来源：市场资讯 据彭博社，纳斯达克公司计划推出一种允许对主要股票指数进行 "是或否" 投注的期权合约，成为最新 一家进军快速增长的预测市场的交易所运营商。根据提交给美国证券交易委员会的一项规则变更提案， 该公司希望在其旗舰产品纳斯达克 100 指数和纳斯达克 100 微型指数上上市 "二元期权"。文件显示， 纳斯达克合约的定价将在 1 美分至 1 美元之间，反映市场对某一结果实现可能性的看法。这将是纳斯达 克首次涉足镜像预测市场的产品。 （来源：吴说） ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 吴说获悉，据 @defioasis 调查，在某预测市场的 ZachXBT 内幕调查事件中，有超过 3,630 个地址押注 了"Axiom"，其中 56.2% 的地址获得正向盈利；然而在 Top10 大额盈利地址中，有 8 个地址可被视为是 内幕地址，合计获利超过 120 万美元，特点是交易的市场次数极少甚至只有唯一一个；有 3 个地址获得 超过 10 万美元盈利和 47 个地址盈利 1 万 – 10 万美元，同时亦有 2 个地址亏损超过 10 万美元和 50 个 地址亏损 1 万 – 10 万美元。 ...

比特币正陷入一场前所未有的身份危机。这个全球最大的加密货币已从峰值暴跌超40%，但真正的问题不在价格本身，而在于支撑其价值的核心叙事正在同 时瓦解。当"数字黄金"输给真黄金、支付功能输给稳定币、投机热度输给预测市场时，比特币被迫面对一个从未需要回答的问题：它究竟为何存在？ 讽刺的是，这场危机发生在比特币获得一切想要的东西之后。华盛顿的监管态度从未如此友好，机构采用从未如此深入，华尔街从未如此认可。但这些胜利 并未阻止市值蒸发超1万亿美元。常规的反弹剧本已经失效——抄底买家消失了，通常会推动反弹的力量如今正在反向运作。 据彭博社周六报道，与股票或大宗商品不同，比特币缺乏基本面支撑，其价值几乎完全依赖信念——依赖那些说服新买家入场的叙事。而这些叙事正在动 摇。在特朗普引发的涨势中买入的散户投资者如今深度套牢。更关键的是，比特币现在必须与更多替代品竞争，而这些替代品"更容易理解，也更容易向受 托人、客户和董事会解释"。 Acadian Asset Management投资组合经理Owen Lamont表示： 比特币的核心故事是"价格上涨"，但我们现在没有这个了，现在有的是"价格下跌"，这不是一个好故事。 支付战场的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Dutch gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit has determined that Polymarket is providing gambling services to Dutch users without the necessary local license, violating the Gambling Act, and has ordered the company to cease such operations [1] Regulatory Actions - The regulator stated that Dutch users can register, deposit, and place bets on the platform, which constitutes a "game of chance" that requires a license [1] - If Polymarket fails to comply with the requirements, it may face fines of €420,000 per week, with a maximum potential fine of €840,000 [1] Company Position - Polymarket claims to operate as a prediction market rather than traditional gambling, but this argument has been rejected by the regulatory authority [1]

据报道，研究人员在美联储一篇新论文中对Kalshi预测市场数据表示赞赏，这对这家正逐步融入经济主 流的新兴平台而言，是一次重大的信任背书。研究人员发现，在关键经济数据预测方面，Kalshi市场的 表现可能优于传统衍生品与调查预测。美联储的安东尼・M・迪尔克斯、西北大学的贾里德・迪恩・卡 茨，以及美国国家经济研究局的乔纳森・赖特写道："我们的研究凸显了预测市场的潜力，它可作为衡 量市场预期、为货币政策决策提供参考的全新基准。"他们表示，在核心通胀与失业率数据上，Kalshi 与彭博一致预期表现相当；在整体通胀预测上则更胜一筹。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Asset management company Bitwise has submitted an application for a prediction market ETF that will track contracts related to the 2028 U.S. presidential election and the upcoming midterm elections for the House and Senate [1] Group 1 - Bitwise follows Roundhill in the prediction market ETF space, indicating growing interest in this investment vehicle [1] - The proposed product aims to provide exposure to prediction markets, which are gaining significance and scale [1] - Bitwise has launched a new platform called PredictionShares, focusing on offering exposure to prediction markets [1] Group 2 - Bitwise's Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, emphasizes the importance of providing clients with exposure to prediction markets due to their rapid growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - DraftKings is facing investor skepticism despite strong revenue growth, primarily due to a conservative growth forecast for 2026, which fell short of Wall Street expectations [1][6]. Financial Performance - DraftKings reported a 43% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4, reaching $2 billion, with net income of $136 million compared to a loss of $135 million in the same quarter last year [3][5]. - The company’s adjusted EBITDA surged 284% to $343 million, indicating significant profitability improvements [5]. Market Position and Customer Metrics - DraftKings operates in 26 states and Washington, D.C., reaching approximately half of the U.S. population [3]. - The average monthly unique paying customers remained stable at 4.8 million, while average revenue per customer increased by 43% to $139 [3]. Future Outlook - The company projects full-year revenue for 2026 to be between $6.5 billion and $6.9 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $700 million and $900 million, which is below Wall Street's expectation of $7.3 billion [6]. - CEO Jason Robins views the prediction market as a significant growth opportunity and plans to invest in enhancing customer experience and acquiring new customers [7].

Group 1: Robinhood - Robinhood's shares fell 8.20% to $71.51 after mixed fourth-quarter results, beating profit expectations but missing revenue [1] - Analysts maintain a Buy consensus with an average price target of $142, highlighting growth levers such as prediction markets and international expansion [1] Group 2: Bitmine Immersion Technologies - Shares increased by 1.81% to $20.85, influenced by ETH price sensitivity, with staked ETH expected to generate over $370 million in annualized rewards [2] - The Ark Invest transaction was valued at $4.2 million, with shares remaining volatile but up 201.88% over the past year [2] Group 3: Airbnb - Ark Invest reduced its stake by selling 259,652 shares of Airbnb across multiple funds following mixed fourth-quarter earnings, where revenues beat but EPS missed expectations [3] Group 4: Other Key Trades - Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings indicate Robinhood stock has a Value in the 19th percentile and Momentum in the 44th percentile [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is focusing on the regulation of prediction markets, which has been identified as a significant issue by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins during a Senate Banking Committee hearing [1] Group 1: Regulatory Focus - The SEC is collaborating with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to address the regulatory landscape surrounding prediction markets [1] - Chairman Atkins highlighted that prediction markets currently fall primarily under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, indicating potential overlap in regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC [1] - Both regulatory bodies will continue to coordinate their efforts to enhance oversight in this area [1]

Core Insights - Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have shown remarkable accuracy in forecasting economic data, comparable to professional economists [1][3][23] - A recent employment report revealed that professional economists predicted an increase of 68,000 jobs, while bettors on Kalshi anticipated 54,000, with the actual figure being 130,000, indicating significant deviations from both predictions [3][22][23] Group 1: Accuracy of Prediction Markets - Over five years, bettors on Kalshi have demonstrated an average prediction accuracy for economic indicators that rivals trained professionals [3][23] - Participants in prediction markets have been found to better predict Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and inflation rates compared to professionals [3][23][27] Group 2: Advantages of Bettors - Bettors have the advantage of choosing not to predict if they lack confidence, unlike professional forecasters who must provide estimates regardless of data clarity [6][26] - The incentive structure in prediction markets encourages bettors to make accurate predictions as they risk real money [8][29] Group 3: Growth and Trends in Prediction Markets - Daily betting volume on political and economic topics has surged to over $60 million, significantly exceeding earlier platforms [12][32] - Many high-frequency bettors are professionals in related fields, using prediction contracts to hedge their investments [12][32][33] Group 4: Limitations and Concerns - There is a concern that if retail bettors replace professional forecasters, it may complicate the work of information providers and reduce the availability of independent information sources [36] - The reliance on prediction markets could lead to a situation where individual bettors are at a disadvantage if they lack access to comprehensive analyses that professionals provide [36][37] Group 5: Future of Prediction Markets - Prediction markets may serve as valuable input variables for complex forecasting models used by institutions like the Federal Reserve [38] - The integration of artificial intelligence in forecasting could complement prediction markets, especially in areas involving human behavior and cultural factors [39][40]