.S. goods [2]. - The U.S. plans to impose reciprocal tariffs of 15% on EU products and 19% on Indonesian products, indicating that the agreements are favorable to the U.S. [2][3]. Group 2: Risks to Global Trade - The collapse of the transparent World Trade Organization (WTO) system is a significant risk, as the EU's actions violate the Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) principle, which has been a cornerstone of international trade since 1948 [2][3]. - The potential damage to emerging and developing countries' international trade is highlighted, as unequal rules could hinder their market access despite improvements in competitiveness [3]. - The fragmentation of global trade is another risk, as countries like India and Brazil resist entering unequal agreements with the U.S., while China takes countermeasures against U.S. policies [3][4]. Group 3: The Shift in Global Economic Order - The article notes a division in the global economy into blocs led by the U.S. and its allies, and a separate group centered around China, which could lead to increased geopolitical tensions [4]. - The abandonment of the MFN principle in U.S.-EU agreements is seen as a significant loophole that undermines the establishment of future international rules, particularly in areas like climate change [4]. - The commentary from former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard emphasizes the dangers of a return to a "jungle law" scenario, where the strong dominate the weak, threatening global peace and stability [4].
全球制药业洞察 | 特朗普“磨刀霍霍”向药价,药企谈判筹码何在?
彭博Bloomberg· 2025-06-04 08:57
Core Viewpoint - The reintroduction of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing by former President Trump poses a threat to pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer and AstraZeneca, potentially leading to lower drug prices as part of the Inflation Reduction Act negotiations [3][4]. Group 1: Impact of MFN Pricing - The Biden administration has set the prices for the first ten Medicare Part D drugs to be 38%-79% lower than the list price and 13%-57% lower than the net price, indicating significant price reductions [4]. - The MFN pricing initiative may face legal challenges, complicating the implementation of price controls on domestic drug pricing [6]. - The White House's announcement of the highest fair prices in November could be a pivotal moment in the negotiations, as the Inflation Reduction Act sets price ceilings without establishing minimums [4][6]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMMI) model proposed by Trump aims to link reimbursement for the top 50 highest spending Medicare drugs to foreign payment prices, although its implementation has faced procedural hurdles [6]. - The guidance released by Medicare regarding combination products may negatively impact companies like Merck, which are attempting to protect monopoly pricing through the development of subcutaneous versions of older therapies [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The MFN executive order may compel pharmaceutical companies to lower the list prices of certain drugs or bypass drug benefit managers to align with the administration's objectives [9]. - Monitoring of protected category drugs, such as AstraZeneca's Calquence and Pfizer's Ibrance, is crucial as Medicare Part D coverage requirements could lead to reduced rebates [4].
释放诚意的部分完成,步入实质性阶段
China Post Securities· 2025-05-13 05:31
Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has reduced tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for the first 90 days[2] - After the suspension, the average tariff rate imposed by the US on China will be 51%, which is higher than the average non-MFN (Most Favored Nation) tariff rate of 42%[2][16] - The negotiations indicate a willingness to communicate, moving from an irrational tariff level to a more rational one, suggesting the start of substantive trade discussions[3][18] Group 2: Impact on Trade and Exports - During the 90-day suspension period, China's export growth to the US may decline by 21.6% to 27.6%[4][21] - In April, China's export growth to the US was -21.03%, indicating that further deterioration is unlikely within the year[4][21] - High price elasticity industries, such as optical and medical instruments, are more sensitive to tariff changes, with significant impacts expected from tariff adjustments[5][23] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The positive outcome of the trade talks is expected to enhance market risk appetite and support domestic economic improvement[6][24] - The Chinese government is adopting a more proactive policy stance, which may lead to accelerated implementation of existing policies in the second quarter[6][24] - Future negotiations may still face uncertainties, reflecting the historical behavior of the Trump administration regarding trade policies[3][26]
英国官员:我们已达成协议,将为钢铁设定配额,并以最惠国待遇的价格提供。
news flash· 2025-05-08 20:12
Group 1 - The UK officials have reached an agreement to set quotas for steel and provide prices based on the most-favored-nation treatment [1]
中信建投 美国关税政策解读及展望
2025-03-07 07:47
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. tariff policies** and their implications for **U.S.-China trade relations**. Core Points and Arguments - The U.S. has escalated tariffs on Chinese goods, with most facing a total tariff of up to **45%**, including an initial **25%** tariff and an additional **20%** tariff, significantly impacting U.S.-China trade relations [2][3][8] - The U.S. government frequently utilizes the **International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)** as a legal basis for imposing tariffs, allowing the president to act swiftly without lengthy investigations or public consultations, which has sparked controversy [2][5][13] - The U.S. has requested **Canada** and **Mexico** to impose a **25%** tariff on Chinese goods in exchange for a mere **2%** tariff on their products, potentially leading to price increases and supply chain shifts in these countries, posing challenges to the **U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)** [2][6] - The U.S. plans to implement **"reciprocal tariffs"**, applying the same tariff levels to all countries to address perceived unfair trade practices, which may include a **17%** value-added tax in import tariffs, affecting global trade dynamics [2][7][10] - If the U.S. revokes China's **Most-Favored-Nation (MFN)** status, it would significantly raise the tariff costs for Chinese goods entering the U.S. market, diminishing their competitiveness and causing substantial disruptions in U.S.-China trade relations [2][8][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The U.S. has introduced new regulations on **smart connected vehicles** and high-tech products, banning products from hostile nations (like China) based on the identity of the controlling entity, not just the country of origin [3][15] - Chinese investments in the U.S. face national security scrutiny, and the investment environment is complicated by U.S. restrictions on certain capital flows into China [3][24][25] - The U.S. tariff policies have led to concerns about **trade diversion**, where production capacity from high-tariff countries seeks alternative markets, prompting other nations to adopt protective measures [20] - Future key dates to monitor include the implementation of new tariffs on **April 2** and the results of the **232 investigation** concerning steel and aluminum, which may lead to further trade protection measures [21] - The complexity of implementing product-specific tariffs is highlighted, as it involves numerous countries with varying trade relationships, making a uniform approach more feasible [22] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding U.S. tariff policies and their broader implications for international trade, particularly concerning China.