什么是"预测市场公司"?为何如此火爆 "预测市场公司"的定义是什么?它们本质上是把现实世界事件做成可交易的二元合约的交易平台：合约 通常以"是/否"结算(例如某事件是否发生)，价格可被解读为市场对概率的定价;在美国语境里，这类合 约往往被包装为受监管的衍生品"事件合约"。 毋庸置疑的是，Robinhood等拥有庞大投资者群体的重要渠道引入相关合约交易、以及ICE、CME等传 统巨头以投资或新平台形式入场，显著抬升整个预测行业的可信度与用户触达。 预测市场以"事件合约"形式切入体育，在部分州即使没有合法体育博彩也能吸引交易量，因此成为 Kalshi等平台迄今的重要增量来源，同时也引发州层面的合规争议与关注度。更加重磅的是，一些华尔 街投资机构与专业交易资金开始把它用于押注/对冲宏观与公司事件概率(如美联储货币政策、大型并购 的成败)，因为合约结构二元、表达更"纯粹"。 来自华尔街知名金融机构Citizens Financial Group Inc.的分析师团队在一份研报中表示，类似Polymarket 这样的预测市场公司们(Prediction markets companies)到2030年这些公司整体营收可 ...

Like most derivatives, futures are used primarily for two purposes: hedging and speculation, offering three key advantages:CME Group: For more in-depth futures education, CME Group provides accredited courses that can deepen your futures knowledge to a more institutional level.Futures contracts are agreements to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price at a specific time in the future. Unlike most derivatives, these contracts are standardized and traded on exchanges, making them highly liquid and effic ...

CME Group has launched Spot-Quoted futures for XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL), expanding its lineup of crypto derivatives designed to trade closer to real-time market prices. The new contracts mirror the structure of CME’s existing Spot-Quoted Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) futures. Unlike traditional futures, which often trade at a premium or discount due to financing costs, Spot-Quoted contracts track the spot price directly. Financing adjustments are handled separately at settlement. "We've seen strong de ...

US government, SEC Crypto. Photo by BeInCrypto The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is quietly laying the plumbing for a market structure where US Treasuries and cryptocurrencies could eventually live side-by-side. On December 12, the CFTC approved an expansion of cross-margining for US Treasuries. How CFTC's New Order Impacts Crypto This change allows certain customers, not just clearing members, to offset margin requirements between Treasury futures cleared at CME Group. CME Group is one of ...

Market Performance - U.S. stocks experienced modest gains on Friday, with the Dow industrials, Nasdaq composite, and S&P 500 rising by 0.4% or less in morning trading [1] - Technology companies, particularly Alphabet and chip makers like Micron Technology and Intel, saw larger gains [1] Nasdaq Performance - Despite the gains, the Nasdaq composite is on track to record its first monthly loss since March, down approximately 2.1% for the month due to concerns about an AI bubble [2] CME Group Outage - CME Group's derivatives markets reopened at 8:30 a.m. ET after a disruption caused by cooling problems at a key data center, which had prevented trading in futures and options [3] Global Market Trends - Global markets showed little change, with the Stoxx Europe 600 inching higher, Japan's Nikkei 225 increasing by 0.2%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declining by 0.3% [4] Federal Reserve Expectations - Markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut benchmark interest rates again in December, following indications of a cooling labor market [4] Currency and Bitcoin Trends - The dollar remained steady against a basket of currencies after a previous decline, while Bitcoin rose above $92,000, recovering from a drop below $81,000 [5]

A product born in crypto's most fevered era is being quietly rebuilt for the US stock market trading 24-7, with no brokers and no closing bell. The perpetual swap, or perp, is a derivative that lets traders take long or short positions on a digital asset's price, without ever owning it. Now developers are extending that model to traditional assets and benchmarks. Bloomberg's Muyao Shen reports on "Bloomberg Crypto". ...

Core Insights - XRP's first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) has surpassed $100 million in assets under management (AUM) shortly after its launch, indicating strong institutional interest in regulated digital asset exposure [1][2] - The fund, launched in September, provides direct spot access to XRP and reflects a significant shift towards integrating digital assets into mainstream finance [2] - Regulatory delays from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have stalled several pending spot XRP ETF applications, impacting the approval process for new products [3] Institutional Activity - Despite regulatory challenges, institutional interest in XRP is growing, as evidenced by the CME Group's introduction of XRP options following a successful uptake of XRP futures contracts [4] - The CME Group reported over 567,000 XRP futures contracts traded, amounting to approximately $26.9 billion in notional volume, equivalent to about 9 billion XRP tokens [4] - Client demand for new options products has increased as traders look to hedge against volatility and diversify their exposure [5]

Core Insights - Institutional investors are increasingly engaging with CME Group's regulated crypto derivatives markets, leading to record levels of open interest in futures and options for ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Since October 10, open interest in CME's crypto futures and options has surged by 27%, attributed to a migration from offshore markets following recent liquidations [1] - On Tuesday, open interest in ETH futures reached a record 48,600 contracts, while SOL and XRP futures also achieved all-time highs of 20,700 and 10,100 contracts, respectively [2] - Options open interest hit $9 billion, indicating a growing preference for CME's regulated products over offshore alternatives [2] Group 2: Participation and Volume - The top 10 days for open interest occurred in October, reflecting strong conviction and increased participation in the regulated crypto derivatives market [3] - In the third quarter, CME reported combined crypto futures and options volume exceeding $900 billion, with average daily open interest at $31.3 billion [4] - Over 1,000 large open interest holders were active during this period, suggesting a broadening usage of these products beyond a niche market [4] Group 3: Product Performance - The growth in interest is not limited to bitcoin or ether; CME's solana and XRP futures have also gained significant traction [5] - By September, solana futures reached $2.1 billion in open interest, while XRP futures hit $1.4 billion [5]

Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to last longer than previous instances, with prediction markets indicating a potential duration of 40 days, surpassing the 35-day record from 2019 [2] - Traders on Polymarket assign a 96% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the upcoming October 29 FOMC meeting, followed by an 85% chance of another cut in December [3] Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve remains insulated from the government shutdown, allowing it to continue holding policy meetings and adjusting rates [3] Economic Data Impact - The shutdown has delayed key economic reports such as jobs, inflation, and GDP, which may force the Fed to make decisions based on incomplete data [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin is trading above $108,000, experiencing a 1.8% decline as traders unwind gains amid macro uncertainty [6] - Ethereum is retesting the $4,100 resistance, with treasury firms SharpLink and BitMine purchasing a combined $278 million in ETH over the past week [6] Gold and Silver Market - Gold fell 5.5% to $4,121.50 and silver dropped 7.5% to $48.37, marking significant one-day declines as traders took profits after a rally [7] Japanese Market - Japan's Nikkei 225 rose after exports grew 4.2% year-on-year in September, indicating stronger shipments to Asia despite weaker U.S. demand [7]

Core Insights - CME Group and FTSE Russell have announced a 12-year extension of their exclusive licensing agreement for futures, options on futures, and OTC-cleared products based on FTSE Russell indexes [1][2] - The partnership aims to provide global market participants with effective tools for managing equity index exposure, highlighting the growth in trading volumes and liquidity in FTSE Russell-linked products [2][5] CME Group Overview - CME Group is recognized as the world's leading derivatives marketplace, facilitating trading across various asset classes including interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, cryptocurrencies, energy, agricultural products, and metals [4] - The company has seen significant trading activity, with over 573 million FTSE Russell index-related futures and options on futures contracts traded since the previous licensing agreement in 2015, and an average daily volume of 306,000 contracts year-to-date [2][4] FTSE Russell Overview - FTSE Russell is a global index leader, with approximately $18.1 trillion benchmarked to its indexes, serving institutional and retail investors worldwide [5][6] - The organization emphasizes a transparent, rules-based methodology for index design and management, adhering to high industry standards and focusing on innovation and customer partnerships [6][7]