Economic Indicators - The US economy is showing "resilience" according to Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who does not see the need for an interest rate cut this month [1] - US MBA mortgage applications increased by 28.5% in the week ending January 9, with purchase mortgage applications up 15.9% and refinancing applications up 40.1% [1] - US November retail sales rose by 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 0.5% [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for November increased by 3.0% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations of 2.7% [2] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is down 0.75%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 0.46%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down 1.22% [5] - Weakness in chip makers and the Magnificent Seven technology stocks is negatively impacting the broader market [4][16] - Energy producers are experiencing gains, with WTI crude oil reaching a 2.5-month high [17] Company-Specific News - Wells Fargo reported Q4 net interest income of $12.33 billion, below the consensus estimate of $12.43 billion, leading to a decline of more than 5% in its stock [19] - Trip.com ADRs fell over 15% following an investigation by Chinese regulators for alleged antitrust conduct [18] - TG Therapeutics shares rose over 9% after reporting preliminary full-year 2025 revenue of $616 million, exceeding the consensus of $606.1 million [20]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed up +0.64%, reaching a 1-week high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved a new all-time high with a +1.23% increase [1][2] - The Nasdaq 100 Index also saw a rise of +0.77% [1] Sector Performance - Optimism regarding AI spending positively impacted chipmakers and data storage companies [2] - Energy companies experienced a rally following President Trump's comments about US control over Venezuela's oil reserves [2] - Mining stocks surged due to increased demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks in South America, with gold rising over 2% and silver soaring more than 7% [2] Economic Indicators - The 10-year T-note yield fell by -3 basis points to 4.16%, supporting stock prices [3] - The December ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell -0.3 to 47.9, indicating the steepest contraction in 14 months [3] Federal Reserve Commentary - Dovish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson supported equity and bond prices, suggesting inflation moderation and stable growth [4] - Conversely, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari's comments were slightly hawkish, indicating US interest rates may be "close to neutral" for the economy [4] European Market Influence - Strength in European stocks, with the Euro Stoxx 50 reaching a new record high, provided support to US equity markets [5] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to be released include the December S&P manufacturing PMI, ADP employment change, ISM services index, JOLTS job openings, and nonfarm payrolls, among others, which are expected to show various trends in employment and productivity [6]

Economic Indicators - The December ISM manufacturing index is expected to rise by +0.2 to 48.4, while the S&P manufacturing PMI is anticipated to remain unchanged at 52.9 [1] - The December ADP employment change is projected to increase by +48,000, and the ISM services index is expected to decline by -0.3 to 52.3 [1] - JOLTS job openings are forecasted to climb by +9,000 to 7.679 million, and factory orders for October are expected to decrease by -1.1% month-over-month [1] - Q3 nonfarm productivity is anticipated to increase by +4.7%, with unit labor costs rising by +0.3% [1] - Initial unemployment claims are expected to rise by +12,000 to 211,000, while December nonfarm payrolls are projected to increase by +59,000 [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to decrease by -0.1 to 4.5%, with average hourly earnings expected to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.6% year-over-year [1] - October housing starts are expected to increase by +1.4% month-over-month to 1.325 million, and building permits are projected to rise by +1.1% month-over-month to 1.350 million [1] - The University of Michigan's January consumer sentiment index is expected to climb by 0.6 points to 53.5 [1] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is up +0.54%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up +0.99%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up +0.78% [4] - European stocks are providing support to US equity markets, with the Euro Stoxx 50 reaching a new record high, up +0.85% [5] - Chipmakers and data storage companies are experiencing gains, with ARM Holdings and KLA Corp up more than +5% [9] - Energy producers are rallying, with Valero Energy up more than +9% following comments about US access to Venezuelan oil reserves [10] - Mining stocks are rising, with gold prices up more than +2% and silver up more than +5% [11] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing, with Bitcoin up more than +3% at a 4-week high [12] Company-Specific Developments - GH Research Plc is up more than +34% after the FDA lifted the clinical hold on its drug application for treatment-resistant depression [13] - QXO Inc is up more than +7% following a $1.2 billion investment agreement with Apollo Global and other investors [13] - Mobileye Global is up more than +5% after an upgrade from Barclays [14] - Estee Lauder is up more than +3% after a strong buy upgrade from Raymond James [14] - Uber Technologies is down more than -1% after a downgrade to sell from Melius Research [15] - Pentair Plc is down more than -1% after a downgrade to sell from TD Cowen [15]

Core Viewpoint - The AI capital expenditure (capex) is experiencing significant growth, presenting substantial investment opportunities, particularly in companies that provide the infrastructure for AI rather than the hyperscalers themselves [1][4]. Group 1: AI Capex Growth - AI capex spending is accelerating, indicating that the infrastructure build-out for AI has not yet peaked [1]. - The hyperscalers are engaged in a "winner-takes-all" competition, leading to unprecedented capital expenditures on infrastructure [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The "picks and shovels" investment strategy focuses on companies that supply the necessary infrastructure for AI, rather than investing directly in the hyperscalers [2][4]. - Companies involved in the AI infrastructure are expected to benefit from a sustained flow of cash due to the hyperscalers' spending [3]. Group 3: Beneficiary Sectors - Chipmakers, such as NVIDIA and Broadcom, are key beneficiaries by providing AI processing power [6]. - Energy producers, including NextEra Energy and Constellation Energy, are essential for powering AI data centers [6]. - Commodities and materials suppliers, particularly those providing copper and wiring, are critical for connecting data centers [6]. - Infrastructure builders, like Vertiv Holdings and EMCOR Group, are vital for constructing data centers and cooling systems [6].

Core Insights - Oaktree Capital Management's latest 13F filing reveals a focus on deep-value cyclicals, energy companies with strong free cash flow, and special-situation equities with asymmetric payoff potential [1][2] Group 1: Top Holdings - TORM PLC (TRMD) is Oaktree's largest holding with 40,581,120 shares valued at $834.6 million, indicating strong conviction in the tanker cycle and a favorable supply/demand imbalance in the product tanker market [3] - Expand Energy Corp (CHK) holds 5,062,363 shares worth $537.8 million, reflecting Oaktree's long-term confidence in energy, particularly natural gas, despite minimal activity this quarter [4] - Garrett Motion (GTX) has 31,894,816 shares valued at $434.4 million, representing a classic special situation investment as the company continues to reduce leverage and grow cash flow post-restructuring [5] - AngloGold Ashanti (AU) consists of 4,185,261 shares worth $294.3 million, fitting Oaktree's strategy with improving margins and optionality in an inflationary environment [6] - Viper Energy (VNOM) has 6,285,062 shares valued at $240.2 million, showcasing a strong thematic bet on energy with predictable royalty cash flows [7] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Oaktree's portfolio heavily emphasizes deep-value cyclicals, particularly in tankers, energy producers, and commodity-linked businesses, all characterized by significant cash flow yield and depressed valuations [8] - The firm maintains a consistent philosophy of embracing dislocation, favoring investments in situations where pessimism is already priced in, such as restructuring plays and underfollowed foreign cyclicals [9] - Energy remains the highest-conviction theme for Oaktree, with multiple top holdings indicating an underestimation of cash generation durability across the sector [10] - Position changes reflect a blend of patience and opportunism, with Oaktree trimming stocks that rallied while increasing positions in VNOM and selected common stocks, aligning with a strategy of controlled aggression [11]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed up by +0.54%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index by +0.61%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index by +0.78% on Friday [1] - Stock indexes reached 2-week highs, driven by strength in semiconductor stocks and a rally in energy producers following a rise in WTI crude prices [2] Trading Activity - Trading activity was lighter than usual due to a technical outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which disrupted trading since Thursday evening [3] - Market activity was subdued with only half a day of trading following the Thanksgiving holiday [3] Economic Sentiment - Optimism regarding a potential Fed rate cut has positively influenced stock performance, with bond yields falling amid weak economic news and dovish comments from the Fed [4] - The probability of a Fed rate cut at the upcoming December 9-10 FOMC meeting increased to 83% from 30% the previous week [4][5] Corporate Earnings - The Q3 corporate earnings season is nearing completion, with 475 of the 500 S&P companies having reported results [6] - 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, marking the best quarter since 2021, with Q3 earnings rising by +14.6%, significantly above the expected +7.2% year-over-year [6]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index is up by +0.39%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.61%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by +0.46% [1] - Stock indexes are reaching 2-week highs, supported by strength in semiconductor stocks and climbing energy producers, with WTI crude up more than 1% to a 1-week high [2] Trading Activity - Trading activity was lighter than normal due to a technical outage at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which disrupted trading since Thursday evening [3] - Market activity was expected to be subdued with only half a day of trading following the Thanksgiving holiday [3] Economic Outlook - Optimism about a potential Fed rate cut has boosted stocks, with market sentiment improving as bond yields have fallen amid weak US economic news and dovish Fed comments [4] - The chance of a Fed rate cut at the December 9-10 FOMC meeting has increased to 84% from 30% last week [4][5] Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season is concluding, with 475 of the 500 S&P companies having reported results [6] - 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, marking the best quarter since 2021, with Q3 earnings rising by +14.6%, significantly above expectations of +7.2% year-over-year [6]

Government and Economic Policy - A group of eight Senate Democrats voted with Republicans to advance a bill to reopen the government, which includes full-year funding for some departments and pay for furloughed workers [1] - The White House indicated that the monthly October payrolls report and consumer price index are unlikely to be released due to the government shutdown, affecting market expectations [7] Mortgage and Housing Market - US MBA mortgage applications increased by 0.6% for the week ending November 7, with the purchase mortgage sub-index rising by 5.8% and the refinancing sub-index declining by 3.4% [2] Corporate Earnings - Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies showed a 14.6% increase, significantly surpassing expectations of 7.2%, with 82% of reporting companies exceeding forecasts, marking the best quarter since 2021 [8] Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes mostly rose, with the S&P 500 reaching a one-week high and the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieving a new all-time high, driven by anticipation of the government reopening [5] - Semiconductor stocks, particularly Advanced Micro Devices, saw significant gains, with AMD jumping by 9% due to projected sales growth [4][12] - Airline stocks also rose, with United Airlines up more than 5% following a ratings upgrade, and Delta Air Lines up more than 4% amid positive travel demand forecasts [13] Sector Performance - The Magnificent Seven technology stocks experienced weakness, impacting overall market gains, with notable declines in Tesla and Meta Platforms [14] - Energy producers faced declines after WTI crude oil prices fell over 4% to a three-week low, affecting major companies like Halliburton and Chevron [15] Notable Company Movements - On Holding's stock surged over 17% after raising its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin forecast, while Bill Holdings Inc. rose over 11% amid pressure from an activist investor [16] - Clearwater Analytics Holdings increased by more than 7% after expressing interest in a potential sale [17]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed down -0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index down -0.37%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index down -0.31% on Wednesday [1] - December E-mini S&P futures fell -0.27%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures fell -0.34% [1] Economic Indicators - The 10-year T-note yield rose +4 basis points to a 2.5-week high of 4.15% due to hawkish Fed comments and a significant increase in US August new home sales [2] - US MBA mortgage applications rose +0.6% in the week ended September 19, with the purchase mortgage sub-index up +0.3% and the refinancing mortgage sub-index up +0.8% [4] - US August new home sales unexpectedly jumped +20.5% month-over-month to a 3.5-year high of 800,000, surpassing expectations of a decline [4] Corporate Earnings and Market Sentiment - Rising corporate earnings expectations are seen as a bullish backdrop for stocks, with over 22% of S&P 500 companies providing guidance for Q3 earnings that are expected to beat analysts' expectations, the highest in a year [5] - S&P companies are expected to post +6.9% earnings growth in Q3, an increase from +6.7% as of the end of May [5] Sector Performance - Chip makers showed strength, supporting the stock market, while a +2% increase in WTI crude oil helped push energy producers higher [3] - AI optimism was bolstered by Alibaba's announcement to increase its AI spending beyond an initial $50 billion target, positively impacting AI-infrastructure stocks [3] Upcoming Economic Data - Weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to increase by +2,000 to 233,000 [6] - August core capital goods new orders are expected to slip -0.1% month-over-month [6] - August existing home sales are expected to fall -1.3% month-over-month to 3.96 million [6] - August personal spending is expected to rise by +0.5% month-over-month, and personal income by +0.3% month-over-month [6] - The August core PCE price index is expected to rise by +0.2% month-over-month and +2.9% year-over-year [6]

Core Insights - Iridium Risk Services / Navacord is sponsoring the Schachter Catch the Energy Conference to connect investors with opportunities in Canada's energy sector [2][4] - The conference will feature direct interactions between investors and executives from 45 participating companies, covering various segments of the energy industry [4][5] - The event is positioned as a significant opportunity for investors to gain insights during the early stages of a new bull market in the energy sector [5] Company Overview - Iridium Risk Services / Navacord aims to provide better service to the energy industry by focusing on risk management rather than just insurance advice [3] - The company has expanded its expertise beyond the energy sector while maintaining a strong focus on risk management [3] - The firm emphasizes high standards and client satisfaction as core values, positioning itself as a disruptor in the insurance brokerage community [3] Conference Details - The Schachter Catch the Energy Conference will take place on October 18th at Mount Royal University in Calgary [1] - The conference will allow investors to meet company executives and ask questions in a moderated format [4] - Major sponsors include the TMX group, highlighting the conference's significance in the energy investment landscape [4]