Unchanged Modest upside Largely unchanged Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research 4Q25 Results January 28, 2026 11:06 PM GMT Tesla Inc | North America 4Q25 Earnings Reaction Reaction to earnings Our Takes: | M | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Update | | January 28, 2026 11:06 PM GMT | | | | | | Tesla Inc North America | | | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC | | | | | | Andrew S Percoco Equity Ana ...

January 21, 2026 06:55 AM GMT Tesla Inc | North America 4Q25 Preview: Bring on the Bots We see a particularly wide dispersion in financial KPIs into the 4Q print and for 2026. We believe the stock reaction will depend on the incrementality of updates around scaling robotaxi/Cybercab, launching Unsupervised FSD, Optimus Gen 3, and AI5 on the earnings call. Important financial KPIs and where we stand vs. consensus ( Exhibit 1 ). Outside of the numbers, here's what we're tracking through earnings. | M January ...

Summary of Tesla Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc (TSLA) - **Industry**: Automotive and Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: $1,618,293 million as of December 12, 2025 - **Current Stock Price**: $458.96 - **Price Target**: $425.00 Key Points Industry Dynamics - The automotive industry is experiencing an AI-driven inflection point, with Tesla expanding its lead in autonomous vehicle technology [1][5][15] - Tesla's robotaxi fleet is a significant focus, with plans to scale operations in Austin and San Francisco while prioritizing passenger safety [4][10] Robotaxi Development - Recent videos confirmed Tesla's robotaxi vehicles operating in Austin without a safety monitor, aligning with the company's goal to remove the monitor by year-end 2025 [3][8] - Three catalysts for scaling the robotaxi fleet include: 1. Opening the robotaxi service to the public without a safety monitor [3] 2. Improvement in safety metrics as miles driven increase without the monitor [3] 3. Start of production for the Cybercab, targeted for April 2026 [3] Fleet Expansion Projections - Tesla aims to increase its robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles on the road in 2026, up from an estimated 50-150 currently [4] - By the end of 2035, Tesla expects to have 1 million robotaxis operating across multiple cities [4] Cost Advantages - Tesla has a clear cost advantage due to vertical integration across its technology stack, including vehicle design, custom silicon, and software [10] - The Cybercab is designed specifically for robotaxi operations, which will further reduce costs and accelerate adoption [10][11] Safety and Regulatory Challenges - The ability to successfully remove the safety monitor while improving safety metrics is crucial for validating Tesla's robotaxi strategy [10] - Regulatory hurdles may limit the scaling of operations, particularly concerning the camera-only approach [10] Financial Projections - Expected EPS for fiscal years: - 2025: $1.66 - 2026: $1.98 - 2027: $2.69 [6] - Cost per mile for Tesla's robotaxi model projected to be $0.59 by 2028 [11] Risks and Considerations - Upside risks include increased FSD attach rates, successful robotaxi rollout, and new model introductions [21] - Downside risks involve execution challenges, regulatory issues, and competition from legacy OEMs and tech companies [21] Conclusion - Tesla is positioned to lead the autonomous vehicle market with its innovative robotaxi strategy and significant cost advantages, although it must navigate safety and regulatory challenges to achieve its ambitious growth targets [1][10][15]

Summary of Tesla Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc (TSLA) - **Industry**: Autos & Shared Mobility - **Market Cap**: $1,627,284 million as of October 29, 2025 - **Current Share Price**: $461.51 - **Price Target**: $410.00 [4][9] Key Points Discussed Shareholder Meeting and Compensation Package - The upcoming shareholder meeting on November 6, 2025, is deemed crucial for Tesla's future, particularly regarding Elon Musk's $1 trillion long-term compensation package [1][3] - There is a possibility that the compensation package may not pass, which could lead to significant implications for the company [1][6] Potential Outcomes if Compensation Package Fails 1. **Vote of No Confidence**: A failure to pass the compensation package may signal a lack of confidence in Musk's leadership [6] 2. **Leadership Concerns**: Musk may express concerns about leading Tesla into dual-purpose robotics and AGI without a significant say in the company's future [6] 3. **Share Price Impact**: An immediate sell-off of shares could occur, potentially exceeding 10%, affecting the company's strategic outlook [6] 4. **Key Man Risk**: Questions regarding succession and key man risk may arise, impacting investor confidence [6] 5. **Recruitment Challenges**: The ability to attract top talent in AI, manufacturing, and robotics could be jeopardized if Musk's leadership is questioned [6] Financial Projections - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: $2.41 - 2025 Estimate: $1.58 - 2026 Estimate: $2.61 - 2027 Estimate: $4.38 [4] - **Bear Case Share Price Projections**: Could come into play if the compensation package does not pass [6] Valuation Methodology - The price target of $410 is based on several components: 1. Core Tesla Auto business valued at $75/share 2. Network Services valued at $157/share 3. Tesla Mobility at $90/share 4. Energy segment at $70/share 5. Third-party supplier role at $17/share [9] Risks Identified - **Upside Risks**: Include service revenue disclosures, increased FSD attach rates, and successful new model introductions [12] - **Downside Risks**: Include execution risks, competition from legacy OEMs and Chinese players, and potential dilution [12] Additional Insights - The industry view for Tesla is currently rated as "In-Line" [4] - The bull case for Tesla's stock remains at $800, indicating a strong potential upside despite current uncertainties [2] This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of Tesla's recent conference call, highlighting the potential implications of the upcoming shareholder meeting and the financial outlook for the company.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) - **Industry**: Autos & Shared Mobility Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Car Culture Shift**: There is a notable decline in interest among younger generations towards cars, as evidenced by a 67% drop in attendance at the North American Auto Show from its peak in 2003, which had 838,000 attendees, to 275,000 attendees in the current year [4][5][5] 2. **Talent Acquisition Challenges**: As the automotive industry transitions towards AI-driven vehicles, legacy automakers face challenges in attracting top talent due to competitive offers from tech firms, which can reach multi-hundred-million-dollar contracts [1][4][5] 3. **Government Involvement**: The U.S. government is increasingly involved in the automotive sector, particularly in securing critical materials and rare earths, as seen in a recent partnership with MP Materials, which includes a 10-year price floor for NdPr and a 15% ownership stake [4][5][5] 4. **Tesla's Unique Approach**: Tesla continues to focus on a camera-only approach for its robotaxi fleet, which contrasts with the sensor fusion methods (camera, radar, LiDAR) used by competitors. This strategy is seen as a way to accelerate learning and improvement in autonomous driving technology [5][7][7] 5. **AI Day Anticipation**: The company is expected to host an 'AI Day' soon, primarily to attract talent in the competitive AI and robotics landscape [4][5][5] Financial Metrics and Projections 1. **Stock Rating**: Morgan Stanley rates Tesla as "Overweight" with a price target of $410.00, while the stock closed at $319.41 on July 17, 2025 [2][2][2] 2. **Market Capitalization**: Tesla's current market cap is approximately $1,124,643 million [2][2][2] 3. **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates**: EPS projections are as follows: - FY 2024: $2.41 - FY 2025: $1.58 (estimated) - FY 2026: $2.88 (estimated) - FY 2027: $4.46 (estimated) [2][2][2] Additional Important Insights 1. **Long-term Valuation Components**: The price target of $410 is derived from various components, including $75/share for the core auto business, $160 for network services, $90 for Tesla Mobility, $67 for energy, and $17 for third-party supply [10][10][10] 2. **Risks Identified**: Potential risks include increased competition from legacy OEMs and tech companies, execution risks related to factory ramp-ups, and geopolitical risks, particularly concerning China [13][13][13] 3. **Cultural Shift in Engineering Inspiration**: The decline in car culture raises concerns about future inspiration for engineers, as fewer young people are motivated by automobiles compared to previous generations [4][4][4] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting Tesla's strategic positioning, market challenges, and financial outlook.

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tesla Inc, with an industry view of "In-Line" [4][67]. Core Insights - The survey results indicate that 85% of respondents believe Elon Musk's political activities negatively impact Tesla's business fundamentals [6]. - A significant 59% of respondents expect Tesla's FY25 deliveries to decline year-over-year, contrasting sharply with previous bullish sentiments [6]. - Despite the negative outlook, investor sentiment is relatively mixed regarding Tesla's stock performance by year-end, with 45% expecting the stock to rise and 36% expecting it to fall [6]. Summary by Sections Investor Survey Results - The survey collected 245 responses, revealing that 40% of investors view Musk's political activities as insignificant, while 3% see them as positive [3][6]. - Expectations for Tesla's auto delivery growth in 2025 show that 38% anticipate a decline of 10% or less year-over-year, while only 4% expect growth of more than 10% [8]. Valuation - Tesla's current valuation stands at 19x FY30 PE and approximately 10x EV/EBITDA for FY30, indicating a favorable risk-reward profile [6]. - The price target for Tesla is set at $430, with the stock closing at $230.58 on March 11, 2025 [4][6]. Market Sentiment - The report highlights a stark contrast in sentiment compared to earlier bullish outlooks, with a notable shift in expectations regarding Tesla's growth trajectory [6]. - The survey results suggest a cautious approach among investors, reflecting concerns over delivery forecasts and external factors impacting the company's performance [6].