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国泰君安期货:白银再创新高!除了宏观,还有哪些驱动值得关注?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 09:44
Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have shown strong momentum recently, with COMEX silver futures breaking through $60 per ounce for the first time, reaching around $62, while the Shanghai silver futures also surpassed high resistance levels [2][8]. Group 1: Macro Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is at 87.6%, according to the latest CME "FedWatch" [2][8]. - Despite some internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding rate cuts, market expectations remain strong, particularly with the potential new Fed Chair, Hasset, indicating ample room for significant rate reductions [2][8]. Group 2: Global Supply Constraints - Major silver-producing countries, such as Mexico and Peru, have seen a decrease in output this year, coupled with a lack of growth in silver recycling, leading to an overall supply shortage [2][8]. - Global silver inventories are rapidly depleting, with major exchanges reporting low stock levels [2][8]. Group 3: Industrial and Investment Demand Growth - The photovoltaic industry is rapidly increasing its silver usage, altering the traditional demand structure for silver [10]. - Significant demand growth has also been observed in the electric vehicle and AI computing server sectors this year [10]. - According to the Silver Institute, global total investment demand for silver (including bullion and ETFs) is projected to reach 1.334 billion ounces (approximately 414,000 tons) by 2025, marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase and accounting for 37% of total global silver demand [10]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The COMEX silver futures have recently broken through the resistance level around $54, leading to an upward shift in silver price expectations [10]. - Market sentiment is optimistic regarding the potential for further price increases [10].