Core Viewpoint - U.S. stocks are starting the new year with strong momentum, driven by easing inflation, improving growth expectations, and positive earnings forecasts, particularly influenced by advancements in artificial intelligence [2][3] Market Overview - The stock market has experienced volatility due to trade concerns, policy uncertainty, and changing interest rate expectations, but has shown resilience with cooling inflation and better-than-expected earnings [3] - Heavy investments in AI, data centers, and cloud infrastructure are providing a strong underlying support for the market [3] Investment Strategy - A relative price strength strategy is recommended, focusing on stocks that are outperforming the market, as they are likely to continue their upward trend [4] - Stocks such as Jabil Inc. (JBL), Ciena Corporation (CIEN), Commercial Metals Company (CMC), and Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA) are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Stock Screening Parameters - Stocks should be evaluated based on their earnings, valuation ratios, and relative price performance compared to peers and industry averages [5][6] - Stocks that outperform their respective industries or benchmarks are more likely to yield significant returns [6] - A focus on stocks with positive earnings revisions and strong fundamentals is essential for identifying growth potential [7][8] Featured Stocks - **Jabil Inc. (JBL)**: Market cap over $25 billion, expected EPS growth of 18.5% year-over-year for fiscal 2026, shares up 58% in a year [12] - **Ciena Corporation (CIEN)**: Expected EPS growth rate of 41.8% over three to five years, shares up 191.2% in a year, with a fiscal 2026 EPS estimate indicating 97.7% growth [13][14] - **Commercial Metals Company (CMC)**: Market cap of $8 billion, expected EPS growth of 125.2% for fiscal 2026, shares up 42.4% in a year [15] - **Plains All American Pipeline LP (PAA)**: Market cap nearly $13 billion, with a 6.8% upward revision in earnings estimates for 2026, shares up 3.6% in a year [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The previous bullish thesis on Enbridge (ENB) has not performed well, showing a -3% total return since early October, indicating potential underperformance in share price [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Enbridge's share price has experienced a decline of -3% since early October, suggesting challenges in maintaining investor confidence [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has over a decade of experience in finance, particularly in the oilfield and real estate industries, and has led complex due diligence and M&A transactions [1] - The analyst has developed an interest in equity research and provides services for a Dubai-based family office with over $20 million in assets under management [1] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of analyzing financial statements, evaluating market trends, and identifying growth drivers across various industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The previous bullish thesis on Enbridge (ENB) has not performed well, showing a -3% total return since early October, indicating potential underperformance in share price [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Enbridge's share price has experienced a decline of -3% since early October, suggesting challenges in maintaining investor confidence [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The analyst has over a decade of experience in finance, particularly in the oilfield and real estate industries, and has led complex due diligence and M&A transactions [1] - The analyst has developed an interest in equity research and provides services for a Dubai-based family office with over $20 million in assets under management [1] - The analyst emphasizes the importance of analyzing financial statements, evaluating market trends, and identifying growth drivers across various industries [1]

Key Takeaways ET to expand the Transwestern Desert Southwest project, raising capacity using larger 48-inch pipelines.Natural gas demand in Arizona and New Mexico is rising due to population growth and data center development.The project's estimated total cost is $5.6 billion, supported by long-term shipping contracts.Energy Transfer LP (ET) announced plans to expand the Transwestern Pipeline as part of its Desert Southwest expansion project. The company will increase the pipeline diameter to 48 inches from ...

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer has decided to suspend the development of its Lake Charles LNG project, which has faced numerous challenges over the past decade, despite having secured commercial agreements and nearing a Final Investment Decision (FID) [1][2][4]. Group 1: Project Challenges - The Lake Charles LNG project was designed to liquefy and export 16.5 million metric tons per annum but has encountered obstacles such as difficult marketing conditions, loss of joint venture partner Shell, intense competition, and permitting issues [4]. - The company aimed to sell down 80% of its interest to equity partners before moving forward, but has only secured a 30% stake from MidOcean Energy, leaving 50% interest unsold [7]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - Energy Transfer is shifting its focus to capital allocation for its growing backlog of natural gas pipeline infrastructure projects, which present better risk/reward profiles compared to Lake Charles LNG [8]. - The company has announced an increase in the transportation capacity of the Transwestern Pipeline's Desert Southwest expansion project, now planning a 48-inch pipeline with a capacity of up to 2.3 billion cubic feet per day at a cost of $5.6 billion [9]. Group 3: Financial Outlook - Energy Transfer expects its 2026 capital spending to rise to $5.2 billion, an increase of $200 million from its initial budget, allowing for multiple expansions including the Hugh Brinson Pipeline [10]. - The company is also working on several other projects, including potential expansions of the Dakota Access Pipeline, which is on track for an FID by mid-next year [11]. Group 4: Investment Discipline - The company is adopting a more disciplined approach to project approvals, focusing on the best investment opportunities to avoid financial strain, which has led to the suspension of the Lake Charles LNG project [13].

Summary of ONEOK Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: ONEOK - **Key Executives Present**: - Pierce Norton, President and CEO - Walt Hulse, EVP and Chief Financial Officer - Sheridan Swords, EVP, Chief Commercial Officer Strategic Shifts - ONEOK has undergone significant strategic shifts over the past few years, diversifying its pipeline concentration and reducing natural gas exposure while increasing its presence in refined products and crude NGLs [3][4][6] - The acquisition of Magellan was pivotal, transitioning from a supply push to a demand pull model, enhancing cash flow stability and allowing for sustained earnings with minimal capital [4][5] - Subsequent acquisitions, including EnLink and Medallion, were strategically sequenced to enhance connectivity and operational efficiency across their assets [5][6] Synergies and Financial Performance - ONEOK has identified $700 million to $1.1 billion in synergies from its acquisitions, with approximately 80% of expected synergies from the Magellan acquisition already realized [8][9] - The company has successfully executed small capital projects yielding high returns, such as spending $12 million to generate $30 million in EBITDA [9][10] - The integration of assets has allowed for improved operational control and efficiency, particularly in the NGL system [11][12] Market Outlook - The U.S. is projected to produce approximately 13.5 million barrels of oil daily, with significant growth expected in the Permian Basin, which will drive natural gas and liquids production [15][41] - The LNG capacity in the Gulf Coast is expected to reach 30 BCF per day by 2030, indicating a strong demand for natural gas from regions like the Permian and Haynesville [15][16] - The Bakken region is anticipated to see low single-digit growth in gas production, while the Rockies are expected to maintain stable crude oil production levels [18][20] Capital Expenditure and Growth Drivers - ONEOK's growth into 2026 is driven by completed projects and expansions, including the Bison Pipeline and Denver expansion of refined products pipeline [30][31] - The company has adjusted its outlook for 2026 due to a decrease in crude prices from $75 to $60, leading to a more cautious approach from producers [32][33] M&A Strategy - ONEOK remains open to M&A opportunities but is currently in a position to be patient and selective, having built a strong asset mix and identified potential targets [34][35] - The company emphasizes intentionality in its M&A strategy, ensuring that any future acquisitions align with its existing operational framework [35] Competitive Landscape - The wellhead-to-water strategy aims to control the entire process from gas production to market delivery, enhancing competitive positioning [36][39] - The Permian Basin is recognized as the most competitive area for natural gas and NGLs, with ongoing investments in pipeline and fractionation capacity [52][53] Conclusion - ONEOK is strategically positioned for growth through its diversified asset base, successful integration of acquisitions, and a strong focus on operational efficiency and market demand dynamics. The company is prepared to navigate the evolving energy landscape while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and M&A activities.

Core Insights - Pembina Pipeline Corporation (PBA) is a leading energy transportation and midstream service provider in North America, focusing on the transportation, storage, and processing of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids [1][2] - The company plays a crucial role in the energy sector by providing essential infrastructure that ensures the timely delivery of energy resources, making it integral to the entire supply chain [2] - Pembina's consistent focus on innovation and operational excellence contributes significantly to Canada's energy security and drives economic growth [3] Financial Performance - PBA reported a solid fiscal third quarter with adjusted EBITDA of C$1,034 million, reflecting a 1% year-over-year increase, indicating resilience in core operations [7] - The company has narrowed its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of C$4.25-C$4.35 billion, showcasing management's confidence in predictable cash flows despite market volatility [7] - The revenue model is predominantly fee-based and long-term contracted, providing reliable visibility for investors [7] Long-Term Contracting Success - PBA has secured long-term contracts on the Peace and Alliance pipelines, locking in extended take-or-pay revenues [8][9] - A recent agreement for 50,000 barrels per day on the Peace Pipeline system has a weighted average term of approximately 10 years, ensuring high utilization rates [9] - Approximately 96% of the firm capacity on the Alliance Pipeline has been contracted for 10-year tolls, further de-risking the base business [9] Strategic Growth Initiatives - Pembina has signed a pivotal 20-year agreement with PETRONAS for 1 million tons per annum of capacity at the Cedar LNG facility, validating its LNG export strategy [10] - The Cedar LNG project is on track for a late-2028 in-service date, with a synthetic tolling structure that allows for market upside [10] - The Greenlight project, a proposed 1.8-gigawatt natural gas-fired power generation facility, diversifies Pembina's customer base and creates incremental demand for its services [11] Market Performance and Risks - PBA has underperformed in the year-to-date period, with a growth of only 7.1%, lagging behind the Oil & Gas Production and Pipelines sub-industry, which grew by 11.9% [12][13] - The reduced midpoint of the full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance reflects expectations of "a little less optionality" in the marketing business [16] - Major growth projects like Cedar LNG and Greenlight involve long gestation periods and execution risks, which could limit near-term cash flow [18][19]

Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) market is expanding globally, but the U.S. faces complexities due to policy changes and market dynamics [1] - California is balancing the need for clean transportation with consumer affordability, especially as it prepares for refinery closures [3][4] - The proposed Western Gateway Pipeline aims to connect the Midwest to California, potentially supplying 200,000 barrels per day of refined products [6][8] Industry Dynamics - California's gasoline prices are the highest in the U.S., currently averaging $4.63 per gallon compared to the national average of $3.10 [4] - The state is experiencing a critical trade-off between reducing gasoline dependency and maintaining affordable fuel prices [3] - The pipeline project is seen as a response to California's unique fuel market challenges, which rely heavily on imports and local supplies [5][6] Company Actions - Phillips 66 and Kinder Morgan are leading the Western Gateway Pipeline project, which is expected to be operational by 2029 pending approvals [6][17] - The pipeline would reverse existing lines to facilitate east-to-west flow, enhancing supply resilience against disruptions [7][14] - California's government has approved new oil well drilling to attract oil companies, indicating ongoing reliance on fossil fuels despite decarbonization goals [7][14] Market Implications - The pipeline could mitigate price spikes caused by refinery disruptions, as seen in recent incidents affecting supply [13][14] - Experts suggest that increased supply could help lower fuel prices, although global crude oil prices will still play a significant role [10] - The project reflects a belief among energy companies that California will remain dependent on gasoline for the foreseeable future [14][20]

Core Viewpoint - South Bow Corp. reported its third-quarter 2025 financial and operational results, highlighting stable performance and providing an outlook for 2026, with a focus on financial strength and growth opportunities [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $461 million, with a net income of $93 million ($0.45/share) [5][8]. - Normalized EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $254 million, a 2% increase from Q2 2025, driven by maintenance capital expenditures [5][8]. - Distributable cash flow reached $236 million, an increase of $69 million from Q2 2025, attributed to changes in U.S. tax legislation and tax optimization efforts [5][8]. - Total long-term debt remained stable at $5.8 billion, with a net debt of $4.8 billion, maintaining a net debt-to-normalized EBITDA ratio of 4.6 times as of September 30, 2025 [5][8]. - Dividends declared totaled $104 million or $0.50/share during Q3 2025, with a quarterly dividend of $0.50/share approved for payment on January 15, 2026 [5][8]. Operational Performance - Average throughput on the Keystone Pipeline was approximately 584,000 bbl/d in Q3 2025, with the U.S. Gulf Coast segment averaging about 703,000 bbl/d [5][8]. - The Blackrod Connection Project achieved mechanical completion and is on track for commercial service in early 2026, with expected cash flow increases in the latter half of 2026 and into 2027 [5][8]. - Remedial actions related to the Milepost 171 incident are ongoing, with six in-line inspections and 37 integrity digs completed to date [5][8]. Returns to Shareholders - The company declared dividends totaling $104 million in Q3 2025, maintaining a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [5][8]. - The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.50/share, reinforcing the company's focus on sustainable shareholder returns [5][8]. 2026 Outlook - South Bow's 2026 guidance projects normalized EBITDA of approximately $1.03 billion, with about 90% secured through committed arrangements [10][22]. - The company anticipates a modest increase in its net debt-to-normalized EBITDA ratio through 2026, reflecting ongoing investments and one-time separation costs [10][22]. - Distributable cash flow for 2026 is expected to be around $655 million, influenced by higher anticipated current taxes compared to 2025 [10][22].

Core Insights - TC Energy Corporation (TRP) reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 56 cents per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but down from 76 cents in the same period last year, primarily due to weak performance in the Power and Energy Solutions segment [1] - The company's quarterly revenues reached $3.7 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by $49 million, although this represents a 10.1% decrease year over year [2] Financial Performance - Comparable EBITDA for TC Energy was C$2.7 billion, down from C$2.8 billion in the prior year and missing the estimate of C$2.8 billion [2] - The board declared a quarterly dividend of 85 Canadian cents per common share, translating to an annualized rate of $3.40 [3] Segment Performance - Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines reported a comparable EBITDA of C$913 million, an 8% increase from the previous year, driven by contributions from Coastal GasLink, but missed the estimate of C$979 million [4] - U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines reported a comparable EBITDA of C$1,062 million, a 6% increase year over year, primarily due to higher earnings from Columbia Gas and increased transportation rates [6][7] - Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines saw a comparable EBITDA of C$416 million, up 57% from C$265 million in the prior year, exceeding the estimate of C$314.2 million, driven by higher earnings from TGNH following the completion of the Southeast Gateway pipeline [9][10] - Power and Energy Solutions reported a comparable EBITDA of C$266 million, down 18.4% from C$326 million in the previous year, missing the estimate of C$328 million, mainly due to lower contributions from Bruce Power and reduced power prices [11] Operational Metrics - Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines averaged deliveries of 23.0 Bcf/d, a 2% increase year over year, with NGTL system receipts averaging 14.0 Bcf/d, reflecting a 1% increase [5] - U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines maintained average daily flows of 26.3 Bcf/d, unchanged from the previous year, with LNG-related activity increasing to an average of 3.7 Bcf/d, a 15% year-over-year rise [8] Capital Expenditures and Guidance - As of September 30, 2025, TC Energy's capital investments totaled C$1.5 billion, with cash and cash equivalents of C$1.8 billion and long-term debt of C$44.4 billion, resulting in a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 59.5% [13] - The company expects 2025 comparable EBITDA to be between C$10.8 billion and C$11 billion, with capital expenditures trending toward the lower end of the $6.1 billion to $6.6 billion guidance [14] - Looking ahead to 2026, TC Energy anticipates EBITDA to rise to C$11.6 billion to C$11.8 billion, indicating a 6-8% year-over-year increase [15]