01 为什么有色金属值得关注？ 为什么会有这种说法? 这背后，其实藏着一条清晰的大宗商品轮动密码——经济周期的脉搏，决定了哪类资产该"上场主演"。 我们先来看过去两年的主线：黄金为何一骑绝尘？ 回顾2024年至2025年：我们买的是"防御"。 全球经济正处于"增长放缓+货币政策转向"的关键阶段。美联储在高通胀压力下维持高利率，但经济数 据逐步走弱，市场对衰退的担忧升温。与此同时，地缘冲突频发，央行购金潮持续——世界多国央行连 续创纪录增持黄金储备。 但市场风向并非一成不变。进入2026年，一种观点开始被更多投资者关注：如果说2024-2025年是黄金 的主场，那么2026年，市场的目光或将转向有色金属。 这一说法并非空谈，截至昨日收盘，开年以来13个交易日，中证申万有色金属指数（指数代码： 000819）就上涨了16.69%，涨幅超过同期的科创50指数。（wind，截至20260121，指数表现不代表基 金业绩，也不预示未来表现） 过去2024年和2025年，无疑堪称"黄金大年"。COMEX黄金在2024年上涨20.17%，2025年涨幅进一步扩 大至55.51%。 而谁能代表经济增长？ 这就不得不提到有色金 ...

Group 1 - The report identifies that the stock-bond seesaw effect is more common than both stocks and bonds being strong or weak simultaneously, with a higher probability of returning to the seesaw state after periods of dual strength or weakness [3][8]. - Growth expectations drive the stock-bond seesaw, while liquidity expectations can terminate it. Weak growth expectations lead to weak stocks and strong bonds, while strong growth expectations can result in strong stocks and weak bonds [3][8]. - A four-quadrant framework based on growth and interest rate expectations can be constructed to illustrate the relative relationship between stocks and bonds, showing how these expectations influence market dynamics [3][8]. Group 2 - The report suggests that when the stock-bond seesaw is present, there are strong price signals within equity sectors, allowing for effective industry strategies to be constructed [3][8]. - Current liquidity expectations are stable, indicating a foundation for a slow bull market, and the report continues to recommend a dynamic all-weather strategy under the seesaw market conditions [3][8]. - Historical data shows that fast bull markets are typically accompanied by rising equity volatility, while the current market exhibits stable equity volatility, supporting the slow bull market outlook [3][8]. Group 3 - The report outlines various scenarios following the stock-bond seesaw, including transitions from strong stocks and weak bonds to dual strength, and from weak stocks and strong bonds to dual weakness [21][37]. - The transition from strong stocks and weak bonds to weak stocks and strong bonds is often accompanied by a decline in growth expectations, while the reverse transition typically requires an increase in growth expectations [26][45]. - The report emphasizes that the core factors determining market direction after the seesaw are liquidity expectations and growth expectations, which can lead to different outcomes based on their movements [36][45].

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced a collective decline, indicating a subtle shift in market sentiment as investors express concerns over earnings quality and policy outlook [1][3] - The earnings season, which was expected to stabilize the market, has instead triggered increased volatility [1] Company Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.46%, S&P 500 decreased by 0.30%, and Nasdaq dropped by 0.38% [3] - UnitedHealth Group's earnings forecast fell short of market expectations, leading to a 7.5% drop in its stock price, significantly impacting the Dow [3] - Boeing reported a narrower loss but failed to gain investor confidence, resulting in a 4.4% decline [3] - Merck's stock fell by 1.7% due to the extended pause on HPV vaccine exports to China [3] - UPS shares plummeted by 10.6% after the company refrained from providing full-year guidance, raising concerns about the impact of escalating trade tensions on its business [3] Sector Impact - The consumer goods sector was also affected, with Procter & Gamble's stock down by 0.3% as the market reacted unfavorably to its plans to raise some product prices [4] - The transportation index dropped by 2.3%, marking its largest single-day decline in two months, reflecting a rapid decline in confidence within the transportation and logistics sectors [3] Upcoming Focus - The market's attention will shift to upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies such as Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, which have the potential to influence overall market direction [4] - Despite the potential for strong earnings from these tech giants, broader market caution may persist due to uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policy, trade dynamics, and global demand recovery [4] Market Sentiment - Short-term adjustments may signal a preliminary change in market direction, as investors reassess whether previous bullish trends may have masked underlying overheating concerns [4]

Core Viewpoint - The White House economic advisor, Hassett, stated that the 1.8% growth forecast provided by the Congressional Budget Office is considered very conservative [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - Economic Forecast - The Congressional Budget Office's growth forecast of 1.8% is viewed as conservative by the White House economic advisor [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Tesla Inc, with an industry view of "In-Line" [4][67]. Core Insights - The survey results indicate that 85% of respondents believe Elon Musk's political activities negatively impact Tesla's business fundamentals [6]. - A significant 59% of respondents expect Tesla's FY25 deliveries to decline year-over-year, contrasting sharply with previous bullish sentiments [6]. - Despite the negative outlook, investor sentiment is relatively mixed regarding Tesla's stock performance by year-end, with 45% expecting the stock to rise and 36% expecting it to fall [6]. Summary by Sections Investor Survey Results - The survey collected 245 responses, revealing that 40% of investors view Musk's political activities as insignificant, while 3% see them as positive [3][6]. - Expectations for Tesla's auto delivery growth in 2025 show that 38% anticipate a decline of 10% or less year-over-year, while only 4% expect growth of more than 10% [8]. Valuation - Tesla's current valuation stands at 19x FY30 PE and approximately 10x EV/EBITDA for FY30, indicating a favorable risk-reward profile [6]. - The price target for Tesla is set at $430, with the stock closing at $230.58 on March 11, 2025 [4][6]. Market Sentiment - The report highlights a stark contrast in sentiment compared to earlier bullish outlooks, with a notable shift in expectations regarding Tesla's growth trajectory [6]. - The survey results suggest a cautious approach among investors, reflecting concerns over delivery forecasts and external factors impacting the company's performance [6].