美国经济在第三季度的增长表现略好于初步估计，出口走强以及库存对增长的拖累减轻，为经济扩张提供了 重要支撑。 从分项来看，作为美国经济主要增长引擎的消费者支出在第三季度增长3.5%。其中，服务类支出增速创三年 来最快，商品支出也较上一季度有所加快。企业投资增长3.2%，主要受计算机设备支出持续增长带动；为人 工智能提供基础设施的数据中心投资更是攀升至历史新高。 由于过去一年贸易和库存波动对整体GDP造成一定干扰，经济学家更加关注"私人购买者最终销售指标"这一更 能反映真实需求的指标。该指标在第三季度增长2.9%，与前一季度持平，显示美国内需依旧稳健。 数据还显示，在总统特朗普推出大范围关税政策后，企业在年初为抢在关税生效前集中进口商品，随后逐步 放缓进口节奏。尽管贸易政策反复波动，消费者和企业支出依然保持韧性，对经济形成支撑。 在经济增长强劲、就业市场相对稳定、且通胀水平仍高于目标的背景下，市场普遍预计美联储官员将在下周 的政策会议上维持利率不变。 与此同时，周四公布的另一项数据显示，美国初请失业救济人数仍处于低位，显示劳动力市场保持稳健。 GDP报告还指出，美联储偏好的通胀指标，剔除食品和能源价格的个人消费支 ...

January 21, 2026 07:52 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific Asia EM Equity Strategy: 2026 Outlook Update – A Robust Approach for an Uncertain World Multipolar World risks are rising again. We continue to recommend tight market-risk positions with a slight preference for Japan vs. EM in 2026. Stock selection in the form of our GEM, APxJ, China, Japan and Thematic Focus Lists could help generate Alpha in a world of continued uncertainty. | Downloaded by Neil.Wang@troweprice.com Not for redistribution w ...

iShares Global Consumer Discretionary ETF (RXI US) – Investment PropositioniShares Global Consumer Discretionary ETF (RXI) delivers diversified exposure to companies whose revenues depend on discretionary spending, including retailers, apparel, autos, consumer services, online commerce, and select durable goods. The strategy captures both traditional brands and digital platforms, yielding a growth-cyclical profile with sensitivity to labor markets, wage trends, household balance sheets, credit availability, ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US Economics** sector, focusing on the **3Q GDP** performance and its components, particularly the impact of **AI spending** and trade dynamics on economic growth. Core Insights and Arguments - **Real GDP Growth**: The real GDP rose by **4.3% quarter-over-quarter annualized rate** in 3Q, surpassing both the internal estimate of **3.0%** and the consensus estimate of **3.3%** [1][21] - **Consumption Contribution**: Consumption increased by **3.5%**, contributing approximately one-third of the GDP upside, with goods spending up **3.1%** and services spending up **3.7%** [1][5] - **Net Exports**: Net exports contributed **1.6 percentage points** to GDP growth, with exports rising by **8.8%** and imports falling by **4.7%** [1][4] - **AI Spending**: AI-related expenditures accounted for nearly all the increase in capital expenditures, contributing **0.2 percentage points** to real GDP growth, although this was offset by imports of AI-related capital goods [1][8] - **Inflation Metrics**: Core PCE prices rose by **2.9%**, aligning with expectations, while headline PCE was at **2.8%** [1][4][7] Additional Important Insights - **Personal Income Trends**: Real disposable personal income saw a minimal increase of **0.05%**, indicating a slowdown compared to the first half of the year, with the saving rate dropping from **5.0%** in 2Q to **4.2%** in 3Q [1][6] - **Software Spending Fluctuations**: The contribution of software spending to GDP growth was affected by significant price swings, with real spending reported at **19%** in 1Q, **27%** in 2Q, and only **3%** in 3Q [1][9] - **Residential Investment Decline**: Real residential investment fell by **5.1%** in 3Q, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline [1][19] - **Trade Dynamics**: The trade sector showed strength, particularly in exports of aircraft, computers, and business services, which surged significantly [1][20] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted a robust economic performance in 3Q driven by strong consumption and trade, while also noting the complexities introduced by AI spending and inflation dynamics. The data suggests potential challenges ahead, particularly in personal income growth and residential investment trends.

Core Insights - U.S. consumer spending increased by 0.6% in August, surpassing expectations and indicating economic resilience as households engaged in leisure activities [4][6] - The economy has retained momentum from the previous quarter, supported by low layoffs and strong business demand for equipment, suggesting limited likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] - Job growth has stagnated due to trade policy uncertainty and immigration restrictions, impacting the labor market [3] Consumer Spending Details - Consumer spending, which constitutes over two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.6% in August following a 0.5% increase in July, exceeding the forecast of 0.5% [4][6] - Spending on services, including transportation, dining, and recreation, increased by 0.5%, while goods outlays surged by 0.8% [5][6] - High-income households are driving consumption, supported by a robust stock market and elevated home prices, with household wealth reaching a record $176.3 trillion in Q2 [7] Economic Indicators - The report indicates stronger income growth in 2024 and some months of the current year, attributed to rising equities and housing prices, benefiting higher-income households [8]

Summary of MSCI China 2Q25 Earnings Review Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **MSCI China** and **A-shares** performance during the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) - It highlights the earnings results of various sectors within the Chinese equity market Key Findings MSCI China Performance - **Earnings Results**: MSCI China reported earnings in line with consensus forecasts, with a weighted surprise of **+2.7%** and a miss by number of companies of **-2.7%** [2][26] - **Comparison to 1Q25**: The results showed a similar trend to 1Q25, which had a miss of **-3.8%** by number of companies and a weighted surprise of **+3.1%** [2][26] A-Shares Performance - **Earnings Results**: A-shares missed consensus forecasts by number of companies by **-13.8%**, but were in line by weighted surprise at **+0.2%** [3][26] - **Comparison to 1Q25**: This represents a softening compared to 1Q25, which had a miss of **-4.8%** by number of companies and a weighted surprise of **+3.3%** [3][26] Revenue Performance - **MSCI China and A-shares**: Both indices missed consensus revenue estimates by number of companies but posted in-line results by weighted surprise [4][44] - **Cost Control**: The better revenue trends were attributed to improved cost-control measures and self-help strategies [4] Sector Performance - **Strong Performers**: - **Communication Services** and **Financials** led with solid earnings beats [5][26] - **Pharma & Biotech** and **Materials** saw strong returns with earnings upgrades, with gains above **20%** [6] - **Weak Performers**: - **Onshore Real Estate** and **Utilities** posted net earnings misses by both weighted surprise and number of companies [5] Market Returns - **Overall Returns**: MSCI China delivered a **13%** return from end-June to September 9, while MSCI China A onshore gained **15%** [6][18] - **Sector Returns**: Notable sectors with returns above **20%** included Consumer Staples Retailing, Pharma & Biotech, and Semiconductors [15][18] Earnings Revisions - **Upward Revisions**: Sectors such as **Pharma & Biotech**, **Materials**, and **Tech** saw upward revisions to 2025 consensus EPS estimates [6][16] - **Downward Revisions**: The **Semiconductors** sector experienced downward earnings revisions [6][16] Notable Contributors - **Key Contributors to Earnings Beats**: - **Communication Services**: Mango Excellent Media and Giant Network [28] - **Consumer Discretionary**: PDD, XPENG, and TCOM [28] - **Financials**: BOC and CCB [28] - **Key Drags on Earnings**: - **Consumer Staples**: China Feihe, China Mengniu, and Yanghe Brewery [28] - **Energy**: ShaanXi Coal and Yankuang Energy [28] Revenue Surprises - **Aggregate Revenue Miss**: Reported revenue missed consensus by number of companies by **-12.5%**, an improvement from **-16.6%** in 1Q25 [45] - **Sector-Level Revenue Beats**: Only **Communication Services** and **Real Estate** posted beats by number of companies [45] Conclusion - The earnings season for 2Q25 showed mixed results across sectors, with some outperforming expectations while others fell short. The overall market demonstrated resilience with positive returns, but challenges remain in specific sectors, particularly in revenue generation.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The reports focus on the performance of hedge funds and mutual funds, analyzing $8 trillion of equity positions at the start of Q3 2025 [3][4] - Hedge funds have returned 8% YTD, while large-cap mutual funds have also returned 8% YTD, with 39% of large-cap mutual funds outperforming their benchmarks [3][5] Core Insights - Hedge funds and mutual funds have both navigated beta and alpha headwinds to generate solid YTD returns [5] - Mutual funds have cut cash allocations to near-record lows, while hedge fund net leverage remains near its 5-year average [3][11] - Health Care and Industrials are the most overweight sectors for both fund types, while Financials have seen increased exposure from both groups [3][17][19] - Mutual funds have reduced their exposure to the "Magnificent 7" stocks, increasing their underweights from 723 basis points in Q1 to 819 basis points [3][22] - Hedge funds have increased their exposure to the Magnificent 7, with the weight in their long portfolio rising from 11.8% in Q1 to 12.8% [3][22] Notable Stock Movements - COF has seen the largest increase in popularity among fund managers based on net changes in shares owned [3] - Seven "shared favorites" this quarter include APP, CRH, MA, SCHW, SPOT, V, and VRT, which have returned 20% YTD compared to 9% for the S&P 500 [3][22] Sector Positioning - Both hedge funds and mutual funds are underweight in Technology, with mutual funds carrying the largest underweight in Info Tech on record [17][18] - Financials dominate the list of stocks with the largest increase in hedge fund popularity, with FI, NU, and SSB joining COF and BRO among the most popular mutual fund increases [19] Performance Metrics - The Hedge Fund VIP basket has returned 13% YTD, while a basket of Concentrated Shorts has returned 8% YTD after a surge of more than 60% in recent months [5] - Mutual funds have seen a decline in cash balances to 1.4% of assets, nearly a record low [11][14] Economic Indicators - The median S&P 500 stock has a short interest of 2.3% of float, ranking in the 96th percentile relative to the last 5 years [11] - The S&P 500 is forecasted to have an EPS of $246 for 2024, with a year-over-year growth of 10% [29] Conclusion - The analysis indicates a cautious but optimistic outlook for hedge funds and mutual funds, with strategic positioning in sectors like Health Care and Industrials while navigating challenges in the Technology sector [3][17][19]

Summary of 2Q25 Pre-announcements for MSCI China and A-shares Industry Overview - The report focuses on the performance of the **A-share** and **MSCI China** markets for the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) - A total of **1,528 A-share companies** (~30% by number of companies, ~25% by market cap) released pre-announcements, indicating a significant improvement from previous quarters [2][5][14] Key Findings A-share Market - The net negative alert ratio for A-shares in 2Q25 was **-4.8%**, similar to **-4.6%** in 2Q24 and significantly better than **-18.8%** in 4Q24 [8][17] - By market cap, the net positive alert ratio reached **+4.7%**, up from **+2.8%** in 2Q24 and **-0.7%** in 4Q24 [8][17] - Large-cap companies showed resilience with a net negative alert of **-1.4%**, while small-cap companies improved to **-7.4%** from **-31.1%** in 4Q24 [8][17] - Financial Services, Materials, and Technology Hardware sectors recorded the highest net positive alerts, while Consumer Services, Real Estate, and Software sectors had the largest net negative alerts [8][17] MSCI China Market - The MSCI China universe reported a net positive alert ratio of **+6.8%**, improving from **+1.4%** in 2Q24 and **+2.2%** in 4Q24 [9][30] - **69 stocks** announced positive alerts compared to **31 companies** with negative alerts [33] - Financials and Materials sectors had the highest net positive alerts, while Real Estate and Utilities sectors had the most net negative alerts [33][34] Earnings Estimates Revisions - As of July 18, 2025, **240 MSCI China constituents** (~47% by number of companies) had earnings estimates revised by more than **1%** [2][36] - A net **11%** of MSCI China constituents saw 2025 consensus earnings estimates revised downward [13][37] - By index weight, a net **0%** of MSCI China saw 2025 consensus earnings estimates raised during the assessment period [37] Stock Recommendations - Based on the analysis, **nine stocks** were identified as favorable investments, while **six stocks** were deemed to face challenges going into the 2Q25 results season [12][59] - The positively screened stocks include companies from sectors such as Materials, Pharmaceuticals, and Automotive, with specific tickers and price targets provided [59] Additional Insights - The report highlights the uneven recovery across different market capitalizations, with large-cap companies performing better than mid and small-cap companies [17] - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism for the upcoming earnings season, with a focus on sectors that have shown resilience and potential for growth [47][51] This summary encapsulates the key points from the 2Q25 pre-announcements for MSCI China and A-shares, providing insights into market performance, sector dynamics, and stock recommendations.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modest net change in the fiscal balance due to the reconciliation package, with an estimated $275 billion addition to the deficit next year, suggesting a cautious investment outlook [3][4]. Core Insights - The reconciliation bill, titled the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," is expected to create a fiscal expansion of roughly $4 trillion relative to current law, but the net impact on corporate earnings is estimated to be about 5% for S&P 500 in 2026, diminishing in subsequent years [3][4]. - The corporate provisions in the bill will primarily shift the timing of tax payments rather than permanently lower tax rates, impacting cash flows more than GAAP net income [4][9]. - The potential changes to business expensing will significantly affect capex-intensive companies and those with high interest expenses, particularly in the small-cap sector [9][32]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact - The reconciliation package is expected to have a modest direct impact on S&P 500 earnings and cash flows, with a collective effect of approximately 5% on earnings in 2026 [4][5]. - The bill's provisions, including capex and R&D expensing, interest deductibility, and foreign income treatment, will contribute to GDP growth, further lifting S&P 500 earnings by about 1% [4][31]. Market Reactions - Few sectors have shown a strong correlation with fiscal policy expectations, although renewable energy stocks have reacted to legislative developments [2][20]. - The report highlights that stocks with elevated interest expenses and low effective tax rates may face scrutiny as Congress negotiates the legislative package [30][43]. Sector-Specific Insights - The legislation's impact on interest deductibility will have a larger effect on small-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks, with 34% of Russell 2000 companies having interest expenses exceeding 30% of EBIT [9][14]. - Consumer-facing stocks may benefit from the fiscal package, with expected boosts to consumer spending adding about 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in 2026 [31][32]. Valuation Considerations - The reconciliation bill could influence equity valuations if it leads to upward pressure on interest rates, with historical data indicating stocks typically react poorly to rapid increases in yields [34][42]. - A potential increase in the 10-year Treasury yield toward 5% could catalyze additional equity volatility, impacting investor sentiment [34][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on China equity, with a raised 12-month index target for MSCI China and CSI300 to 78 and 4,400, implying potential returns of 7% and 15% respectively [1][31]. Core Insights - Despite trade frictions with the US, China financial assets have shown resilience, with the Rmb appreciating against the USD by 1.7% in the past month and Chinese government bonds reaching all-time highs [1][2]. - The report highlights a targeted monetary easing package from the PBoC, NFRA, and CSRC, which includes 23 measures aimed at supporting the real economy and financial markets [6][8]. - The effective US tariff rate on Chinese imports is expected to decrease from around 160% to approximately 60%, which has led to an upward revision of the 2025 EPS growth estimate for MSCI China from 4% to 6% [1][10][13]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - China equity (MSCI China) has recovered 12% year-to-date and almost fully recovered from a 13% drawdown post-Liberation Day [1][3]. - Southbound flows to HK-listed equities have reached US$80 billion year-to-date, three times larger than the same period last year [19][20]. Monetary Policy - The recent monetary easing measures are seen as a positive surprise, aimed at improving liquidity and reducing funding costs, with a focus on demand-side support [6][8]. - Specific measures include a 50 basis point RRR cut providing approximately Rmb1 trillion in liquidity and targeted assistance for SMEs [8][10]. Economic Indicators - Hard data remains robust, with property sales in primary markets rising 26% year-over-year during the Labor Day holidays, particularly in tier-1 and tier-2 cities [10][11]. - However, soft data indicates signs of moderation, with declining trends in PMIs and cargo shipments [10][11]. Earnings Forecast - The report nudges up the 2025 EPS growth estimate for MSCI China to 6%, reflecting expectations of a lower effective US tariff rate and a stronger Rmb [10][13]. - The revised EPS integer forecast for 2026 remains 8% below the prevailing sell-side consensus [10]. Sector Focus - The report emphasizes a focus on sector and thematic alpha, particularly in domestic stimulus beneficiaries, select AI proxies, and local government spending beneficiaries [1][37]. - Banks and Real Estate have been upgraded to Overweight to enhance domestic exposure and sensitivity to policy easing [37][40].