交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（1.26-1.30） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价震荡走弱，周五更是随着金银铜等大幅回落，现货整体成交一般。供 应方面，前期减产的产能开始恢复生产，进口货源陆续到货，印尼寒锐镍板也有大量提供， 市场供应充足。产业链上，镍矿看涨情绪较浓重，菲律宾与印尼都有强支撑。镍铁价格继 续上涨，成本线上升。不锈钢库存开始回升，要注意库存回升之后不锈钢价格或有反转。 精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4、镍铁市场状况分析 5、不锈钢市场状况分析 6、新能源汽车产销情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices continued to rise significantly. The main bulls did not take profits but engaged in high - selling and low - buying at high levels. Recently, some production capacities have cut production, reducing supply pressure. The nickel ore price is stable, the shipping volume is affected by weather, and mines have a strong bullish sentiment. The ferronickel price continues to rebound, and the cost line rises. The stainless steel inventory has declined and is short - term affected by nickel prices. The refined nickel inventory remains at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [6]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, prices continued to rise significantly, moving away from the moving averages. The long - position power was still strong with no sign of taking profits. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. The previous top support was effective, and short - sellers should mainly wait and see. If the price falls back to the previous box, they can consider short - selling [78]. Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Futures**: The nickel price is strong. Short - sellers should wait and see and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box [7]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: It is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend. Short - sellers should wait temporarily [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of laterite nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% change [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 3.23% to 27,200 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 3.36% to 30,750 yuan/ton [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased by 5.46% to 141,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai Russian nickel increased by 5.22% to 134,050 yuan/ton, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased by 6.68% to 142,100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Ferronickel**: According to MySteel data, the price of low - grade ferronickel in Shandong remained unchanged at 3,300 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade ferronickel increased by 1.65% to 925 yuan/nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - grade ferronickel decreased by 25.5 yuan/nickel to 930.5 yuan/nickel, and the price of low - grade ferronickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 1.19% to 13,762.5 yuan/ton [12]. 2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions - The nickel ore price remained stable this week, and the freight rate was the same as last week. As of December 25, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.7647 million wet tons, a decrease of 626,700 wet tons or 4.35% from the previous period. In November 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3434 million tons or 28.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 94,600 tons or 2.92%. Mines have a strong bullish sentiment, and the shipping volume is affected by weather. The downstream ferronickel price has improved, and the bargaining power has shifted upward [15]. 2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices continued to rise, and there was little receiving and shipping during the holiday. In the medium - to - long - term, the global nickel market is expected to maintain an oversupply pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. The traditional demand for stainless steel and other products has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.27%. The import volume was 12,670.512 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.07% and a year - on - year increase of 40.86%. The export volume was 10,926.086 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.06% and a year - on - year increase of 0.80%. The LME inventory decreased by 534 tons to 255,162 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 1,090 tons to 45,544 tons [21][28][31]. 2.4. Ferronickel Market Conditions - The ferronickel price continued to rebound. In November 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. The import volume was 895,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The inventory in November was 218,500 physical tons, equivalent to 22,500 tons of nickel [41][44][47]. 2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased this week. In November, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4931 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 1.82% month - on - month. The import volume was 112,100 tons, and the export volume was 405,300 tons. As of December 31, the national stainless steel inventory was 977,400 tons, a decrease of 27,700 tons from the previous period [55][59][62]. 2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. In November, the production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 53.2% of the total new vehicle sales [72]. 3. Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, prices continued to rise significantly, moving away from the moving averages. The long - position power was still strong with no sign of taking profits. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. The previous top support was effective, and short - sellers should mainly wait and see. If the price falls back to the previous box, they can consider short - selling [78]. 4. Industry Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Impact on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore has a neutral - to - bullish impact as the price is stable and mines are bullish; ferronickel has a neutral - to - bullish impact as the price rebounds and the cost line rises; refined nickel has a neutral impact as there is short - term production cut and reduced supply pressure, but the long - term oversupply pattern remains with high inventory; stainless steel has a neutral impact as the inventory declines and the cost rises; new energy has a neutral impact as the production data is good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continues [81]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the main nickel futures contract, the nickel price is strong, and short - sellers should wait and see and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box. For the main stainless steel futures contract, it is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend, and short - sellers should wait temporarily [83][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, nickel prices rose significantly due to concerns about raw material supply caused by Indonesia's quota issue. Some production capacities have recently cut production, reducing supply pressure [8]. - In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices partially dropped slightly, shipping freight decreased, and ore inventory was at a high level. With the arrival of the rainy season, ore supply decreased, and mines held firm on prices. Nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line increased. Stainless steel inventory declined and was short - term affected by nickel prices. Refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The nickel market is expected to maintain a supply - surplus pattern dominated by Indonesia's low - cost production capacity in the long - term. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. The industry will accelerate the elimination of high - cost production capacity at low prices, and the bottom of nickel prices will be anchored to the cost line of Indonesian nickel pig iron [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel**: The price of nickel is strong. Short - sellers should wait and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box range [8][9]. - **Stainless steel**: The stainless steel market will operate with a slight upward trend. Short - sellers should wait for the moment [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes | Product | This Week | Last Week | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% | 54 | 54 | 0.00% | | Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% | 47 | 48 | - 2.08% | | Battery - grade nickel sulfate | 26350 | 26350 | 0.00% | | Electro - plating grade nickel sulfate | 29750 | 29750 | 0.00% | | Low - nickel iron (Shandong) | 3300 | 3300 | 0.00% | | High - nickel iron (Shandong) (yuan/nickel point) | 910 | 895 | 1.68% | | Shanghai electrolytic nickel | 134550 | 123850 | 8.64% | | Shanghai Russian nickel | 127400 | 117600 | 8.33% | | Jinchuan ex - factory price | 133200 | 123600 | 7.77% | | 304 stainless steel | 13600 | 13437.5 | 1.21% | [13][14] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market - Some nickel ore prices dropped by 1 US dollar/wet ton this week, and shipping freight decreased by 1.5 US dollars/wet ton. - As of December 25, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.7647 million wet tons, a decrease of 626,700 wet tons or 4.35% from the previous period. - In November 2025, nickel ore imports were 3.3395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3434 million tons or 28.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 94,600 tons or 2.92%. From January to November 2025, the total nickel ore imports were 40.2704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.10%. - Nickel ore transactions were fair this week. With the arrival of the rainy season, mine shipments decreased significantly, and there was an expectation of rising ore prices. The rebound in downstream nickel iron prices eased the pressure on ore price reduction [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market - Nickel prices rose significantly this week, and downstream buyers were highly cautious. Some producers cut production, and imported supplies were tight, causing the spot premium to rise. The import window opened this week, and traders locked in prices. - In the long - and medium - term, the global nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide support. - In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.27%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production was 381,727 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 27.34%. - In November 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 12,670.512 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,929 tons or 30.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 3,676 tons or 40.86%. Exports were 10,926.086 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,741 tons or 20.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 87 tons or 0.80%. - LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons to 255,696 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 826 tons to 44,454 tons [22][25][26][29][32][38]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market - According to MySteel data, low - nickel iron prices remained flat at 3,300 yuan/ton, and high - nickel iron prices rose by 15 yuan/nickel to 910 yuan/nickel. - In November 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 22,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. - In November 2025, China's nickel iron imports were 895,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons or 1.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13,000 tons or 1.4%. From January to November 2025, the total imports were 10.153 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.171 million tons or 27.2%. - In November, the negotiable nickel iron inventory was 218,500 physical tons, equivalent to 22,500 tons of nickel [43][44][46][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market - The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four regions) rose by 162.5 yuan/ton this week. - In November, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4931 million tons, of which the production of 200 - series was 1.042 million tons, 400 - series was 689,400 tons, and 300 - series was 1.7617 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. - The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 112,100 tons, and exports were 405,300 tons. - As of December 26, the inventory in Wuxi was 570,900 tons, in Foshan was 283,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0051 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,000 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 631,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons [57][58][61][64][68]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. In November, the production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, and the market share of new energy vehicles in total new vehicle sales reached 53.2%. - In November 2025, the production of power + energy - storage batteries in Chinese battery factories was 193 GWh. The total production of power + energy - storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rose significantly and moved away from the 20 - day moving average. In terms of positions, the long - side force was strong, and the position - increasing force was large, indicating a short - term strong trend. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. Short - sellers should wait and see if the previous top provides effective support. If the price falls back to the previous box range, they can consider short - selling [79]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel ore**: Neutral to strong. Transactions were fair, and concerns about reduced raw material supply due to Indonesia's quota issue [82]. - **Nickel iron**: Neutral. Nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line moved up [82]. - **Refined nickel**: Neutral. Short - term production cuts reduced supply pressure, but the long - term oversupply pattern remained, and inventory was at a high level [82]. - **Stainless steel**: Neutral. Inventory declined, and costs increased [82]. - **New energy**: Neutral. Production data was good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continued [82].

Core Viewpoint - Lygend Resources (2245.HK) continues its upward trend, experiencing a significant increase of over 12%, with a total rise of over 40% over six days, reaching a new high of HKD 22.56 and a total market capitalization of HKD 35.1 billion [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Lygend Resources has established a complete industrial chain covering nickel ore trading, smelting production, equipment manufacturing, and sales [1] - The company has signed long-term trade and supply agreements with mining companies in the Philippines and Indonesia, enhancing its upstream operations [1] - The company has developed a total nickel production capacity of 400,000 metal tons on OBI Island, Indonesia, and is expanding into downstream products such as nickel sulfate and cobalt [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association recently announced a significant reduction in nickel ore production applications for 2026, with an estimated 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - CICC has indicated that Lygend's wet process capacity in Indonesia is expected to benefit from this industry shift, with potential for future expansion in the Indonesian nickel industry chain [1]

Group 1 - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) reported a significant decrease in nickel ore production target for 2026, set at approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - APNI Secretary General Medi Katrin Lengi explained that the reduction in production plans is aimed at preventing further declines in nickel prices [1] - Liqin Resources is identified as a leading global player in the nickel industry, covering the entire nickel supply chain from trading to smelting and equipment manufacturing [1] Group 2 - Liqin Resources' stock price increased by over 8%, reaching HKD 18.85, with a trading volume of HKD 59.16 million [2] - The stock performance reflects a positive market response, with an increase of 8.33% noted at the time of reporting [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Lygend Resources (02245) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 8%, reaching HKD 18.85 with a trading volume of HKD 59.16 million [1] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) reported a substantial decrease in the nickel ore production target for 2026, set at approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - The APNI Secretary General, Medy Katrin Lengi, explained that the production plan is intentionally set lower than this year to prevent further declines in nickel prices [1] Group 2 - Lygend Resources is recognized as a leading player in the global nickel industry, covering the entire nickel supply chain [1] - The company has evolved from nickel ore trading to a comprehensive industrial operation, encompassing nickel ore trading, smelting production, equipment manufacturing, and sales [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. Some production capacities were cut recently, reducing supply pressure. In the industrial chain, the nickel ore tender in Indonesia was finalized, with nickel ore prices slightly declining and ocean freight remaining flat. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating an expected supply surplus. Nickel iron prices remained stable with a slight decline, and the cost line stopped falling and stabilized. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the surplus pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: Nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. Some production capacities were cut, reducing supply pressure. In the industrial chain, the nickel ore tender in Indonesia was finalized, with nickel ore prices slightly declining and ocean freight remaining flat. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating an expected supply surplus. Nickel iron prices remained stable with a slight decline, and the cost line stopped falling and stabilized. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the surplus pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - and long - term, sell on rebounds. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore prices decreased. Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $56 to $54, a decrease of 3.57%; red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $50 to $48, a decrease of 4.00%. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from $26,750 to $26,450, a decrease of 1.12%, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at $29,500. Low - nickel iron (Shandong) remained unchanged at $3,300/ton, and high - nickel iron (Shandong) dropped from $895/ton to $890/ton, a decrease of 0.56%. Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from $122,150 to $122,570, an increase of 0.34%; Shanghai Russian nickel increased from $117,900 to $118,320, an increase of 0.36%; Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from $121,600 to $122,700, an increase of 0.90%. The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged at $13,275 [13][14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices decreased by $2/wet ton this week, and ocean freight remained the same as last week. As of December 4, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.6971 million wet tons, a decrease of 176,200 wet tons or 1.18% from the previous period. In October 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a decrease of 1.4316 million tons or 23.41% from the previous month, but an increase of 462,800 tons or 10.97% year - on - year. The nickel ore tender was finalized this week, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, with downstream purchasing based on rigid demand [17][18]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. After some production cuts, the surplus narrowed, but the supply pressure remained strong. Globally, the nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern dominated by low - cost Indonesian production capacities. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a decrease of 14.85% from the previous month and 15.27% year - on - year. LME inventories decreased by 1,644 tons to 253,116 tons, while SHFE inventories increased by 1,726 tons to 42,508 tons [23][26][38]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices stopped falling and remained stable. Low - nickel iron prices remained unchanged at $3,300/ton, and high - nickel iron prices dropped. In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production in metal terms was 22,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.43% but a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In October 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 905,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons or 16.6% from the previous month, but an increase of 214,000 tons or 31.0% year - on - year. The nickel iron inventory in October was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 tons of nickel [42][46][49]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged. In October, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons. The latest stainless steel import volume was 124,100 tons, and the export volume was 358,100 tons. As of December 5, the inventory in Wuxi was 576,400 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 346,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0803 million tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period [58][62][68]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the production and sales of power and other batteries were 170.6 GWh and 166 GWh respectively, a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and 13.3% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 50.5% and 50.8% respectively [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fluctuated slightly above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average continued to move downward. In terms of positions, the increase was limited, indicating that short - selling forces did not suppress the price again. From the indicators, MACD maintained an upward trend, while KDJ entered the overbought zone and needed to adjust. Overall, the price will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [79]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - The impact of each link on nickel prices: nickel ore is neutral; nickel iron is neutral to bearish; refined nickel is neutral to bearish; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral to bearish. The trading strategy is that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - and long - term, sell on rebounds. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [82][84][85].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2601, it will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is bearish considering fundamentals, inventory, and other factors, although the basis is bullish [2]. - For Stainless Steel 2601, it will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is neutral, with the basis being bullish and the inventory and some other factors being neutral or bearish [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On November 26, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 117,260, up 1,100 from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 14,845, down 75; the price of Stainless Steel's main contract was 12,455, up 50. Among the spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,850, up 1,300; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 122,050, up 1,400; 1 imported nickel was 117,800, up 1,100; nickel beans were 119,850, up 1,200. Cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel prices in different regions were mostly stable or slightly increased [11]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 39,795 tons, with futures inventory at 33,785 tons, decreasing by 778 tons and 1,242 tons respectively. On November 26, LME nickel inventory was 254,520, up 1,038; Shanghai Nickel's warehouse receipts were 33,944, up 294; the total inventory was 288,464, up 1,332 [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 21, the inventory in Wuxi was 574,000 tons, in Foshan was 353,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 658,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons. On November 26, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 63,765, down 125 [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On November 26, the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged; the price of red - clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 885 yuan per nickel point, down 2.5; the low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,200 yuan per ton, unchanged [21]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost was 12,476, the scrap - steel production cost was 12,769, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,274 [23]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 118,983 yuan per ton [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel price fluctuated weakly this week, facing downward pressure, with continuous increase in short - position of the main contract. In the long - term, the supply of primary nickel is strong, and the surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to the nickel market is limited [8]. - The stainless - steel market shows an oversupply situation, with rising inventory and prices under downward pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Futures**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly, facing downward pressure, with certain support at the previous low [9]. - **Stainless - steel Futures**: The main contract of stainless steel is under downward pressure, running weakly, and testing the support of the previous low [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Weekly Price Changes in the Industry Chain - **Nickel Ore**: The prices of red - laterite nickel ore with NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% change [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price all decreased compared to last week, with declines of - 0.56%, - 1.40%, and - 1.30% respectively [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - grade nickel iron in Shandong remained stable, while the price of high - grade nickel iron decreased by - 1.08% [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by - 0.83% compared to last week [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices remained stable, and ocean freight was the same as last week [17]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 15.0949 million wet tons, an increase of 1.88% from the previous period. The inventory of Philippine nickel ore increased by 1.12%, and that of other countries' nickel ore increased by 20.5% [17]. - **Import**: In September 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66% and a year - on - year increase of 33.91%. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 32.2481 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.77% [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market - **Price and Trading**: Nickel prices were under downward pressure. After the price dropped below 120,000, the wait - and - see sentiment increased, but near the previous low, downstream procurement became more active [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the long - term, both supply and demand will continue to increase, but the surplus pattern will not change. The substitution of ternary batteries is becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand is slowing down [27]. - **Production**: In October 2025, China's refined nickel production was 33,345 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.38% and a year - on - year increase of 8.09%. The estimated production in November 2025 was 32,710 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.90% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.39% [31]. - **Import and Export**: In September 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 28,367.371 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.29% and a year - on - year increase of 407.65%. The export volume was 14,112.095 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.22% and a year - on - year increase of 36.94% [34]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1,014 tons to 252,090 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 3,386 tons to 40,573 tons [40]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market - **Price**: The price of low - grade nickel iron remained stable, while the price of high - grade nickel iron decreased [47]. - **Production**: In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 22,900 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 5.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [49]. - **Import**: In September 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 1.085 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.2% and a year - on - year increase of 47.2%. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 8.353 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.3% [52]. - **Inventory**: In October, the tradable inventory of nickel iron was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 tons of nickel [55]. 3.2.5 Stainless - steel Market - **Price**: The average price of 304 stainless steel in four regions decreased by 112.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [62]. - **Production**: In October, the stainless - steel crude - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, with the 300 - series production increasing by 1.43% month - on - month [65]. - **Import and Export**: The latest stainless - steel import volume was 120,300 tons, and the export volume was 418,500 tons [68]. - **Inventory**: As of November 14, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.071 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 20,400 tons [71]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October, the cumulative production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively [75]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to be under pressure, with a significant increase in positions, and the short - side main force exerted its strength. The MACD indicator showed green bars spreading, indicating a downward trend. The KDJ entered the oversold area, suggesting a possible need for a rebound. Overall, it is expected to run weakly in a volatile manner and test the support of the previous low [81]. 3.4 Comprehensive Summary of the Industrial Chain - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral. The price is stable, and the supply from Indonesia is expected to be abundant, but the supply may slow down due to the approaching rainy season [84]. - **Nickel Iron**: Neutral. The price is stable with a slight decline, and the cost line continues to drop [84]. - **Refined Nickel**: Slightly bearish. The long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory continues to accumulate [84]. - **Stainless Steel**: Slightly bearish. The inventory is rising, and the supply is in excess [84]. - **New Energy**: Slightly bearish. The production data are good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continues [84].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly decline of 0.95%. The adjustment of tariff measures on US - imported goods and China's October official manufacturing PMI data were released. Domestically, the economy is resilient with rising prosperity in new energy and semiconductors, while overseas uncertainties remain high with a high - probability of future interest rate cuts. [6] - In terms of supply, RKAB approval in 2025 provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but new policy risks still exist. In September, China's nickel imports were large, nickel - iron production was low in China and high in Indonesia. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and production increased slightly in September. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production declined from a high level. [6] - Regarding demand, stainless - steel production improved in September and is expected to have a mild rebound in October. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, and the inventory increased after a decrease. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September. [6] - In terms of inventory, LME nickel inventory, SHFE inventory, and refined nickel social inventory all increased slightly last week. [6] - In the short term, the RKAB approval in 2025 provides raw material security, but new policy risks remain. Trade disputes affect market sentiment. Fundamentally, imported nickel remains at a high level, inventory is increasing, and Indonesian policies may affect supply but have not had an actual impact yet. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory have marginally improved, and nickel prices will generally fluctuate within a range. [6] Group 3: Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - Viewpoint: After considering supply, demand, and inventory factors, nickel prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - Strategy: Conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract and sell out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to changes in the mining end, stainless - steel production, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports in the future [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and their downstream applications in stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report mentions the LME nickel premium and discount and the SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis, but no specific analysis is provided [10]. 4. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's nickel ore imports decreased by 21.7% year - on - year to 36.5763 million tons due to significant nickel - iron production cuts. In August - September 2025, imports increased seasonally, reaching 6.3467 million and 6.1144 million tons respectively [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron production was 1.5138 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, production was 156,500 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron production was 296,400 tons, a 20.9% year - on - year decrease. In September 2025, production was 21,700 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level [21]. - In August - September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, pure - nickel supply expanded in 2024. In October 2025, domestic refined nickel production was 33,240 tons, a decline from a high level. In July - August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 2.786 million tons, at a high level, and exports were 170,000 tons, with a slight month - on - month decline [31]. 5. Intermediates Wet - Process Intermediates - In September 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. High - Grade Nickel Matte - Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% year - on - year increase. In August - September 2025, production was 20,300 and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there will be more planned intermediate - product capacities from 2025 - 2027 [43]. Nickel Sulfate - In September 2025, China's nickel sulfate production was 39,045.4 tons, a month - on - month increase. In August - September 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 30,292 and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 6. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 stainless - steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after a decline from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,549 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase [52]. Cathode - Material Demand - In terms of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. Driven by the trade - in policy, the total terminal demand is expected to continue growing in 2025. In September 2025, the production of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 7. Inventory Side - As of October 31, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 48,746 tons, a slight increase from the previous week [64]. - As of November 5, 2025, LME nickel inventory was 252,750 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of November 6, 2025, SHFE inventory was 32,689 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [68].