Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that predicting market movements is largely ineffective, as evidenced by the experiences of many investors who struggle to achieve long-term returns despite their predictions [5][6][8]. Group 1: Market Prediction Challenges - Most investors engage in predicting market trends, yet few achieve satisfactory long-term performance, indicating a disconnect between prediction and actual investment success [5][12]. - Notable investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger advise against market predictions, suggesting that such efforts are futile [6][8]. - The complexity of market systems makes accurate predictions exceedingly difficult, as it requires understanding numerous economic, financial, and emotional variables [10]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - A significant majority of investors aim for short-term profits, which complicates the ability to earn quick returns, as many are competing for the same opportunities [12]. - When many investors focus on short-term gains, it becomes challenging to capitalize on market fluctuations, as these opportunities are quickly seized [12]. - The article suggests that refraining from market predictions and focusing on value investing can lead to more sustainable investment success [13].

（原标题：你能做到不预测市场吗？ | 猫猫看市） 在资本市场待久了，我发现一个有意思的现象，几乎没有几个人能做到不预测市场的波动，没多少人能 做到不预测市场的走势。 君不见，投资者们一旦聚会，大家说起自己对未来市场变动的看法，各种声音简直是滔滔不绝。 有人说我觉得下半年刺激政策更多，所以大盘必上四千点；有人说贸易战有影响，外资要撤出，港股要 跌；有人说某个产业有产业政策利好，有些龙头股票要涨。如此种种，不一而足。 如果你有足够的耐心，听完大家对市场的预测，这时候且慢总结，你得再问大家一个问题：你们的长期 业绩做得好吗？ 在绝大多数情况下，如果别人能真诚地回答你，那么你得到的答案会是否定的：股票市场太难做了，不 好赚钱；长期业绩走好太难了，不确定性太多，诸如此类。 现在，把上面的两个场景结合在一起，你就会明白我想表达的要点：几乎所有人都在努力预测市场的走 势，很少有人从市场里获得优秀的回报。把这两个问题放在一起，我们就会发现，预测市场好像没用！ 一点没错，预测市场真没啥用。不是我这么说，而是沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格这么说。 在2003年的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司年会上，芒格曾经说了一句话："你永远没法预测市场会怎么 ...

作者：Domer 翻译：MetaCat 排版：MetaCat 前现代预测市场 预测市场可能看起来很新，但对重要事件结果的押注在政治和其他领域已有悠久历史。 非正式的预测市场至少可以追溯到一千年前，它涉及无数事件，包括对军事战争结果的押注、对谁将成 为下一任国王的押注，以及对决定一个人是否能进入公务员队伍的中国科举考试结果的押注。 来源：市场资讯 转载来源：火讯财经 文章来源： MetaCat 更正式的预测市场至少可以追溯到五百年前，即16世纪初的意大利。当时，人们会通过市场预测下一任 教皇的继任人选，并在信件中引用赔率。第一部针对预测市场的正式"立法"出台于1591年，当时教皇格 里高利十四世（Gregory XIV）表示，任何对教皇秘密会议结果进行押注的人都将被逐出教会。 在英国，最早有记录的预测市场始于18世纪，出现在伦敦的各家咖啡馆里。 乔纳森咖啡馆（后来成为 伦敦证券交易所）从18世纪初就开始交易议会丑闻和首相更迭的消息。交易这些事件在精英阶层中变得 习以为常，赔率甚至会刊登在当时的报纸上。 第一位有记录的"巨鲸"人物就是在这种环境下诞生的，他就是英国国会议员查尔斯·詹姆斯·福克斯。至 少从1771年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new tax regulations under President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act will significantly impact the professional sports betting industry in the U.S., particularly affecting how professional gamblers can deduct their losses, which may lead them to seek alternative betting avenues like Robinhood's event contracts [1][2][6]. Group 1: Impact of New Tax Regulations - The OBBB Act allows professional gamblers to deduct only 90% of their betting losses, compared to the previous 100% deduction, which will increase their taxable income and tax obligations [1][6]. - This change is expected to drive professional gamblers to explore new jurisdictions or alternative betting methods, such as event contracts [7][12]. Group 2: Robinhood's Position and Offerings - Robinhood Markets has begun offering prediction markets through a partnership with Kalshi, allowing users to bet on various outcomes without the same tax burdens as traditional sports betting [8][9]. - Event contracts are regulated under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), allowing full deduction of losses against gains, which is advantageous for professional bettors [10][11]. - In the first six months of offering event contracts, Robinhood reported over one billion contracts traded, contributing to a 50% year-over-year revenue growth [14]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Analyst Outlook - Robinhood's revenue reached $927 million, marking the second-highest in its history, prompting analysts to raise their price targets for the stock [15]. - Current analyst ratings suggest a Moderate Buy for Robinhood, with price targets ranging from $110 to $125 [11][15].

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are showing a divergence in signals regarding the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with prediction markets indicating a higher likelihood of his removal compared to the rates market, which remains more stable and focused on economic fundamentals [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Signals - Prediction markets, particularly Polymarket, have seen increased betting odds on Powell being dismissed by 2025 following Trump's public demand for his resignation [1][3]. - In contrast, the rates market, particularly the federal funds futures market, has reduced its expectations for interest rate cuts, now predicting a decrease of 43 basis points by year-end, down from 67 basis points at the end of June [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Data Influence - Stronger-than-expected employment data has led the rates market to reassess the likelihood of significant rate cuts, indicating that economic resilience and inflation risks are influencing market sentiment [4]. - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's more moderate stance on the Federal Reserve has provided a stabilizing effect on the rates market, contrasting with Trump's more aggressive rhetoric [1][4]. Group 3: Divergence Analysis - The divergence between prediction markets and rates markets began in early July, with the rates market focusing more on economic signals rather than political noise [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that while prediction markets may react to political statements, the rates market prioritizes economic fundamentals and policy signals, indicating a more cautious approach among traders [3][4].

Core Insights - DraftKings is in negotiations to acquire Railbird, a regulated prediction market platform based in New York [1] - Railbird was founded in 2021 by former Point72 analyst Myers Safran and Edward Tian, and received approval from the CFTC in June 2025 to operate as a designated contract market [1] - Railbird's platform allows users to trade event contracts, enabling betting on real-world event outcomes across various sectors, including economic indicators, public policy decisions, weather patterns, entertainment trends, and sports results [1] Company Developments - DraftKings has previously applied for federal approval to operate a prediction market but withdrew the application months later [1] - In the sports betting sector, Flutter Entertainment's FanDuel has reportedly engaged in discussions with Kalshi, a well-known regulated exchange focused on trading future event outcomes [1] Investment Landscape - Railbird's investors include the CEO of SeatGeek and several venture capital firms, indicating strong backing and interest in the prediction market space [1] - The platform aims to cover all 50 states in the U.S., highlighting its ambition to expand its reach and user base [1]