Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The report predicts that the nickel and stainless - steel market will continue to fluctuate. The short - term price increase drive of the nickel ore is limited due to the rising inventory from the Philippines. The stainless - steel market is also in a volatile state, with weak demand suppressing the upside. The new energy chain maintains a production - to - order situation, and the downstream demand is average. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation between Indonesia and the US on nickel resources [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price Forecast and Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Management Strategy**: For inventory management, when the product sales price drops and there is a risk of inventory value decline, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures (60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2), sell call options (50% hedging ratio, strategy level 2), and buy far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan. For procurement management, when worried about raw material price increases, it is recommended to sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan [2]. 2. Core Contradiction - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel returns to a fluctuating state, and the macro - level sentiment fades. The inventory of nickel ore from the Philippines has increased, weakening the support for nickel ore. The short - term price increase drive of the ore end is limited. The transaction price of nickel iron has回调 again, and the latest transaction price of iron plants in August has moved up. The stainless - steel market also returns to a fluctuating state, with large factories still having the sentiment of reducing production, and weak demand suppressing the upside in the short term. The new energy chain maintains a production - to - order situation, and the downstream demand is average. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document and the negotiation between Indonesia and the US on nickel resources [3]. 3.利多 and 利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: The cobalt mine ban in Congo continues; Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula and add elements such as iron and cobalt; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the US may involve the follow - up trend of the nickel industry chain; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a growth work plan for industries such as steel and non - ferrous metals [4]. - **利空 Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and the inventory reduction is slow [4]. 4. Market Data - **Nickel Market**: The inventory of pure nickel is high, and the seasonal inventory of nickel ore has increased, weakening the bottom support. The price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 123,370 yuan/ton, and the price of LME nickel 3M is 15,530 US dollars/ton. The trading volume is 133,758 lots, and the open interest is 95,734 lots. The warehouse receipt number is 21,971 tons, with a decrease of 122 tons compared with the previous period [5]. - **Stainless - steel Market**: The price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,900 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 226,003 lots, and the open interest is 122,384 lots. The warehouse receipt number is 103,415 tons, with a decrease of 60 tons compared with the previous period [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 40,338 tons, an increase of 1,165 tons compared with the previous period; the LME nickel inventory is 205,872 tons, a decrease of 2,220 tons compared with the previous period; the stainless - steel social inventory is 982.7 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons compared with the previous period; the nickel pig iron inventory is 33,233 tons, a decrease of 4,301 tons compared with the previous period [7].

沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | 管理 | 值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | | | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面 提前采购锁定生产成本 | 远月沪镍合约 | 买入 | 依据采购 计划 | 3 | | 采购 管理 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担 心原料价格上涨 | 卖出看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 卖出 | 依据采购 计划 | 1 | | | | 买入虚值看涨期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | 依据采购 计划 | 3 | source： 南华研究 镍&不锈钢：宏观层面影响走势偏强 7月21日风险管理日报 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai nickel 2507 contract is expected to move in a weak and volatile manner, with support from the cost line below [2]. - The stainless steel 2507 contract is also expected to move in a weak and volatile manner [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: The external nickel price fluctuates between the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages. Last week, the nickel price continued to be weak. Rumors of increased quotas in Indonesia on Wednesday caused a rapid decline, but the cost line provided support, and downstream low - price transactions improved. The ore - end quotes remain firm, but downstream iron plants are in a loss situation with a production cut expectation, and stainless steel warehouse receipts continue to flow out. However, the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles are beneficial for nickel demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of nickel is 122,850, and the basis is 1,600, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory is 201,462 (an increase of 1,152), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts are 22,038 (a decrease of 19), showing a bearish signal [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Price Changes**: From May 30th to June 3rd, the Shanghai nickel main contract price increased from 120,480 to 121,250; the LME nickel price decreased from 15,510 to 15,475; the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price increased from 122,325 to 122,850; the 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased from 123,525 to 124,050; the 1 imported nickel price increased from 121,175 to 121,800; and the nickel bean price increased from 120,475 to 121,050 [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 30th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,075 tons, with the futures inventory at 22,057 tons (an increase of 120 tons in total inventory and a decrease of 361 tons in futures inventory). From May 30th to June 3rd, the LME nickel inventory increased from 199,380 to 201,462, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased from 22,057 to 22,038, and the total inventory increased from 221,437 to 223,500 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless steel price has declined. There is an expectation of a short - term correction in nickel ore prices, and the cost line may loosen. The nickel - iron price is weakly stable, and the stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continue to flow into the spot market [4]. - **Basis**: The average stainless steel price is 13,787.5, and the basis is 1,157.5, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts are 129,690 (a decrease of 300), showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Price Changes**: From May 30th to June 3rd, the stainless steel main contract price decreased from 12,690 to 12,630; the cold - rolled stainless steel index in Wuxi decreased from 12,510 to 12,460; the cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel price in Foshan decreased from 13,950 to 13,850, while prices in other regions remained unchanged [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: On May 30th, the inventory in Wuxi was 58,360 tons, in Foshan was 351,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,099,600 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 18,100 tons). The 300 - series inventory was 669,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 23,900 tons). From May 30th to June 3rd, the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased from 129,990 to 129,690 [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - The price of red soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 58.5 US dollars per wet ton; the price of red soil nickel ore CIF with Ni0.9% remained at 31 US dollars per wet ton. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) increased from 954 to 955 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,450 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 13,202 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost is 13,590 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost is 16,737 yuan [24]. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated nickel import price is 125,901 yuan per ton [27].