February 15, 2026 05:35 PM GMT Meituan | Asia Pacific FY25 Profit Warning What's new: Meituan announced a profit warning for FY25: (1) IFRS NP loss range of Rmb23.3-24.3bn, (2) CLC OP loss of Rmb6.8-7bn due to increasing investments to combat intense competition. The company expects the loss-making trend to continue into 1Q26. Our view: The guidance is largely in-line with consensus for IFRS NP of Rmb-23bn, while the CLC OP loss was slightly better than expected vs MSe/cons at Rmb-8bn for FY25. This implies ...

Baidu Inc. 4Q25 Preview Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Baidu Inc (BIDU.O) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: US$51.804 billion - **Current Stock Price**: US$149.53 (as of January 16, 2026) - **Price Target**: Increased from US$130.00 to US$150.00 Key Financial Metrics - **Core Revenue**: Expected at Rmb26.1 billion, a decline of 5.6% YoY [1][14] - **Operating Profit (OP)**: Expected at Rmb2.8 billion, down 40.5% YoY [1][4] - **Online Marketing Revenue**: Anticipated decline of 16% YoY [2][11] - **Non-Marketing Revenue**: Expected growth of 13.3% YoY [14] - **AI Cloud Revenue**: Projected to grow 5% YoY, significantly slower than 21% in 3Q25 [3][11] Core Insights - **Advertising Revenue**: Online ads revenue is expected to decline by 16%, an improvement from a 19% decline in 3Q25. AI-generated content is becoming more prevalent, with over 70% of mobile search result pages now featuring it, although monetization remains limited [2][11]. - **AI Cloud Performance**: The slower growth in AI cloud revenue is attributed to a high base from the previous year and slower growth in personal cloud services, which account for approximately 30% of AI cloud revenue [3][11]. - **Operational Efficiency**: Non-GAAP operating profit is expected to improve quarter-over-quarter due to efficiency enhancements and depreciation gains, with further savings anticipated from organizational restructuring [4][11]. Upcoming Events - **Dividend Announcement**: Potential announcement alongside 4Q results and renewal/expansion of the buyback program (previously US$5 billion) [5][11]. - **Kunlunxin Listing**: Anticipated Hong Kong listing within six months [5][11]. - **Robotaxi Value Unlocking**: Apollo Go has received fully driverless licenses in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, indicating progress in autonomous vehicle initiatives [5][11]. Valuation and Market Position - **Valuation Methodology**: The new price target of US$150 is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, including a DCF model with an 11% discount rate and a 3% terminal growth rate [16][22]. - **Comparison with Peers**: Trading at a 2026 estimated P/E of 18x, compared to 17-18x for Tencent and Alibaba [6][11]. Risks and Considerations - **Market Environment**: A weak macroeconomic environment and risks associated with AI disruption may hinder the recovery of search ads [22][40]. - **AI Monetization**: The monetization of AI technologies is still in its early stages and has not yet shown significant financial impact [27][40]. Summary of Financial Estimates - **Total Revenue**: Expected to decline to Rmb128.959 billion in 2025, with a slight recovery projected in subsequent years [19][21]. - **Net Income**: Anticipated to be Rmb6.136 billion in 2025, with a gradual increase in the following years [19][21]. - **Operating Margins**: Expected to improve slightly but remain under pressure due to declining revenues [19][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings preview for Baidu Inc., highlighting the company's financial expectations, operational strategies, and market outlook.

Tencent Holdings Ltd. 4Q25 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings Ltd. - **Industry**: Internet and Other Services in Asia Pacific - **Date of Call**: January 18, 2026 Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue increase of 12% YoY, with non-IFRS operating profit (OP) up 14% [1][9] - **Value-Added Services (VAS)**: Revenue expected to rise by 12.0% YoY, with online games growing by 16.7% [2][9] - **Marketing Services**: Anticipated growth of 18.5% YoY, driven by AI ad-tech upgrades [3][9] - **FinTech and Business Services (FBS)**: Expected to grow by 7.5% YoY, impacted by weaker commercial payments [4][9] Revenue Breakdown - **VAS Revenue**: Estimated at Rmb 88.469 billion for 4Q25, with online games contributing Rmb 57.433 billion [12] - **Domestic Games**: Expected to grow by 12.5% YoY - **International Games**: Expected to grow by 25.4% YoY - **Marketing Services Revenue**: Projected at Rmb 41.488 billion, reflecting an 18.5% increase [12] - **FBS Revenue**: Expected at Rmb 60.336 billion, a 7.5% increase YoY [12] Profitability Metrics - **Gross Profit**: Expected to be Rmb 105.653 billion, with a gross margin of 54.8% [12] - **Operating Profit (Non-IFRS)**: Projected at Rmb 67.790 billion, with a non-IFRS operating margin of 35.2% [12] - **Net Profit (Non-IFRS)**: Expected to be Rmb 61.160 billion, reflecting a 10.6% increase YoY [12] Market Position and Strategy - **Price Target**: Maintained at HK$735, implying a 19% upside from the current price of HK$617.50 [5][7] - **Valuation Approach**: Price target derived from a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, with a 10% discount rate and 3% terminal growth rate [16][19] - **Competitive Position**: Tencent is viewed as a leading player in China's online consumer market, with strong revenue growth and earnings visibility [26][27] Risks and Considerations - **Macro Environment**: The company is navigating a macroeconomic slowdown, but remains resilient compared to peers [1][5] - **Regulatory Risks**: Rising competitive and regulatory risks in the industry are acknowledged [5][26] - **Investment in AI**: Initial investments in AI are expected to narrow operating leverage, leading to a slight reduction in non-IFRS OP estimates for 2025-27 by 1-2% [5][9] Future Outlook - **Growth Projections**: Total revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.1% from 2025 to 2030 [25] - **Earnings Visibility**: Continued focus on monetization across all products and services, particularly in mobile games and fintech [24][26] Conclusion - Tencent Holdings Ltd. is positioned to maintain growth despite macroeconomic challenges, with a strong focus on AI and digital services. The company’s strategic investments and market leadership in various segments provide a solid foundation for future performance.

Summary of Alibaba Group Holding Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Alibaba Group Holding (BABA.N) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: US$403.539 billion - **Current Stock Price**: US$169.90 (as of January 14, 2026) - **Price Target**: US$180.00, indicating a 6% upside potential Key Developments - **Launch of Qwen AI Assistant**: - Qwen AI can perform over 400 daily tasks through integration with the Alibaba ecosystem, providing one-stop solutions [1] - The Qwen App achieved over 100 million monthly active users (MAU) within two months of its launch [1] - Alibaba anticipates that 60-70% of digital-world tasks will be completed by AI in the next two years, with the remaining tasks enhanced by AI for efficiency [1] Market Position and Competition - **Ecosystem Integration**: - Qwen leverages Alibaba's ecosystem, including Taobao, Eleme, Fliggy, Amap, and Alipay, positioning it as an all-in-one AI superapp and life assistant [3] - Competitors like Tencent are enhancing their AI models, although their product launches may lag behind [3] Financial Expectations - **User Growth and Revenue**: - Expected increase in daily active users (DAU) for Qwen and improvements in its capabilities are projected to drive share price growth alongside cloud revenue, estimated to grow by over 35% in F3Q and 40% in F27 [4] - **Marketing Expenses**: - Increased marketing spending for consumer adoption may lead to higher overall losses, estimated at RMB 7 billion in F3Q [4] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: - Better monetization in core e-commerce could drive earnings growth [18] - Faster enterprise digitalization may re-accelerate cloud revenue growth [18] - Stronger demand for AI could further boost cloud revenue [18] - **Downside Risks**: - Increased competition and higher-than-expected reinvestment costs [18] - Weaker consumer spending amid a slower post-COVID recovery [18] - Regulatory scrutiny of internet platforms could pose additional challenges [18] Financial Metrics - **Fiscal Year Ending**: March 2025 - **Revenue Estimates**: - FY 2025: RMB 996 billion - FY 2026: RMB 1,022 billion - FY 2027: RMB 1,111 billion - FY 2028: RMB 1,202 billion [8] - **Net Income Estimates**: - FY 2025: RMB 129 billion - FY 2026: RMB 111 billion - FY 2027: RMB 106 billion - FY 2028: RMB 141 billion [8] Conclusion - Alibaba Group Holding is positioned to capitalize on the growing AI market through its Qwen AI Assistant, which integrates seamlessly into its extensive ecosystem. While there are significant growth opportunities, the company must navigate competitive pressures and regulatory challenges to achieve its financial targets.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services, specifically focusing on the AI sector in China - **Key Development**: Approval of Nvidia's H200 chip for sale to approved customers in China, enhancing AI capabilities in the region [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Geopolitical Context**: Reduced geopolitical tensions are beneficial for China's AI enablers and adopters, lowering the risk of losing access to high-performing GPUs [1][3] - **Performance Comparison**: The H200 chip offers approximately 6x faster performance and 50% more memory compared to its predecessor, the H20, but at over 2x the average selling price (ASP) [2] - **Regulatory Outlook**: No significant pushback from Chinese regulators is expected regarding the purchase of H200 chips by Chinese cloud service providers (CSPs) [3] - **Impact on Local Chips**: While local chips can address inference computing, they cannot yet replace the H200 for model training, indicating a continued reliance on high-performing GPUs for scaling China's large language models (LLMs) [3][4] - **Local Chip Self-Sufficiency**: Forecasts suggest that China's local GPU self-sufficiency ratio will increase from 39% to 50% by 2027, driven by advancements in local semiconductor manufacturing [4] Stock Implications - **Positive Outlook for CSPs**: Companies like Tencent and Alibaba are expected to benefit significantly, especially as Tencent had previously reduced capital expenditure guidance due to GPU supply chain constraints [9] - **Data Center Providers**: Companies such as GDS and VNET are anticipated to receive substantial new orders in the domestic market following a period of muted demand [9] Additional Considerations - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the ongoing focus of Chinese LLMs, led by DeepSeek, on increasing intelligence density and optimizing computing power [4] - **Investment Risks**: Potential risks include intensified competition, regulatory scrutiny, and the impact of macroeconomic factors on consumer spending and enterprise digitalization [16][19] Conclusion - The approval of the H200 chip is a significant development for China's AI industry, with positive implications for major players like Tencent and Alibaba, as well as data center providers. The ongoing advancements in local chip manufacturing suggest a gradual shift towards greater self-sufficiency in the semiconductor space, although challenges remain in terms of competition and regulatory environments [1][3][9]

November 28, 2025 09:14 AM GMT Meituan | Asia Pacific M Update 3Q25 Miss on CLC Rev and OP Reaction to earnings Weakens our thesis Modest shortfall Modest revision lower Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month consensus EPS Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Key Takeaways | Exhibit 1: | 3Q25 results review | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MS Estiamtes vs Co | | | | | | | | 3QFY-2025E | | | Financials (Rmb ...

Summary of Alibaba Group Holding Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Alibaba Group Holding - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: US$381.76 billion - **Current Stock Price**: US$160.73 - **Price Target**: US$200.00, implying a 24% upside from the current price [7][19] Key Points Cloud Growth and Industry Demand - **Alicloud Growth**: Expected to grow at 35% in F3Q, 36% in F4Q, and 40% in F27, driven by strong industry demand [2][19] - **Capex Guidance**: Current 3-year capex guidance of Rmb380 billion may be insufficient to meet customer demand [2][19] - **AI Applications**: Recent launches like Quark AI assistant and Qwen app are anticipated to boost adoption [2][19] Customer Management Revenue (CMR) - **CMR Growth**: Slowed to 7.5% in F3Q due to a weaker macro environment and high base effects from last year [3][19] - **Online Retail Sales**: Slowed to 5% in October, with parcel volume declining to 8% [3][19] Quick Commerce (QC) Performance - **QC Loss**: Estimated QC loss of Rmb25 billion in F3Q, better than the forecasted Rmb37 billion [4][19] - **Execution**: BABA managed to cut UE loss by half, with GMV share at 40% [4][19] Financial Performance - **EBITA**: Estimated e-commerce EBITA at Rmb37 billion, down 40% YoY; total EBITA at Rmb32 billion, down 41% YoY [4][19] - **Revenue Estimates**: Total revenues expected to reach Rmb1,029 billion in 2026, Rmb1,124 billion in 2027, and Rmb1,221 billion in 2028 [12][19] Valuation and Price Target - **Valuation Methodology**: DCF-based price target maintained at US$200, with a WACC of 10% and terminal growth rate of 3% [5][19] - **SOTP Valuation**: Remains at US$250 [5][19] Risk and Reward - **Market Conditions**: The online regulatory environment is easing, which could benefit Alibaba as a key player in the market [24][19] - **Investment Drivers**: Expected growth in China retail marketplaces GMV, with a take rate projected at 4.1% in 2025 [29][19] Other Important Insights - **Cash Flow**: Strong cash flow generation capabilities, dividends, and share buybacks could provide downside support [24][19] - **Analyst Ratings**: 90% of analysts rate the stock as Overweight, indicating strong market confidence [26][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Alibaba's growth prospects, financial performance, and market positioning.

Summary of Bilibili Inc. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Bilibili Inc (Ticker: BILI.O) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: US$11,642 million - **Current Stock Price**: US$25.31 (as of November 19, 2025) - **Price Target**: US$25.00, indicating a slight downside of 1% from the current price [4][4][4] Key Points User Engagement and Content Strategy - User engagement accelerated significantly in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 without additional sales and marketing expenses, attributed to a strategic shift towards long and high-quality video content since 2024 [1][1][1] - The percentage of time spent on long videos increased from 70% to 75%, while short video engagement decreased, highlighting the effectiveness of premium content as a key driver for user retention [1][1][1] - Bilibili aims to enhance creator productivity through various AI tools and a fan charging scheme to improve monetization [1][1][1] - AI technology is being utilized to identify and promote high-quality content more effectively [1][1][1] Advertising Revenue - The advertising business experienced a 10% increase in effective cost per mille (eCPM) in the first half of 2025, with high single-digit growth expected in the second half [2][2][2] - Current ad load is approximately 7%, with a target of reaching 10% in the future, compared to higher levels in peer companies [2][2][2] Financial Projections - Management projects achieving an operating profit margin (OPM) target of 15-20% within the next 2-3 years [2][2][2] - Revenue forecasts for the upcoming fiscal years are as follows: - 2025: Rmb 30,206 million - 2026: Rmb 33,053 million - 2027: Rmb 35,834 million [4][4][4] - Expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is Rmb 5.26, with projections of Rmb 6.61 and Rmb 8.90 for 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][4][4] Valuation and Risks - The valuation methodology is based on discounted cash flow with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 12% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [6][6][6] - Upside risks include stronger-than-expected advertising revenue growth and better user retention for key content [8][8][8] - Downside risks involve lower-than-expected monthly active user (MAU) growth and potential increases in sales and marketing expenses [8][8][8] Stock Rating - Current stock rating is Equal-weight, with an attractive industry view [4][4][4] - The stock has a 52-week range of US$32.50 to US$14.47, indicating volatility in its trading history [4][4][4] Additional Insights - The company is set to launch the NCard in late March 2026, focusing initially on daily active user (DAU) growth rather than immediate monetization [2][2][2] - The management's focus on AI tools and premium content suggests a strategic pivot towards enhancing user experience and engagement, which could lead to long-term growth [1][1][1] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of Bilibili Inc.'s current position, strategies, and future outlook.

Kuaishou Technology 3Q25 Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Kuaishou Technology (1024.HK) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: Rmb252,753 million - **Current Stock Price**: HK$63.50 - **Price Target**: HK$76.00 (20% upside) Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Results**: In line with estimates - Total Revenue: Rmb35,554 million, a 14% YoY increase - Online Marketing Services Revenue: Rmb20,102 million, a 14% YoY increase - Other Services Revenue: Rmb5,878 million, a 41% YoY increase - Gross Profit: Rmb19,434 million, a 15% YoY increase - Net Income: Rmb4,986 million, a 26% YoY increase - Diluted EPS: Rmb1.02, a 37% YoY increase [3][10][11] 4Q25 Outlook - **Revenue Guidance**: Slightly below market expectations - Domestic online marketing growth expected to slow to 14% - GMV growth projected to fall to 12.5-13% - Other revenue growth expected to slow from 41% in 3Q to 22-23% in 4Q due to commission rebates to e-commerce partners [2][3] 2026 Projections - **Revenue Estimates**: - 2026 Revenue: Rmb158 billion - 2027 Revenue: Rmb171 billion - **EPS Estimates**: - 2026 EPS: Rmb5.18 - 2027 EPS: Rmb5.76 [7] Strategic Insights - **Cost Control**: Management emphasizes cost control as a key factor for maintaining profitability in 4Q [4] - **Kling Product Performance**: Kling's revenue reached Rmb300 million, driven by B2B expansion, with a 40% contribution from B2B sales in 3Q25 [9][10] - **Advertising Growth**: External ads growth is expected to slow, but Internet content (short dramas, novels, and games) remains a growth driver [9] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: - Better-than-expected MAU growth - Improving ad revenue per DAU - Lower-than-expected sales and marketing expenses [16] - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected advertising revenue growth - Increased competition affecting MAU growth [16] Valuation Methodology - **Valuation Model**: Discounted cash flow model with a 12% WACC and 2% perpetual growth rate - **Kling Valuation**: Valued at 25x EV/S, aligning with top software companies globally [14] Conclusion Kuaishou Technology's 3Q25 results reflect solid growth, although the outlook for 4Q25 and 2026 shows signs of slowing growth. Cost control measures and strategic product developments, particularly with Kling, are critical for maintaining profitability and navigating competitive pressures in the market.

Summary of Tencent Holdings Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings Ltd. (0700.HK) - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Market Cap**: US$743.371 billion - **Current Stock Price**: HK$622.50 - **Price Target**: HK$735.00, representing an 18% upside potential [6][6][6] Key Points Discussed 1. Capital Expenditure (Capex) - Tencent is currently increasing procurement of domestic ASICs due to US GPU supply-chain constraints, leading to higher COGS/opex during the transition period [8] - The company anticipates a shift from leasing compute capacity back to capex from the second half of 2026 [8] 2. AI Applications - WeChat's user engagement is primarily based on human-to-human communication, which is less susceptible to disruption by AI [8] - The platform is under-monetized, indicating potential for revenue growth despite risks associated with AI [8] - Tencent is exploring multiple channels for AI applications, including WeChat and QQ Browser [8] 3. Hunyuan Foundation Model - Tencent has been actively recruiting top AI researchers globally to enhance the architecture of the Hunyuan foundation model [8] - The upcoming launch of Hunyuan 2.0 is expected to showcase significant improvements in capabilities, particularly in multimodal performance [8] 4. Financial Projections - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth from RMB 660.3 billion in FY 2024 to RMB 918.3 billion by FY 2027 [6] - **EPS Growth**: Expected EPS growth from RMB 20.63 in FY 2024 to RMB 31.68 by FY 2027 [6] - **EBITDA**: Anticipated increase from RMB 264.3 billion in FY 2024 to RMB 424.3 billion by FY 2027 [6] 5. Risks and Opportunities - **Opportunities**: Successful execution of new game launches, market share gains in social and short video ads, and resilience in social network competition [13] - **Risks**: Regulatory uncertainties in the gaming industry, intensified competition in social networks, and tightened regulations amid US-China tensions [13] 6. Analyst Ratings - The stock is rated as "Overweight" with an attractive industry view [6][6][6] - The company is highlighted as a top pick in the Asia Pacific region [1][1][1] Additional Insights - The company is focusing on AI applications as a growth area, with a strategic emphasis on enhancing user engagement through its platforms [8] - The management's confidence in the Hunyuan model's capabilities suggests a forward-looking approach to AI integration in their services [8] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting Tencent's strategic direction, financial outlook, and the potential risks and opportunities in the evolving market landscape.