Core Viewpoint - Alibaba and Tencent are two major Chinese tech companies with distinct business models and growth trajectories, facing challenges from regulatory scrutiny and market competition, making their long-term investment reliability a subject of debate [1][2]. Alibaba - Alibaba's revenue primarily comes from its two main marketplaces, Taobao and Tmall, with a smaller portion from its cloud infrastructure business, which has lower margins [4]. - Over the past five years, Alibaba's stock has declined by nearly 40%, attributed to cooling economic growth, antitrust scrutiny, and trade tensions [2]. - Analysts project Alibaba's revenue and earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% and 11%, respectively, from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2028, indicating a stabilization phase rather than high growth [7]. - The company is expected to leverage AI-driven recommendations and logistics upgrades to stabilize its core businesses while expanding its international marketplaces [7]. Tencent - Tencent's primary growth driver is WeChat, a super app with over 1.41 billion monthly active users, alongside its video game publishing business [8]. - Tencent's stock has seen a modest increase of 6% over the past five years, facing challenges from competition and regulatory pressures in the gaming sector [2][10]. - Analysts forecast Tencent's revenue and EPS to grow at a CAGR of 11% and 15%, respectively, from 2024 to 2027, supported by the integration of AI into its services and expansion into fintech and business services [12]. - The company is diversifying its revenue streams by enhancing its fintech services and expanding its overseas gaming business to mitigate reliance on the Chinese market [11]. Investment Comparison - Alibaba is trading at 17 times its next year's earnings, while Tencent is at 20 times, with Alibaba appearing cheaper but growing at a slower rate [13]. - Tencent is viewed as a more stable growth option due to the irreplaceable nature of WeChat for its users, despite facing competition in advertising and gaming [13][14]. - Both companies could attract more investors if U.S.-China trade tensions ease, but Tencent's growth strategies seem more robust compared to Alibaba's [14].

Core Viewpoint - Meta is acquiring AI startup Manis for $2 billion, which is expected to enhance its AI applications and consumer engagement, particularly through WhatsApp [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Manis, which creates AI agents for small and medium-sized businesses, is seen as a strategic move for Meta [1]. - The deal is relatively small at $2 billion, but it has positively impacted Meta's stock price, which rose by 1.2% [2]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - Meta is focusing on three fronts: super intelligence, tools for merchants to improve advertising, and enhancing consumer engagement through AI [3]. - The integration of Manis into WhatsApp is aimed at creating a multifunctional platform similar to WeChat, which combines various services like payments and communication [4][5]. Group 3: Monetization Potential - The acquisition is expected to improve monetization opportunities for WhatsApp, which is still in early stages compared to WeChat [6]. - By enhancing consumer engagement and providing diverse functionalities, Meta aims to increase ad sales and overall monetization [6][7].

Global Markets Strategy 23 December 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy 100%/88% of CSI300/MXCN have reported 3Q25: highlights on internet platforms and AI Equity Macro Research Wendy Liu AC (852) 2800-1087 wendy.m.liu@ ...

Core Viewpoint - China's economic policies and technological advancements are creating opportunities for U.S.-listed Chinese companies, indicating a potential rebound in 2026 [2][3][8]. Economic Policy Changes - In December 2025, China's Politburo announced a shift to a moderately loose monetary policy for the first time since 2010, breaking a 14-year trend of cautious policy [3]. - The Central Economic Work Conference set a 4% budget deficit target and prioritized domestic demand for 2026 [3]. Financial Institutions' Outlook - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 GDP forecast to 4.8%, while the IMF expects 4.5% growth, reflecting increased confidence in China's recovery plans [4]. Technology Sector Growth - China's technology sector is thriving, particularly in artificial intelligence and e-commerce, with the e-commerce market valued at approximately $2.42 trillion in 2025 and projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% to reach around $5.68 trillion by 2035 [5]. - Major companies like Alibaba and JD.com are leveraging AI to enhance customer experiences [5]. Manufacturing Advancements - Significant progress is being made in semiconductors and electric vehicles, with record sales of 1.82 million electric vehicles in November 2025, capturing 53% of the domestic market [6]. Government Investments - Beijing is heavily investing in green energy and advanced manufacturing technologies, with Alibaba committing over $50 billion for cloud and AI development [7]. Economic Indicators - Manufacturing activity reached a five-month high in November, and consumer prices rose to 0.7%, the highest in 21 months, indicating effective government stimulus measures [8]. Stock Performance and Opportunities - Tencent, Baidu, and Bilibili have seen recent stock declines of 13.5%, 9.3%, and 12.5% respectively, presenting potential entry points for investors [10]. - Tencent reported record gaming sales of $10 billion internationally, with a 15% revenue growth and a 43% surge in international gaming [11]. - Bilibili achieved a net profit of RMB469 million in Q3 2025, with a 233% year-over-year increase in adjusted net profit and 13 consecutive quarters of gross margin expansion [13]. - Baidu's AI capabilities are expanding, with a significant focus on semiconductor value and a projected earnings increase of 1.1% to $8.36 per share for 2026 [15][16].

Key Takeaways China signaled a 2026 turnaround as Beijing shifted to a looser policy & made domestic demand a top priority.Tencent Holdings could benefit from rising consumer spending as stimulus measures support growth across China.BIDU is positioned to gain as China's AI sector expands alongside stronger tech and manufacturing trends.China's bold policy changes and booming tech sectors are creating fresh momentum for U.S.-listed Chinese companies like Tencent Holdings (TCEHY) , Bilibili (BILI) , and Baidu ...

Not every artificial intelligence (AI) stock has soared to unreasonable new highs.Artificial intelligence (AI) has been the driving force behind the current bull market since it started in October 2022. Many artificial intelligence stocks have soared to new all-time highs amid the fervor, even if the underlying fundamentals don't always justify those high prices. Investor optimism and exuberance surrounding the potential for AI to improve productivity and profits across industries has left many stocks looki ...

BANGKOK (AP) — Paramount Skydance says the Chinese gaming and social media giant Tencent Holdings withdrew from its bid to buy Warner Bros Discovery to avert a possible national security review. Paramount's revised filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission of its takeover bid said the Chinese company had dropped its $1 billion financing commitment out of concern, since it would be a “non-U.S. equity financing source,” that its bid might be subject to a review by the Committee on Foreign Inve ...

Core Viewpoint - Tencent Holdings has withdrawn from the takeover bid for Warner Bros Discovery by Paramount Skydance Corp to avoid increased scrutiny of foreign investments in the US [1][2][4] Group 1: Tencent's Involvement - Tencent had initially pledged US$1 billion as part of Paramount's proposal to acquire Warner Bros, but was removed as a financing partner in the latest all-cash offer of US$30 per share [2][4] - The decision to remove Tencent was influenced by concerns from Warner Bros regarding potential reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) [2][4] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - Tencent's withdrawal highlights the tightening regulatory environment for Chinese investments in significant US media and technology deals [4] - The US Department of Defense designated Tencent as a "Chinese military company" in January 2025, leading to increased scrutiny of its activities in the US [5][6] Group 3: Tencent's Financial Position - Tencent has a market capitalization of approximately US$700 billion and over US$20 billion in cash and equivalents as of the end of September, indicating strong financial capacity for overseas acquisitions [5] - The company holds stakes in several US tech and gaming firms, including Epic Games and Snap Inc., despite the regulatory challenges it faces [5]

RT Sunny Young (@isunnyyoung)WeChatTweak 更新支持了 WeChat 4 版本 🎉没想到已经用爱发电 8 年多了 😹 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Internet and Other Services - **Industry View**: Attractive [5][11] Core Company Insights Doubao Smartphone AI Assistant - **Company**: Bytedance - **Product Launch**: Doubao smartphone AI assistant demo released on December 1, 2025, integrated into ZTE's operating system [8][9] - **Capabilities**: The assistant can read screens, access apps, and perform complex tasks [8] - **Concerns**: Potential traffic loss for toC apps due to Doubao's capabilities, but execution challenges are anticipated [8][10] Competitive Landscape - **OEM Cooperation**: Significant hurdles exist for Bytedance in collaborating with major smartphone OEMs like Apple, Huawei, and Xiaomi, who may prefer to develop their own AI assistants [10] - **Market Dynamics**: Super apps in China (e.g., WeChat, Taobao) are more dominant and likely to develop their own AI solutions, which could limit Doubao's market penetration [11] Investment Recommendations - **Tencent (OW)**: Identified as the best AI application proxy in China, with WeChat's extensive functionalities and user base. Upcoming launch of next-gen AI model Hunyuan 2.0 expected to enhance its position [11][13] - **Alibaba (OW)**: Recognized as the best AI infrastructure provider, with anticipated acceleration in cloud revenue growth due to robust industry demand [13] - **Meitu (OW)**: Noted for improving monthly operating data and market share expansion, with a focus on last-mile services that AI assistants cannot fulfill [13] Key Features of Doubao AI Assistant - **User Interaction**: Activated via voice, earbuds, or a side button; capable of initiating calls and reading screens [12] - **Multi-modal Generation**: Can perform tasks like photo editing and app access for various functions [12] - **Memory Feature**: Personalizes tasks based on user data with authorization [12] - **Pro Mode**: Enhanced reasoning capabilities for complex tasks like trip planning [12] Risks and Challenges - **OEM Collaboration**: Difficulty in establishing partnerships with smartphone manufacturers could hinder Doubao's ecosystem development [10] - **Market Competition**: Intense competition from super apps and potential regulatory scrutiny may impact growth [21][23] Conclusion - The China Internet and Other Services sector remains attractive, with specific focus on AI applications. Companies like Tencent, Alibaba, and Meitu are positioned favorably amidst the evolving landscape, while Bytedance's Doubao AI assistant faces significant execution challenges in gaining traction within the competitive market.