Gold powering higher in 2026 is a bad sign for Bitcoin, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone. McGlone argues that the precious metal’s exceptional performance signals a shift toward defensive positioning that historically precedes weaker returns for riskier and volatile assets such as crypto. “Gold grabbing alpha in 2025 at the greatest pace since 1979 could signal market risk reversion in 2026. Never before has the store of value rallied at such magnitude,” he wrote on LinkedIn. ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that true investment opportunities lie outside of consensus, as demonstrated by significant returns from stocks like GDXU, which achieved a 500% return, and the importance of identifying these opportunities before the market does [3][5] - The company focuses on redefining company fundamentals, exemplified by transforming AppLovin from a "gaming advertising company" to an "AI advertising engine," resulting in a 129% return, and recognizing Palantir's AI positioning, which yielded a 46% return [3][6] - Investment is portrayed as a commitment to common sense and a cognitive journey, with a focus on identifying "invisible champions" that the market has not fully priced in for the uncertain year of 2026 [3][14] Group 1: Performance Highlights - Over the past year, the research team identified three categories of stocks based on their returns: - Explosive Alpha stocks with returns over 200%, such as OKLO (+543%) and GDXU (+500%), benefiting from nuclear energy revaluation and operational leverage in gold mining [6][7] - Industry trend analysis stocks with returns between 50%-150%, including Robinhood (+150%) and AppLovin (+129%), showcasing the ability to capture turning points in company fundamentals [6][7] - Forward-looking coverage and major player analysis stocks with returns between -10%-50%, such as Palantir (+46%) and Tesla (+50%), achieved through in-depth analysis of core assets [6][7] Group 2: Logic and Research Methodology - The core of the research capability lies in constructing a self-reinforcing chain of reasoning, as illustrated by the identification of power limits in data centers leading to investments in OKLO and NNE [8][10] - The article highlights the importance of challenging existing labels, as seen with AppLovin, which was redefined as an undervalued AI real-time bidding model, leading to significant price appreciation [10][11] - The research also emphasizes the transformation of silver from a safe-haven asset to a strategic asset in the AI era, which is crucial for its excess returns [12][13] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company aims to continue identifying opportunities in less crowded markets, demonstrating the ability to find "invisible champions" globally, as evidenced by insights into regional monopolies and emerging trends in sectors like space economy [13][14] - The article concludes that the value of research lies in discovering non-obvious opportunities before they become mainstream, advocating for a focus on cognitive differences rather than price chasing [14]

Group 1 - The overall allocation strategy emphasizes a focus on Alpha over Beta under high valuation constraints, supported by the current funding structure rather than directional judgments. With market valuations at a high percentile (P≥90%), the cost-effectiveness of relying on valuation expansion for returns has significantly decreased, leading to a preference for structural opportunities and active strategies to achieve excess returns [3][24]. - The current economic cycle is transitioning from the recovery phase to a potential overheating stage, with technology trading remaining a key theme. As the cycle progresses, the value of cyclical allocations is expected to gradually emerge alongside inflation expectations and profit improvements, indicating a shift from broad market recovery to structural differentiation [4]. - The funding environment is favorable, characterized by a "more money, fewer options" scenario that supports structural opportunities. Although short-term speculative money has retreated, uninvested funds are expected to fill the gap, with institutional investors likely to dominate new capital inflows, focusing on low-level acquisitions rather than high-level engagements, providing a supportive backdrop for convertible bonds [5][41]. Group 2 - The recommended strategy involves focusing on high Yield to Maturity (YTM) convertible bonds in a volatile market while also investing in technology-related convertible bonds with upward elasticity, particularly those with strong redemption expectations, to avoid missing opportunities during upward market phases. The overall goal is to achieve a combination of "earning in volatility and not missing out on upward trends" [6][72]. - The report indicates that the convertible bond market is currently at a historical high valuation, suggesting that future performance may be limited. The analysis of different valuation percentiles shows that the likelihood of positive returns decreases as valuations rise, with the highest quartile (Q1) showing only a 50.7% probability of positive returns [10][19][21]. - The report highlights that the public fund's allocation to convertible bonds has increased significantly, while other entities have decreased their holdings. This trend indicates a potential liquidity risk due to the high concentration of holdings by a single entity, suggesting that more liquid convertible bonds may be safer investments [39][41].

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Week in Binance Alpha: DOYR's 5,891% Surge Defies Market-Wide FearDOYR explodes 5,891% in seven days! Talus Network and BeatSwap launched Dec. 11! Alpha market cap hits $15.001B! Fear & Greed Index stuck at 29 as Bitcoin dominance holds 58.9%!Let's examine this week's Alpha developments.🧵1/7 ...

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Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of actionable intelligence over formal education in investment decision-making [1] - It argues that stock price is not a primary consideration when buying a stock, as it reflects real-time sentiment rather than intrinsic value [1] - The focus should be on management, financials, sector performance, global macroeconomic factors, portfolio mix, and risk/reward analysis [1] Investment Strategy - Investors should analyze financials over the past three years to understand the company's fundamentals [1] - Setting targets, limits, and using stop-loss orders are crucial for protecting capital [1] - Continuous review of investments is necessary, especially when there are fundamental changes [1] Learning and Adaptation - The article encourages extensive reading and learning to gain an edge in the market [1] - It suggests that successful investing requires a proactive approach to market conditions and sentiment [1] - The notion that if investing were easy, everyone would succeed highlights the need for diligence and strategy [1]

This is what Kevin Olirri just said on Fox Business Live. >> The data tells you something very stark. It says all you have to own to capture 90% of all of the crypto markets alpha or pricing volatility is simply Bitcoin and Ethereum.You don't need anything else. >> But it also says the maturity of the market is looking at the numbers because the big money is about to come in. So, if you were just in Bitcoin and Ethereum over the last 8 [music] weeks, you've done so much better than own the poo poo coins.>> ...