1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, mainly influenced by Indonesian policies and some positive news on the cost side. The supply is sufficient with increased production scheduling in March and rising domestic inventories. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, the Indonesian RKAB policy continues to have an impact, and Indonesia's bargaining power for nickel ore is rising. Ferronickel prices are weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories have slightly increased, and demand is weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles meet expectations, with a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season [6]. - The global nickel market is expected to maintain a supply surplus pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. The industry will accelerate the elimination of high - cost production capacity in the context of持续 low prices, and the bottom of nickel prices will be anchored to the cost line of Indonesian nickel pig iron [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, influenced by Indonesian policies and cost - side factors. Supply is sufficient, with increased production scheduling and rising inventories. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, ferronickel prices are weakly stable, stainless steel inventories have increased, and new energy vehicle production and sales are in the off - season [6]. - **Operation Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% decreased from $78 to $77, a decline of 1.28%; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% decreased from $73 to $72, a decline of 1.37%. Battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices remained unchanged. Low - nickel ferronickel (Shandong) and high - nickel ferronickel (Shandong) prices remained unchanged [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from 140,690 yuan to 141,870 yuan, an increase of 0.84%; Shanghai Russian nickel increased from 134,040 yuan to 136,320 yuan, an increase of 1.70%; Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from 140,600 yuan to 141,400 yuan, an increase of 0.57% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged at 15,062.5 yuan [12]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices decreased by $1 per wet ton this week, and ocean freight decreased by $2 per wet ton compared to last week [15][16]. - **Inventory**: On March 26, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.4184 million wet tons, a decrease of 508,200 wet tons or 6.41% from the previous period. Philippine nickel ore inventory was 7.1684 million wet tons, a decrease of 458,200 wet tons or 6%; other countries' nickel ore inventory was 250,000 wet tons, a decrease of 50,000 wet tons or 16.67% [16]. - **Import**: In February 2026, nickel ore imports were 1.2239 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 160,300 tons or 11.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 77,800 tons or 6.79%. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore imports were 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price and Spot**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated and strengthened, mainly affected by Indonesian policies and cost factors. Domestic inventories are high, supply is sufficient, downstream demand is for essential purchases, and the premium has decreased [23]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67,825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. In March 2026, the estimated refined nickel production was 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [30]. - **Import and Export**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel imports were 16,930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,135 tons or 23.27%, and a year - on - year increase of 9,333 tons or 122.85%. The net import of refined nickel was 14,664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel imports were 38,997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel exports were 2,266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,547 tons or 40.56%, and a year - on - year decrease of 17,934 tons or 88.78% [34]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 818 tons to 64,479 tons. Social inventory data shows that Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 379 tons, spot inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 26,238 tons, bonded area inventory decreased by 200 tons to 2,770 tons, and the total inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons [39]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - **Price**: According to Mysteel data, low - nickel ferronickel prices remained unchanged at 3,500 yuan/ton, and high - nickel ferronickel prices remained unchanged at 1,100 yuan/nickel point. According to SMM data, high - nickel ferronickel prices decreased by 0.5 yuan/nickel to 1,083.5 yuan/nickel, and low - nickel ferronickel prices decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 3,650 yuan/ton [44][45]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 21,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. Medium - and high - nickel pig iron production was 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; low - nickel pig iron production was 4,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, of which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [47]. - **Import**: In February 2026, China's ferronickel imports were 831,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78,200 tons or 8.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 77,300 tons or 8.51%. From January to February 2026, China's total ferronickel imports were 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96,500 tons or 5.25% [50]. - **Inventory**: In February, the tradable ferronickel inventory was 178,300 physical tons, equivalent to 17,000 tons of nickel. The tradable medium - and high - nickel ferronickel was 152,300 tons, equivalent to 16,900 tons of nickel [53]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four locations) remained unchanged from last week [58][59]. - **Production**: In February, stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818,300 tons of 200 - series, 572,300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [63]. - **Import and Export**: The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 109,000 tons and exports were 260,000 tons [66]. - **Inventory**: On March 27, the inventory in Wuxi was 601,200 tons, in Foshan was 390,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1575 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,100 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons [69]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Vehicle Production and Sales**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2%. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 41.2% of total vehicle sales [74]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2% [77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rebounded, fluctuated, and strengthened, returning to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The main contract positions increased to some extent, and the bullish force was relatively strong. The MACD indicator showed a golden cross and started to point upwards, and the KDJ slowly entered the overbought area. The previous bottom was supported again, and after the rebound, the pressure of the 20 - day moving average was evident. It may continue to fluctuate in the future [80]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB policy continues to have an impact, there is strong demand support in Indonesia, and mine quotes are firm [83]. - **Ferronickel**: Neutral. Ferronickel prices are weakly stable, and cost support is strong [83]. - **Refined Nickel**: Neutral to bearish. Supply is sufficient, and inventories are at a high level [83]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. Inventories have increased, and consumption is weak [83]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. It is the off - season for consumption, and production has decreased significantly month - on - month [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel and stainless - steel prices fluctuate widely this week. Policy disturbances push prices up mid - week, but limited breakthrough power due to macro - level impacts causes prices to decline again. The situation of the US - Iran war eases, and some traders bet on a near - term cease - fire. The Indonesian tax policy is still under discussion, and if implemented, it will strengthen the bottom space of the nickel industry chain. [3] - In the short - term, the trading logic of nickel and stainless - steel futures is mainly influenced by macro factors and Indonesian policies. There is strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel due to the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season expectation. In the long - term, the trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, with Indonesian supply and new - energy demand being key factors. [4][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The nickel and stainless - steel markets show wide - range fluctuations. Policy disturbances and macro - level impacts are the main factors. The Indonesian tax policy and RKAB quota approval are important variables. The supply of nickel ore and nickel iron shows different trends, and the demand for stainless steel is gradually recovering. [3] - The near - term trading logic is affected by macro and Indonesian policies, with strong bottom support for Shanghai nickel. The long - term trading logic focuses on supply - demand structure adjustment, and new - energy demand may increase. [4][7] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The basis and calendar - spread strategies of nickel and stainless - steel show no obvious arbitrage opportunities currently. [9] - The past trading strategies include buying and selling different nickel futures contracts and options, some of which have been closed with profits. [9] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For nickel, the price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 15,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. Risk - management strategies include shorting futures and options for inventory management and buying futures and options for procurement management. [10] - For stainless steel, the price range is predicted to be 1,250 - 1,500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.48% and a historical percentile of 36.6%. Similar risk - management strategies are recommended for inventory and procurement management. [11] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **Likely Positive Information**: Downstream stainless - steel demand recovers and inventory decreases. ESDM estimates the first - quarter approval quota to be 100 million tons, and plans to add tax - payment progress to the RKAB approval process. [12] - **Likely Negative Information**: The US dollar index strengthens, suppressing the metal market. The Fed's interest - rate hike expectation rises, and the implementation of the Indonesian nickel product windfall tax and export tax is postponed. [12] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: Nickel and stainless - steel futures show a strong trend this week. The price once reaches 138,000, but then drops due to macro - level suppression. The fundamentals have peak - season expectations, with inventory and warehouse receipts decreasing, and stainless - steel downstream production increasing. The cash market shows price stability and strong demand recovery. [13] - The net positions of key profitable seats in nickel decrease, with more long - position liquidation during the upward movement. For stainless steel, trading volume and open interest increase during the mid - week recovery, and there are opportunities to go long at low prices considering the peak - season expectation. [14] - There are no obvious changes in the basis and calendar - spread structures of nickel and stainless - steel, with no obvious arbitrage opportunities. [21] - **International Market**: The international market leads the domestic market, and the price hovers around 17,300. Indonesian policy disturbances have a stronger impact on the domestic market sentiment, while macro - level suppression is first reflected in the international market. There are frequent arbitrage opportunities between the domestic and international markets. The inventory of LME nickel decreases due to changes in delivery brands. [27] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the current downward range, the profit pressure of the nickel industry chain decreases after the disk rebound. The profit of integrated production of electrowon nickel from intermediates is high, the profit of pyrometallurgical production lines is still in a game, and the profit of nickel iron is also repaired. The price of upstream nickel ore is firm, and the downstream stainless - steel industry tries to lower raw - material prices. The profit of producing nickel sulfate from pure nickel in the new - energy sector shrinks, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rises. [40] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply of the nickel industry chain fluctuates more recently. Nickel ore production and shipment in Indonesia and the Philippines increase after the rainy season. ESDM expects to approve about 100 million tons of quotas in the first quarter, and the bottom support of nickel ore remains. The supply of nickel iron is expected to increase, but the domestic nickel - iron production is at a historical low due to cost competition. The supply of new - energy and intermediate products may decrease in the short - and medium - term. [42][43] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The valuation of nickel and stainless - steel is rising and adjusting. After the festival, upstream producers hold back supply and raise prices, and downstream demand in March and April is increasing. The new - energy chain shows a stable and strong price, with no obvious increase in marginal demand for nickel salts and nickel sulfate. There is an expectation of battery export rush in April, but it has not fully affected the demand for nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel inventory decreases slightly, and downstream demand is expected to increase in March and April. [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly, mainly affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar putting pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector. In terms of supply, the production schedule for March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate, indicating sufficient market supply. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. There was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. Nickel iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, but there was a significant month - on - month decline during the off - season [6]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate weakly, while the main contract of stainless steel is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: Nickel prices were affected by the war, with a stronger US dollar and overall pressure on non - ferrous metals. Supply was sufficient, and there were different situations in each part of the industrial chain [6]. - **Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [7][8] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 77 to 78, a 1.30% increase; the price of red earth nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from 72 to 73, a 1.39% increase [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel decreased from 32000 to 31250, a 2.34% decrease; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32500 [11]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 3500, and the price of high - nickel iron in Shandong remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased from 144970 to 140690, a 2.95% decrease; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased from 138020 to 134040, a 2.88% decrease; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144000 to 140600, a 2.36% decrease [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15087.5 to 15062.5, a 0.17% decrease [12] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: Nickel ore prices rose by 1 US dollar per wet ton this week, and sea freight remained the same as last week [15][16]. - **Inventory**: On March 19, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 7.9266 million wet tons, a decrease of 656800 wet tons or 7.65% from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of Philippine nickel ore was 7.6266 million wet tons, a decrease of 606800 wet tons or 7.37%; the inventory of nickel ore from other countries was 300000 wet tons, a decrease of 50000 wet tons or 14.29% [16]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, the nickel ore import volume was 1.2239 million tons, a decrease of 160300 tons or 11.58% month - on - month and an increase of 77800 tons or 6.79% year - on - year. From January to February 2026, the total nickel ore import volume was 2.6081 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.73% [16] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price**: Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, affected by the war and a stronger US dollar. Domestic nickel supply was sufficient, and inventories continued to rise [20][22]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel production was 32600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel production was 67825 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.65%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 39430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - **Imports and Exports**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel import volume was 16930.903 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5135 tons or 23.27% and a year - on - year increase of 9333 tons or 122.85%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel import volume was 38997.234 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5821 tons or 17.54%. In February 2026, China's refined nickel export volume was 2266.831 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1547 tons or 40.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 17934 tons or 88.78%. The net import volume this month was 14664.072 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 172.99%. From January to February 2026, the cumulative refined nickel export volume was 177407.479 tons, a year - on - year increase of 143135 tons or 417.64% [33]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In February 2026, China's sulfuric acid nickel physical production was 199500 tons, and the metal production was 43900 tons (new sample), a month - on - month decrease of 16.2%. The estimated production in March 2026 was 53100 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.06%. The battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 31250 yuan per ton, a decrease of 750 yuan per ton, and the electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel was quoted at 32500 yuan per ton, the same as last week [36]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1146 tons to 283512 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 20 tons to 63661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56690 tons. The social inventory data showed that the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 228 tons compared with last week, the spot inventory was 24727 tons, an increase of 413 tons, the bonded area inventory was 2970 tons, unchanged, and the total inventory was 84387 tons, an increase of 641 tons compared with last week [38] 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: According to MySteel data, the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3500 yuan per ton, and the price of high - nickel iron remained unchanged at 1100 yuan per nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - nickel iron decreased by 10.5 yuan per nickel compared with before the holiday, to 1084 yuan per nickel, and the price of low - nickel iron remained unchanged at 3675 yuan per ton [43][44]. - **Production**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual production in terms of metal was 21100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the production of low - nickel pig iron was 4700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67%. From January to February 2024, China's total nickel pig iron production was 42500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.48%, among which the nickel metal production of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 31300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.73% [46]. - **Imports**: In February 2026, China's nickel iron import volume was 831700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 78200 tons or 8.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 77300 tons or 8.51%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia in February was 796000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 89100 tons or 10.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 98700 tons or 11%. From January to February 2026, China's total nickel iron import volume was 1.7415 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96500 tons or 5.25%. Among them, the nickel iron imported from Indonesia was 1.6811 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 112500 tons or 6.27% [49]. - **Inventory**: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178300 physical tons, equivalent to 17000 nickel tons. The negotiable inventory of medium - and high - nickel iron was 152300 tons, equivalent to 16900 nickel tons [52] 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The average price of 304 stainless steel in four places decreased by 25 yuan per ton compared with last week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan per ton [57][58][59]. - **Production**: In February, the stainless steel crude steel production was 2.71 million tons, including 818300 tons of 200 - series, 572300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - **Imports and Exports**: The latest data showed that the stainless steel import volume was 109000 tons, and the export volume was 260000 tons [64]. - **Inventory**: On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 380600 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1274 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15000 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 693700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13400 tons [67] 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales Volume**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694000 and 765000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. The new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 42.4% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively, and the new sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.2% of the total new vehicle sales [71]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative production of power and energy - storage batteries was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 5.7 GWh, accounting for 21.7% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 39.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.4%; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 20.6 GWh, accounting for 78.3% of the total loading volume, a month - on - month decrease of 36.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.5%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic power battery loading volume was 68.3 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.2%. Among them, the cumulative loading volume of ternary batteries was 15.1 GWh, accounting for 22.1% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 53.3 GWh, accounting for 77.9% of the total loading volume, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [74] 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price started to weaken, the 20 - day moving average turned downward, the positions decreased significantly, and some long - positions withdrew. The MACD indicator showed a downward trend, and the KDJ entered the relatively bottom area, indicating a certain rebound demand. As long as the previous low is not broken, the oscillating trend remains intact, and an oscillating strategy is maintained [77] 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of each link on nickel prices is as follows: nickel ore is neutral to bullish due to the continuous impact of RKAB and strong demand in Indonesia; nickel iron is neutral with weakly stable prices and strong cost support; refined nickel is neutral to bearish with sufficient supply and high inventories; stainless steel is neutral with slightly decreasing inventories but still at a high level and weak consumption; new energy is neutral with a significant month - on - month decrease in production during the off - season [80]. - **Trading Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate weakly, and the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [82][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the bullish sentiment soared due to the shutdown of production capacities of four Indonesian enterprises, but then nickel prices fell again as the positive factors were digested and the international situation changed. In terms of supply, the production schedule in March increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. In the industrial chain, the bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market was strong, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to ferment, and there was a sharp contrast between the strong demand in Indonesia and the sluggish transactions due to the cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron was weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. The inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, and the month - on - month decline was significant during the off - season [6]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, the price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average, and the downward trend of the 20 - day moving average has changed and started to run horizontally. The change in position is small, indicating a stalemate between long and short. The direction of the MACD indicator is unclear, and the KDJ is at a medium level. Technically, the price may continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints** - For Shanghai nickel, this week, nickel prices fluctuated. The supply in March increased, and domestic inventories continued to accumulate. In the industrial chain, the bullish sentiment in the nickel ore market was strong, the price of nickel iron was weakly stable, the inventory of stainless steel continued to decline slightly, and the demand was weak. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles met expectations, and the month - on - month decline was significant during the off - season [6]. - **Strategies** - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [7][83]. - The main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [8][83]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% increased from $74 to $77, a rise of 4.05%; the price of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% increased from $69 to $72, a rise of 4.35% [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased from 31,750 yuan/ton to 32,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.79%; the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged at 32,500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron (Shandong) decreased from 3,550 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.41%; the price of high - nickel iron (Shandong) increased from 1,090 yuan/nickel point to 1,100 yuan/nickel point, a rise of 0.92% [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from 144,160 yuan/ton to 144,970 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.56%; the price of Shanghai Russian nickel increased from 137,060 yuan/ton to 138,020 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.70%; the ex - factory price of Jinchuan decreased from 144,400 yuan/ton to 144,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.28% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased from 15,112.5 yuan/ton to 15,087.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17% [12]. 2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions - **Price and Freight**: The nickel ore price increased by $3/wet ton this week, and the ocean freight increased by $5/wet ton. - **Inventory**: On March 12, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 8.5834 million wet tons, a decrease of 659,900 wet tons or 7.14% from the previous period. Among them, the nickel ore from the Philippines was 8.2334 million wet tons, a decrease of 604,900 wet tons or 6.84%; the nickel ore from other countries was 350,000 wet tons, a decrease of 55,000 wet tons or 13.58% [16]. - **Import**: In December 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million tons, a decrease of 1.3466 million tons or 40.33% month - on - month, and an increase of 473,100 tons or 31.13% year - on - year. The total nickel ore import volume from January to December 2025 was 42.2634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94% [16]. 2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - **Price and Purchase**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the price strengthened due to the shutdown of four Indonesian wet - smelting plants, but then fell again in the second half of the week. Downstream maintained rigid demand purchases [22]. - **Output**: In February 2026, China's refined nickel output was 32,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.65%. The estimated output in March 2026 is 39,430 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.95% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54% [29]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 23,394.299 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,724 tons or 84.64%, and a year - on - year increase of 5,100 tons or 27.88%. The net import of refined nickel in this month was 10,097.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 525.23%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 231,188.825 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133,916 tons or 137.67%. In December 2025, China's refined nickel export volume was 13,296.309 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,370 tons or 21.69%, and a year - on - year decrease of 3,839 tons or 22.40% [33]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 2,892 tons to 284,658 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,912 tons to 63,681 tons, including 56,462 tons of futures inventory. The total inventory was 83,746 tons, an increase of 2,397 tons from the previous week [38]. 2.4. Nickel Iron Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of low - nickel iron decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton; the price of high - nickel iron increased by 10 yuan/nickel to 1,100 yuan/nickel [44]. - **Output**: In February 2026, China's nickel pig iron actual output was 21,100 tons in metal, a month - on - month decrease of 1.39%. The output of medium - and high - nickel pig iron was 16,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.59%; the output of low - nickel pig iron was 4,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.67% [46]. - **Import**: In December 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 101,000 tons or 11.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 1,000 tons or 0.1%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 1.1149 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 217,200 tons or 24.2% [49]. - **Inventory**: In February, the negotiable inventory of nickel iron was 178,300 physical tons, equivalent to 17,000 tons of nickel [52]. 2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions - **Price**: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four places) decreased by 25 yuan/ton this week. The prices in Wuxi, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained the same, while the price in Foshan decreased by 100 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Output**: In February, the stainless steel crude steel output was 2.71 million tons, including 818,300 tons of 200 - series, 572,300 tons of 400 - series, and 1.3194 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 29% [61]. - **Import and Export**: The latest data shows that the stainless steel import volume was 145,000 tons, and the export volume was 485,000 tons [64]. - **Inventory**: On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1425 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons. Among them, the inventory of 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons [67]. 2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - **Production and Sales of New Energy Vehicles**: In February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 694,000 and 765,000 respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively. From January to February, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9% respectively [72]. - **Power Battery**: In February, the total output of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. From January to February, the cumulative output was 309.7 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 48.8%. In February, the domestic power battery loading volume was 26.3 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 37.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6% [75]. 3. Technical Analysis On the daily K - line, the price fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average, and the downward trend of the 20 - day moving average has changed and started to run horizontally. The change in position is small, indicating a stalemate between long and short. The direction of the MACD indicator is unclear, and the KDJ is at a medium level. Technically, the price may continue to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [78]. 4. Industrial Chain Summary, Viewpoints and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints** - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral to bullish. The RKAB policy continues to have an impact, the demand in Indonesia provides strong support, and the mine quotations are firm [81]. - **Nickel Iron**: Neutral. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and the cost support is strong [81]. - **Refined Nickel**: Neutral to bearish. The output increases, and the inventory is at a high level [81]. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. The inventory decreases slightly but is still at a high level, and the consumption is weak [81]. - **New Energy**: Neutral. It is the off - season for consumption, and the output decreases significantly month - on - month [81]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average; the main contract of stainless steel will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and on Friday, they dropped significantly along with gold, silver, and copper. The overall spot trading volume was average. The supply has recovered, and the market is well - supplied. The sentiment in the nickel ore market is bullish, with strong support from the Philippines and Indonesia. Nickel - iron prices continue to rise, and the cost line has increased. Stainless - steel inventory has started to rise, and attention should be paid to potential price reversals. The refined nickel inventory remains at a high level, and the oversupply situation persists. Although the production and sales data of new - energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints** - **Shanghai Nickel**: This week, nickel prices fluctuated weakly, with sufficient supply in the market. The sentiment in the nickel ore market is bullish, nickel - iron prices are rising, the stainless - steel inventory is increasing, and the refined nickel inventory is high. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles have limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inventory has started to rise, and attention should be paid to potential price reversals. - **Strategies** - **Shanghai Nickel Main Contract**: It shows huge fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see. If it returns above the 20 - day moving average, consider going long. If the 20 - day moving average turns down, be cautious about a trend reversal [9]. - **Stainless Steel Main Contract**: It is in a downward adjustment. Try shorting with a small position, and stop loss if it returns above the 20 - day moving average [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Weekly Price Changes in the Industry Chain** - **Nickel Ore**: The prices of red - soil nickel ore (CIF) with NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% increase. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The prices of battery - grade and electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% increase. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong increased by 2.90% to 3550 yuan/ton, and the price of high - nickel iron in Shandong increased by 1.92% to 1060 yuan/nickel point. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.62% to 149500 yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai Russian nickel decreased by 2.59% to 142150 yuan/ton, and the Jinchuan ex - factory price decreased by 1.70% to 150100 yuan/ton. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel decreased by 0.17% to 15037.5 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market Conditions** - **Price**: The nickel ore price remained the same as last week, and the shipping cost was stable. - **Inventory**: On January 29, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 11.7234 million wet tons, a decrease of 562,800 wet tons or 4.58% from the previous period. - **Import**: In December 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million tons, a decrease of 1.3466 million tons or 40.33% from the previous month and an increase of 473,100 tons or 31.13% year - on - year. The total nickel ore import volume from January to December 2025 was 42.2634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.94%. This week, the quotes from Philippine mines continued to jump, and the sentiment was bullish. The situation in Indonesia also provided strong support [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions** - **Price**: Nickel prices fluctuated weakly, and the trading volume was average. - **Supply**: Factory production has recovered, and there is an abundance of imported goods, including low - cost nickel plates from Indonesia. - **Long - term and Medium - term Fundamentals**: The global nickel market is expected to remain in an oversupply situation under the dominance of low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. The growth of traditional demand such as stainless steel is weak, but the high - nickel trend in the new - energy field will provide key structural support. - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: The global nickel supply is expected to exceed demand in 2025, with a surplus of 120,000 nickel tons. - **Production**: In December 2025, China's refined nickel production was 29,058 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.39%. The estimated production in January 2026 was 31,220 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.02%. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's refined nickel import volume was 23,394.299 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,724 tons or 84.64% and a year - on - year increase of 5100 tons or 27.88%. The export volume was 13,296.309 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2370 tons or 21.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 3839 tons or 22.40%. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In December 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel physical production was 206,100 tons, and the metal production was 45,400 tons. The estimated production in January 2026 was 47,600 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04%. The quotes for battery - grade and electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel remained unchanged from last week. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 2556 tons to 286,284 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 4602 tons to 55,396 tons. The total social inventory of Shanghai nickel increased by 6622 tons to 69,238 tons [22][25][26][27][29][32][35][38]. - **Nickel - Iron Market Conditions** - **Price**: The price of low - nickel iron in Shandong increased by 100 yuan/ton to 3550 yuan/ton, and the price of high - nickel iron in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/nickel to 1060 yuan/nickel. - **Production**: In December 2025, China's nickel - pig iron actual production was 21,400 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14%. - **Import**: In December 2025, China's nickel - iron import volume was 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 101,000 tons or 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1000 tons or 0.1%. The total import volume from January to December 2025 was 11.149 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.172 million tons or 24.2%. - **Inventory**: In December, the negotiable inventory of nickel - iron was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 tons of nickel [43][44][46][49][52]. - **Stainless - Steel Market Conditions** - **Price**: The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four regions) decreased by 25 yuan/ton from last week. - **Production**: In December, the stainless - steel crude steel production was 3.2605 million tons, including 940,500 tons of 200 - series, 572,800 tons of 400 - series, and 1.7472 million tons of 300 - series, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. - **Import and Export**: The latest data shows that the stainless - steel import volume was 145,000 tons, and the export volume was 485,000 tons. - **Inventory**: On January 30, the inventory in Wuxi was 540,600 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 294,000 tons, and the national inventory was 952,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,100 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 616,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,200 tons [58][59][62][65][68]. - **New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales** - **Production and Sales**: In December, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and 7.2%. From January to December, the production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2%. - **Power Battery**: In December, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The domestic power - battery loading volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1% [72][75]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, nickel prices fluctuated at a high level and then suddenly dropped significantly, following the trend of non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The price fell below the 20 - day moving average. The position showed a certain decline, and long - position holders may have taken profits. The MACD formed a death cross, indicating a possible change in direction. It is necessary to be cautious. If the price can return above the 20 - day moving average, there may be further upside potential; otherwise, a trend reversal should be considered [78]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - **Fundamental Viewpoints** - **Nickel Ore**: Neutral to bullish. Mine quotes have been rising continuously, and Indonesia also provides strong support. - **Nickel - Iron**: Neutral to bullish. Nickel - iron prices continue to rise, and the cost line has moved up. - **Refined Nickel**: Neutral. In the short term, factory production has recovered, and there is an abundance of imported goods, with sufficient market supply and increasing inventory. - **Stainless Steel**: Neutral. The inventory has started to rise, and attention should be paid to the consumption situation before the Spring Festival. - **New - Energy**: Neutral. The production data is good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continues [81]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral Strategy** - **Shanghai Nickel Main Contract**: It shows huge fluctuations. It is advisable to wait and see. If it returns above the 20 - day moving average, consider going long. If the 20 - day moving average turns down, be cautious about a trend reversal. - **Stainless Steel Main Contract**: It is in a downward adjustment. Try shorting with a small position, and stop loss if it returns above the 20 - day moving average [83][84].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices continued to rise significantly. The main bulls did not take profits but engaged in high - selling and low - buying at high levels. Recently, some production capacities have cut production, reducing supply pressure. The nickel ore price is stable, the shipping volume is affected by weather, and mines have a strong bullish sentiment. The ferronickel price continues to rebound, and the cost line rises. The stainless steel inventory has declined and is short - term affected by nickel prices. The refined nickel inventory remains at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [6]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, prices continued to rise significantly, moving away from the moving averages. The long - position power was still strong with no sign of taking profits. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. The previous top support was effective, and short - sellers should mainly wait and see. If the price falls back to the previous box, they can consider short - selling [78]. Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Futures**: The nickel price is strong. Short - sellers should wait and see and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box [7]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: It is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend. Short - sellers should wait temporarily [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of laterite nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% change [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 3.23% to 27,200 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 3.36% to 30,750 yuan/ton [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased by 5.46% to 141,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai Russian nickel increased by 5.22% to 134,050 yuan/ton, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased by 6.68% to 142,100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Ferronickel**: According to MySteel data, the price of low - grade ferronickel in Shandong remained unchanged at 3,300 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade ferronickel increased by 1.65% to 925 yuan/nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - grade ferronickel decreased by 25.5 yuan/nickel to 930.5 yuan/nickel, and the price of low - grade ferronickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 1.19% to 13,762.5 yuan/ton [12]. 2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions - The nickel ore price remained stable this week, and the freight rate was the same as last week. As of December 25, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.7647 million wet tons, a decrease of 626,700 wet tons or 4.35% from the previous period. In November 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3434 million tons or 28.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 94,600 tons or 2.92%. Mines have a strong bullish sentiment, and the shipping volume is affected by weather. The downstream ferronickel price has improved, and the bargaining power has shifted upward [15]. 2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices continued to rise, and there was little receiving and shipping during the holiday. In the medium - to - long - term, the global nickel market is expected to maintain an oversupply pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. The traditional demand for stainless steel and other products has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.27%. The import volume was 12,670.512 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.07% and a year - on - year increase of 40.86%. The export volume was 10,926.086 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.06% and a year - on - year increase of 0.80%. The LME inventory decreased by 534 tons to 255,162 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 1,090 tons to 45,544 tons [21][28][31]. 2.4. Ferronickel Market Conditions - The ferronickel price continued to rebound. In November 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. The import volume was 895,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The inventory in November was 218,500 physical tons, equivalent to 22,500 tons of nickel [41][44][47]. 2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased this week. In November, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4931 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 1.82% month - on - month. The import volume was 112,100 tons, and the export volume was 405,300 tons. As of December 31, the national stainless steel inventory was 977,400 tons, a decrease of 27,700 tons from the previous period [55][59][62]. 2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. In November, the production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 53.2% of the total new vehicle sales [72]. 3. Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, prices continued to rise significantly, moving away from the moving averages. The long - position power was still strong with no sign of taking profits. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. The previous top support was effective, and short - sellers should mainly wait and see. If the price falls back to the previous box, they can consider short - selling [78]. 4. Industry Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Impact on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore has a neutral - to - bullish impact as the price is stable and mines are bullish; ferronickel has a neutral - to - bullish impact as the price rebounds and the cost line rises; refined nickel has a neutral impact as there is short - term production cut and reduced supply pressure, but the long - term oversupply pattern remains with high inventory; stainless steel has a neutral impact as the inventory declines and the cost rises; new energy has a neutral impact as the production data is good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continues [81]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the main nickel futures contract, the nickel price is strong, and short - sellers should wait and see and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box. For the main stainless steel futures contract, it is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend, and short - sellers should wait temporarily [83][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, nickel prices rose significantly due to concerns about raw material supply caused by Indonesia's quota issue. Some production capacities have recently cut production, reducing supply pressure [8]. - In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices partially dropped slightly, shipping freight decreased, and ore inventory was at a high level. With the arrival of the rainy season, ore supply decreased, and mines held firm on prices. Nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line increased. Stainless steel inventory declined and was short - term affected by nickel prices. Refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The nickel market is expected to maintain a supply - surplus pattern dominated by Indonesia's low - cost production capacity in the long - term. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. The industry will accelerate the elimination of high - cost production capacity at low prices, and the bottom of nickel prices will be anchored to the cost line of Indonesian nickel pig iron [26]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel**: The price of nickel is strong. Short - sellers should wait and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box range [8][9]. - **Stainless steel**: The stainless steel market will operate with a slight upward trend. Short - sellers should wait for the moment [10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes | Product | This Week | Last Week | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% | 54 | 54 | 0.00% | | Red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% | 47 | 48 | - 2.08% | | Battery - grade nickel sulfate | 26350 | 26350 | 0.00% | | Electro - plating grade nickel sulfate | 29750 | 29750 | 0.00% | | Low - nickel iron (Shandong) | 3300 | 3300 | 0.00% | | High - nickel iron (Shandong) (yuan/nickel point) | 910 | 895 | 1.68% | | Shanghai electrolytic nickel | 134550 | 123850 | 8.64% | | Shanghai Russian nickel | 127400 | 117600 | 8.33% | | Jinchuan ex - factory price | 133200 | 123600 | 7.77% | | 304 stainless steel | 13600 | 13437.5 | 1.21% | [13][14] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market - Some nickel ore prices dropped by 1 US dollar/wet ton this week, and shipping freight decreased by 1.5 US dollars/wet ton. - As of December 25, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.7647 million wet tons, a decrease of 626,700 wet tons or 4.35% from the previous period. - In November 2025, nickel ore imports were 3.3395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3434 million tons or 28.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 94,600 tons or 2.92%. From January to November 2025, the total nickel ore imports were 40.2704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.10%. - Nickel ore transactions were fair this week. With the arrival of the rainy season, mine shipments decreased significantly, and there was an expectation of rising ore prices. The rebound in downstream nickel iron prices eased the pressure on ore price reduction [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market - Nickel prices rose significantly this week, and downstream buyers were highly cautious. Some producers cut production, and imported supplies were tight, causing the spot premium to rise. The import window opened this week, and traders locked in prices. - In the long - and medium - term, the global nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide support. - In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.27%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production was 381,727 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 27.34%. - In November 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 12,670.512 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,929 tons or 30.07%, and a year - on - year increase of 3,676 tons or 40.86%. Exports were 10,926.086 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,741 tons or 20.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 87 tons or 0.80%. - LME nickel inventory increased by 1,146 tons to 255,696 tons, while SHFE inventory decreased by 826 tons to 44,454 tons [22][25][26][29][32][38]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market - According to MySteel data, low - nickel iron prices remained flat at 3,300 yuan/ton, and high - nickel iron prices rose by 15 yuan/nickel to 910 yuan/nickel. - In November 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production was 22,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. - In November 2025, China's nickel iron imports were 895,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons or 1.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 13,000 tons or 1.4%. From January to November 2025, the total imports were 10.153 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.171 million tons or 27.2%. - In November, the negotiable nickel iron inventory was 218,500 physical tons, equivalent to 22,500 tons of nickel [43][44][46][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market - The price of 304 stainless steel (average price of four regions) rose by 162.5 yuan/ton this week. - In November, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4931 million tons, of which the production of 200 - series was 1.042 million tons, 400 - series was 689,400 tons, and 300 - series was 1.7617 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.82%. - The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 112,100 tons, and exports were 405,300 tons. - As of December 26, the inventory in Wuxi was 570,900 tons, in Foshan was 283,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0051 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,000 tons. The inventory of 300 - series was 631,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,800 tons [57][58][61][64][68]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. In November, the production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, and the market share of new energy vehicles in total new vehicle sales reached 53.2%. - In November 2025, the production of power + energy - storage batteries in Chinese battery factories was 193 GWh. The total production of power + energy - storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rose significantly and moved away from the 20 - day moving average. In terms of positions, the long - side force was strong, and the position - increasing force was large, indicating a short - term strong trend. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. Short - sellers should wait and see if the previous top provides effective support. If the price falls back to the previous box range, they can consider short - selling [79]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Nickel ore**: Neutral to strong. Transactions were fair, and concerns about reduced raw material supply due to Indonesia's quota issue [82]. - **Nickel iron**: Neutral. Nickel iron prices rebounded, and the cost line moved up [82]. - **Refined nickel**: Neutral. Short - term production cuts reduced supply pressure, but the long - term oversupply pattern remained, and inventory was at a high level [82]. - **Stainless steel**: Neutral. Inventory declined, and costs increased [82]. - **New energy**: Neutral. Production data was good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continued [82].

Core Viewpoint - Lygend Resources (2245.HK) continues its upward trend, experiencing a significant increase of over 12%, with a total rise of over 40% over six days, reaching a new high of HKD 22.56 and a total market capitalization of HKD 35.1 billion [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Lygend Resources has established a complete industrial chain covering nickel ore trading, smelting production, equipment manufacturing, and sales [1] - The company has signed long-term trade and supply agreements with mining companies in the Philippines and Indonesia, enhancing its upstream operations [1] - The company has developed a total nickel production capacity of 400,000 metal tons on OBI Island, Indonesia, and is expanding into downstream products such as nickel sulfate and cobalt [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association recently announced a significant reduction in nickel ore production applications for 2026, with an estimated 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - CICC has indicated that Lygend's wet process capacity in Indonesia is expected to benefit from this industry shift, with potential for future expansion in the Indonesian nickel industry chain [1]

Group 1 - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) reported a significant decrease in nickel ore production target for 2026, set at approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - APNI Secretary General Medi Katrin Lengi explained that the reduction in production plans is aimed at preventing further declines in nickel prices [1] - Liqin Resources is identified as a leading global player in the nickel industry, covering the entire nickel supply chain from trading to smelting and equipment manufacturing [1] Group 2 - Liqin Resources' stock price increased by over 8%, reaching HKD 18.85, with a trading volume of HKD 59.16 million [2] - The stock performance reflects a positive market response, with an increase of 8.33% noted at the time of reporting [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Lygend Resources (02245) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 8%, reaching HKD 18.85 with a trading volume of HKD 59.16 million [1] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) reported a substantial decrease in the nickel ore production target for 2026, set at approximately 250 million tons, down from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - The APNI Secretary General, Medy Katrin Lengi, explained that the production plan is intentionally set lower than this year to prevent further declines in nickel prices [1] Group 2 - Lygend Resources is recognized as a leading player in the global nickel industry, covering the entire nickel supply chain [1] - The company has evolved from nickel ore trading to a comprehensive industrial operation, encompassing nickel ore trading, smelting production, equipment manufacturing, and sales [1]