Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel was strong, mainly influenced by macro - level sentiment. On the fundamentals, the arrival inventory from the Philippines increased, weakening the support of nickel ore. The second - phase nickel ore benchmark price in Indonesia in July also decreased due to weak downstream demand. The intraday transaction price of nickel iron had a certain correction, and the latest transaction price of iron plants in August moved up. Attention should be paid to the impact of the subsequent decreasing trend of nickel iron supply. Stainless steel was also strong due to the speech of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, with large - scale factories still having a sentiment of production reduction, and spot prices generally rising. The new energy chain still maintains a production - based - on - sales situation. Macro - level attention should be paid to the follow - up of the document issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the negotiation trend of nickel resources between Indonesia and the United States [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Strategy - The price range forecast of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a current volatility historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - Inventory management strategies include: when the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value reduction, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2); buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs (hedging ratio based on the procurement plan, strategy level 3) [2] - Procurement management strategies include: when the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, sell put options (hedging ratio based on the procurement plan, strategy level 1); buy out - of - the - money call options (hedging ratio based on the procurement plan, strategy level 3) [2] 2. Core Contradictions - The intraday strength of Shanghai nickel is affected by macro - level sentiment. The increase in the arrival inventory from the Philippines weakens the support of nickel ore, and the decrease in the Indonesian nickel ore benchmark price is due to weak downstream demand. The transaction price of nickel iron has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the supply trend. Stainless steel is strong due to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's speech, and the new energy chain maintains a production - based - on - sales situation [3] 3.利多 and 利空 Analysis - Positive factors include the continuous ban on cobalt mines in the Congo, Indonesia's plan to revise the HPM formula, the shortening of the nickel ore quota license period in Indonesia, the potential impact of the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the United States on the nickel industry chain, and the upcoming growth work plan for industries such as steel and non - ferrous metals issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [4] - Negative factors include that stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow [4] 4. Market Data - Nickel disk daily data: The latest values of Shanghai nickel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts increased by 2%, 1.76%, 1.77%, and 1.77% respectively compared with the previous day. The LME nickel 3M increased by 1.83%. The trading volume increased by 42.94%, the open interest decreased by 17.01%, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 2.87%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 66.9% [5] - Stainless steel disk daily data: The latest values of stainless steel main - continuous, continuous - one, and continuous - two contracts increased by 1%, 1.41%, and 1.37% respectively compared with the previous day, while the continuous - three contract decreased by 0.08%. The trading volume increased by 57.32%, the open interest increased by 13.93%, the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 6.31%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 1.47% [6] - Nickel industry inventory data: The domestic social inventory increased by 1,165 tons, the LME nickel inventory increased by 300 tons, the stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.1 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 4,301 tons [7]