ab Global Research 26 November 2025 China Economic Perspectives China by the Numbers (November 2025) Our guide to Chinese monthly data What the numbers are, what they mean and the outlook going forward. October growth slowed across the board Property activities deteriorated further in October, with floor space of sales and new starts declining more from the September and Q3 average levels. The YoY weakness of major FAI sectors extended further, including manufacturing (-7% YoY), infrastructure (- 12% YoY) a ...

Core Viewpoint - The three major economic regions of China—Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei—have achieved impressive foreign trade results in a complex international economic environment, leveraging their unique industrial endowments and regional characteristics to enhance national competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Regional Development Paths - The Yangtze River Delta relies on a strong industrial base, complete supporting facilities, and a vibrant private economy, leading in high-end manufacturing and technological innovation, forming a cluster advantage in high-tech products [1]. - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area capitalizes on its internationalized and market-oriented nature, utilizing Hong Kong's status as a global financial and trade center to enhance cross-border logistics and integrate resources, solidifying its position in the global supply chain [2]. - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region benefits from Beijing's strong radiating power and the advantages of free trade zones, promoting innovation and industrial collaboration among the three areas, with exports in automobiles and pharmaceuticals driving foreign trade growth [2]. Group 2: Challenges in Regional Cooperation - There are discrepancies in marketization, openness, and governance among the three regions, leading to challenges in unifying rules and standards, particularly in areas like commercial systems and data flow regulations [2][3]. - High-end factors such as talent, capital, and technology face "soft" barriers to free movement across regions, limiting the full realization of regional synergies [3]. - The absence of a reasonable cross-regional benefit compensation mechanism poses challenges in coordinating interests during regional collaboration, as industrial transfers can alter tax revenue and development opportunities [3]. - The need for optimizing supply chain layouts amidst global value chain restructuring requires a national strategic approach to avoid homogenized competition and ensure risk-sharing in supply chain optimization [3].

Group 1 - The core issue is that Shandong Langjin Technology Co., Ltd. was fined 8,000 yuan by the State Taxation Administration of Jinan for fabricating false tax basis [1] - Langjin Technology is a high-tech enterprise established in 2000, specializing in advanced variable frequency energy-saving core technology and refrigeration system control technology [1] - The company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market in June 2019, with a registered capital of 91.87345 million yuan and over 1,000 employees [1]

Core Insights - The financing matchmaking event is seen as a timely opportunity for technology enterprises in Huizhou, with a total credit limit of 107 million yuan provided to 30 companies [1][3]. Group 1: Event Overview - The financing matchmaking event was organized by various local financial and governmental institutions, including the Huizhou branch of the People's Bank of China and China Bank Huizhou branch [3]. - The event specifically targeted the financing challenges faced by technology enterprises, aiming to inject financial momentum into these companies [3]. Group 2: Company Support - Huizhou currently has 103 national high-tech enterprises and 59 technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises [3]. - The event facilitated the signing of financing cooperation agreements between China Bank Huizhou branch and representatives from technology companies, such as Qimao Precision Technology (Huizhou) Co., Ltd. [3]. Group 3: Call to Action - The Deputy Secretary of Huizhou County Committee urged financial institutions to innovate their financial products and services to better support technology enterprises [5]. - Technology enterprises were encouraged to actively engage with financial institutions and leverage the support policies to accelerate their high-quality development [5].

Core Insights - Foreign investment institutions are refocusing on the A-share market, particularly in the technology sector, as domestic economic recovery progresses [1] - In September, 23 companies attracted visits from 10 or more foreign institutions, primarily in high-tech fields, with 2024 R&D investment ratios exceeding 5% [1] Group 1: Foreign Investment Interest - Huichuan Technology topped the list with 176 overseas institution visits, followed by Estun and Shenzhen South Circuit with 58 and 54 visits respectively [3] - High R&D investment is a common characteristic among these companies, with Aobi Zhongguang leading at 36.2% R&D investment ratio for 2024 [3] Group 2: R&D Focus and Strategy - Foreign institutions are particularly interested in the R&D directions and technological advantages of these companies [3] - Huichuan Technology plans to invest 8%-10% of its revenue in R&D to maintain technological leadership, focusing on software, overseas market products, and humanoid robots [3] Group 3: Market Performance and Valuation - Among the 23 companies, 15 have a market capitalization exceeding 30 billion yuan, with Huichuan Technology leading at 226.3 billion yuan [4] - The average increase for these companies in September was nearly 12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by about 9 percentage points [4] - Foreign investors prefer a valuation model based on "price-to-sales ratio + technological leadership" for hard tech companies, indicating potential for valuation restructuring in this sector [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the **impact of China's overcapacity** on global manufacturing, particularly in the context of **high-tech goods** and the **automotive sector** [2][4][13]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Resilient Export Growth**: Despite US tariffs, China's export growth remains strong, driven by cost advantages and productivity improvements from AI and robotics [2][5][15]. - **Negative Impact on Foreign Producers**: The surge in Chinese auto exports has created challenges for foreign manufacturers, particularly in emerging markets (EMs) [2][26][34]. - **GDP Growth Implications**: An increase in Chinese exports that adds 1 percentage point (pp) to Chinese GDP could lower GDP growth in major economies by 0.1-0.3 pp, with more significant effects in Europe [2][45][54]. - **High-Tech Goods Competition**: China's recent export surge is largely in high-tech sectors, raising competitive pressures on developed market (DM) manufacturers [2][9][39]. - **Overcapacity Issues**: China's production capacity exceeds global demand in key sectors, suggesting that exports will remain the primary outlet for its products [2][17][25]. Additional Important Points - **Historical Context**: The first "China shock" post-WTO entry had significant effects on global trade, including both positive (lower inflation) and negative (headwinds to domestic manufacturing) outcomes [3][4]. - **Weak Domestic Demand**: China's domestic demand remains weak, which exacerbates overcapacity issues and increases reliance on exports [2][10][15]. - **Potential for Disinflation**: Increased Chinese supply could lead to disinflationary pressures in foreign economies, benefiting consumer spending and allowing for easier monetary policy [2][71][72]. - **Employment Effects**: The competition from Chinese exports has led to stagnation in auto manufacturing employment in major economies, despite healthy global demand [2][34][36]. - **Future Risks**: If China's export growth accelerates or if the composition of exports shifts towards high-value goods, the headwinds to global manufacturing could increase significantly [2][57][60]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates that China's overcapacity and export-driven growth strategy will likely create moderate headwinds for global manufacturing, particularly affecting developed markets. However, there may also be positive spillovers in terms of lower consumer prices and increased spending power in other sectors [2][71][72].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, particularly the impact of US tariffs on exports and the government's fiscal policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Momentum**: Growth momentum in China weakened in August, with export growth in USD terms declining from 7.2% year-on-year in July to 4.4% in August, indicating the negative impact of US tariffs is being felt [3][4][5] 2. **Revised GDP Forecasts**: The Q3 real GDP growth forecast has been raised to 3.5% quarter-on-quarter annualized and 4.8% year-on-year, up from previous estimates of 2.5% and 4.6% respectively, due to more resilient exports than anticipated [5][37] 3. **High-Tech Manufacturing Resilience**: Despite a modest slowdown, high-tech exports have shown steady growth, with expectations for real export growth to increase to 2% for 2026, up from 0% previously [3][10] 4. **Policy Easing Delayed**: Policymakers are withholding fiscal spending, as evidenced by strong government bond issuance and rising fiscal deposits, indicating a preference to delay easing measures until 2026 [4][19] 5. **Structural Trends in Exports**: Exports of high-tech products are expected to continue rising, with monthly exports of ships, semiconductors, and motor vehicles reaching US$35 billion by mid-2025 [9][10] 6. **Fiscal Policy Dynamics**: Approximately RMB 1 trillion in extra fiscal deposits suggests that the government has room to maneuver if economic conditions worsen [17][24] 7. **Contractionary Policies**: Recent contractionary policies, such as "anti-involution" efforts, have led to rising PPI inflation in upstream sectors, but without demand stimulus, this could lead to production cuts [20][25] 8. **Local Government Financial Stress**: Financial stress on local governments has increased, with significant drops in fixed asset investment in provinces with high debt pressure [24][27] 9. **Consumer Demand and Policy Tools**: The government is exploring ways to boost consumption, but effective tools may take time to develop, indicating a gradual approach to stimulating domestic demand [33][29] Additional Important Insights - **Tariff Impact on Exports**: Exports to the US have dropped by around 30% year-on-year, but non-US markets have offset this decline, highlighting the resilience of certain sectors [8][6] - **Long-Term Economic Strategy**: The Chinese government remains focused on innovation and high-tech manufacturing as part of its long-term economic strategy, which is expected to continue in the upcoming Five-Year Plan [31][36] - **House Price Trends**: The report anticipates further declines in house prices, which may negatively impact household balance sheets and consumer sentiment over the next few years [30][29] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy amidst ongoing trade tensions and policy adjustments.

Core Viewpoint - In the first quarter of this year, tax reductions and refunds supporting technological innovation and manufacturing reached 424.1 billion yuan, accelerating high-quality development in these sectors [3][4]. Tax Reduction and Refunds - The total tax reductions and refunds for supporting technology innovation and manufacturing in Q1 amounted to 424.1 billion yuan, reflecting the effectiveness of structural tax reduction policies [3][4]. - The sales revenue of high-tech industries increased by 13.9% year-on-year in the first four months, significantly outpacing the overall national growth rate [3][5]. Policy Measures - Recent tax policies include a 100% pre-tax deduction for R&D expenses, with a further increase to 120% for integrated circuits and industrial mother machines [4][6]. - Value-added tax exemptions are provided for technology transfer and related services, while advanced manufacturing enterprises benefit from a 5% input tax credit, increased to 15% for specific sectors [4][6]. Manufacturing Sector Performance - Manufacturing sales revenue grew by 4.7% year-on-year in the first four months, with notable increases in equipment manufacturing (9.4%), digital product manufacturing (12.6%), and high-tech manufacturing (12.2%) [5][6]. - Advanced manufacturing sectors, such as computer and smart device manufacturing, saw sales revenue growth of 23.8% and 15.7%, respectively, indicating a robust innovation-driven development [5][6]. Systematic Policy Framework - The release of two policy guidelines in 2024 aims to provide a systematic approach to tax incentives for technology innovation and manufacturing, covering various aspects of these sectors [6][7]. - The guidelines include 31 tax incentive measures for manufacturing, emphasizing the importance of tax benefits in fostering high-quality development and innovation [6][7]. Tax Administration and Compliance - The tax authorities are enhancing services to ensure that tax benefits reach the intended recipients, focusing on compliance and preventing fraudulent claims [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the role of youth in driving technological innovation and addressing national strategic needs through initiatives like youth commando teams and innovation workstations [1][6][7] - Over 300 youth commando teams have been cultivated in the technology innovation sector, and nearly 200 youth innovation workstations have been established at municipal and district levels, focusing on key areas such as quantum computing, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and high-end equipment manufacturing [1][6][7] - The youth commando teams have achieved significant milestones, including over 600 patents and more than 50 international awards, demonstrating their capability in achieving key technology autonomy in seven strategic fields [3][6] Group 2 - The youth innovation workstations have been instrumental in incubating new production capacities, exemplified by the first low-temperature multi-effect seawater desalination project in China, which saves over ten million yuan in material costs [4][5] - The establishment of youth innovation workstations has evolved into a comprehensive ecosystem for youth scientific and technological talent, serving as incubators, demonstration benchmarks, and radiation sources for innovation [5][6] - The "one team, one station" model has proven effective in maintaining the dynamic nature of youth innovation activities while fostering a sustainable innovation ecosystem [7]

Group 1 - The core focus of the training program is to promote high-quality development of private enterprises in Fujian by exploring new paths for growth and maintaining the spirit of "Love to Win" [3][12] - The program includes case studies on competitive strategy and family business succession, emphasizing the importance of balancing tradition and innovation in family enterprises [5][6] - The training features immersive learning experiences at leading tech companies like Alibaba and innovative firms in Hangzhou, highlighting the integration of technology and traditional industries [8][9][10] Group 2 - The training program is a year-long initiative organized by the Fujian Provincial United Front Work Department, Fujian Provincial Federation of Industry and Commerce, and Xiamen University, targeting young entrepreneurs with an average age of 36 [12] - Participants include representatives from listed companies, top private enterprises in Fujian, and national high-tech enterprises, indicating a diverse and high-caliber group [12] - The curriculum combines classic courses, real-world teaching, roundtable discussions, and red education to deepen entrepreneurs' understanding of global competition and industry trends [12]