Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $85.00, indicating a potential upside of 38% from the current price of $61.77 [6]. Core Insights - Despite the antitrust investigation, the company's long-term competitive position remains strong, particularly in the mid-to-high-end travel market. The investigation is viewed as a manageable issue rather than a fundamental threat to the company's business model [8]. - The report highlights that the market has overreacted to the investigation, leading to a significant undervaluation of the company's stock, which is currently trading at a historical low valuation [8]. - The company is expected to see substantial revenue growth, with projected revenues increasing from $44.56 billion in 2023 to $79.92 billion by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.0% [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is reported at $44,562 million, with a year-on-year growth of 122.2%. Forecasts suggest revenues will reach $53,377 million in 2024 and $61,971 million in 2025 [7]. - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to grow from $9,518 million in 2023 to $23,142 million by 2027, with a significant increase of 635.5% in 2023 compared to the previous year [7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from $15.2 in 2023 to $34.9 in 2027, indicating strong profitability growth [7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a robust competitive moat in the online travel agency (OTA) sector, particularly in high-end hotel bookings and business travel, due to its strong brand trust and customer service policies [8]. - The report notes that the core issue in the online travel industry is supply overcapacity and scarce traffic, which creates high switching costs for suppliers reliant on the company for order conversion [8]. - The anticipated regulatory changes are expected to focus on promoting fair competition without undermining the company's fundamental business model, allowing it to maintain its market position [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company with a target price of $65.00, representing a potential upside of 13.4% from the current price of $57.30 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 61.1 billion in 2025, reflecting a 14.5% increase from 2024 [3][5]. - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to reach RMB 19.0 billion in 2025, showing a modest growth of 5.4% compared to 2024 [3][5]. - The company is experiencing robust domestic travel demand while also seeing a strong recovery in international travel, with outbound travel expected to grow significantly due to increased flight availability and relaxed visa processes [5][6]. - The report highlights the potential for inbound tourism growth, particularly from countries with visa-free access to China, with a projected booking increase of over 100% year-on-year [5][6]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 44.5 billion, a 122.2% increase year-on-year, and a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 9.5 billion, up 635.5% [3][6]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 81% in the coming years, with operating profit margins projected to remain around 24% [6][9]. - The balance sheet shows total assets of RMB 219.1 billion in 2023, with total liabilities of RMB 96.1 billion, indicating a healthy equity position [7][10]. Business Segments Performance - The company’s revenue from accommodation bookings, transportation ticketing, and vacation packages is expected to grow by 25.2%, 10.1%, and 38.1% respectively in 2024 [5][6]. - The international business segment, particularly Trip.com, is anticipated to contribute significantly to revenue, with a projected 70% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024 [5][6]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the strategic positioning of the company in emerging markets, aiming for market share growth despite potential short-term profit pressures due to international expansion [5][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from macroeconomic factors such as increased consumer spending in the tourism sector, supported by government initiatives like consumption vouchers [5][6].