Accessible version China Consumer (H/A) Is China still under-consuming? Myth vs. truth Industry Overview Stats speak! China is NOT that under-consuming Investors believing in China's under-consumption may struggle to explain the weakness since 2022, though China is still one of the world's fastest growing major economies. In our view, nominal value comparisons only tell part of the story. Our quantitative study reveals two facts. 1) China's per capita volume consumption is comparable to global peers, not on ...

Core Viewpoint - Booking Holdings reported strong Q3 2025 earnings, beating estimates and showing significant year-over-year growth in both earnings per share and revenues, indicating robust operational performance and positive market trends [2][13]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 earnings per share were $99.5, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.6% and increasing 18.6% year over year [2]. - Revenues reached $9.01 billion, surpassing estimates by 3.12% and growing 12.7% year over year, with an 8% increase on a constant currency basis [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA rose 15% year over year to approximately $4.2 billion, exceeding guidance by 6 percentage points, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 110 basis points to 47% [13]. Revenue Breakdown - Merchant revenues accounted for $6.13 billion (68.1% of total revenues), up 23.3% year over year [5]. - Agency revenues were $2.57 billion (28.5% of total revenues), down 6.7% year over year [5]. - Advertising & Other revenues totaled $308 million (3.4% of total revenues), increasing 14.5% year over year [5]. Operational Highlights - Room nights reached 323 million, an 8.2% increase year over year, driven by strong demand across major regions, particularly in the United States [6]. - Alternative accommodations listings grew to over 8.6 million, up about 10% year over year, with double-digit room night growth [7]. - Connected Trip transactions grew mid-20% year over year, representing a low double-digit percentage of total transactions [8]. Cost and Expense Management - Marketing expenses increased 8.8% year over year, accounting for 4.7% of gross bookings, slightly lower than the previous year [9][10]. - Sales and other expenses as a percentage of gross bookings were 2.1%, slightly higher than the prior year, driven by an increasing merchant mix [11]. - Adjusted fixed operating expenses rose 10% year over year, influenced by increased cloud costs and personnel expenses [12]. Guidance and Outlook - For Q4 2025, room night growth is expected between 4% and 6%, with gross bookings projected to grow 11-13% [15]. - Full-year 2025 guidance anticipates room night growth of around 7%, gross bookings growth of 11-12%, and revenue growth of approximately 12% [16]. - The stock has a strong Growth Score of A and a momentum score of A, indicating positive investor sentiment [18].

Norwalk, Connecticut-based Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) is the world’s leading provider of online travel and related services. With a market cap of $158.1 billion, Booking’s operations span over 220 countries and territories across the Americas, Indo-Pacific, EMEA, and Oceania. Companies worth $10 billion or more are generally described as "large-cap stocks." Booking fits this bill perfectly. Given the company's widespread operations across the globe, its valuation above this mark is not surprising. Booki ...

Trip.com Group Ltd - Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group Ltd (TCOM) - **Industry**: Online Travel Agency (OTA) - **Market Focus**: Asia Pacific, excluding China and India Key Points Industry and Market Position - Trip.com aims to become the number one player in Asia (excluding China and India) in terms of market share, which is considered a challenging yet achievable target [2] - The company is currently the market leader in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Thailand, and is rapidly gaining market share in Korea and Japan [2] - The APAC travel market is expected to grow, with online penetration increasing, providing a favorable environment for Trip.com [2] Financial Performance and Projections - Trip.com anticipates that by 2030, international and outbound business will contribute to 50% of its revenue [2] - Revenue growth projections indicate a slowdown from over 55% in 2025 to around 25% by 2030 [2] - The company expects year-over-year margin improvements for both domestic and overseas operations, although mixed revenue sources may introduce uncertainty [4] Strategic Initiatives - Trip.com has a structured approach to entering new markets, focusing first on product and localization, followed by performance-based marketing, and then brand marketing once a market share of 2-5% is achieved [3] - The company prioritizes branding and service quality over pricing, believing its pricing is competitive [2] - A significant marketing push has been noted, which has positively impacted overseas expansion efforts [1] Competitive Landscape - Concerns regarding competition from Alibaba's Fliggy are downplayed, with Trip.com’s strong supply chain control seen as a competitive advantage [5] - The company is positioned to achieve profitability levels similar to global peers, potentially exceeding them if the revenue mix favors accommodation [3] Financial Metrics - Current stock price (as of November 25, 2025): US$70.30 - Price target set at US$86.00, indicating a potential upside of 22% [7] - Projected revenue growth from Rmb 53,294 million in FY25 to Rmb 77,641 million in FY27, with a net profit forecast of Rmb 32,156 million in FY25 [31] Risk Factors - Risks include rising competition in the domestic market, uncertainties related to the pandemic, and macroeconomic slowdowns that could affect travel demand [50] - The company is also exposed to foreign exchange headwinds, which could impact profitability [51] Investment Thesis - Trip.com is viewed as uniquely positioned to benefit from multiple growth engines, including domestic travel, outbound travel, and international expansion [39] - The company has announced a US$5 billion share repurchase program, representing over 10% of its market cap at the time of announcement, which is seen as a positive signal for investors [39] Conclusion - Trip.com Group Ltd is strategically positioned for growth in the APAC travel market, with a focus on enhancing its market share and profitability through targeted marketing and operational efficiencies. The company’s financial outlook remains positive, despite potential risks from competition and macroeconomic factors.

Core Insights - The U.S. holiday season is expected to see robust consumer spending, particularly from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, despite ongoing inflationary pressures [1][7] Retail Industry Overview - U.S. holiday season sales are projected to reach $253.4 billion, reflecting a 5.3% year-over-year increase [4] - The Cyber week, which includes Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday, is anticipated to generate $43.7 billion, accounting for 17.2% of total holiday sales, marking a 6.3% increase from the previous year [5] - Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to hit $6.4 billion, while Cyber Monday is projected to generate $14.2 billion, up 6.3% year-over-year [6] Online Sales Growth - Online sales are expected to grow significantly, with mobile and online platforms projected to account for 56.1% of overall holiday season sales [6] Selected Retail Stocks - **Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 29.7% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 2 [9] - **Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 24.6% for next year, currently holding a Zacks Rank 1 [11] - **Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 20.5% for the current year, with a Zacks Rank 2 [12] - **Tapestry (TPR)**: Expected earnings growth rate of 10.4% for the current year, currently holding a Zacks Rank 2 [14] Earnings Estimate Revisions - All selected stocks have seen positive earnings estimate revisions in the past 60 days, indicating strong potential for solid returns [3][10]

Core Insights - Yatra Online, Inc. has announced a strategic leadership transition to enhance its growth trajectory, elevating co-founder Dhruv Shringi to Executive Chairman and appointing Siddhartha Gupta as the new CEO effective November 25, 2025 [1][3][5] Leadership Transition - Dhruv Shringi, who has been the CEO since the company's inception, will now focus on long-term vision, global expansion, and shareholder value creation as Executive Chairman [2][4] - Siddhartha Gupta brings over 25 years of experience in enterprise technology and B2B SaaS, with a strong background in scaling businesses and driving digital transformation [3][4] Strategic Focus - The leadership change aims to consolidate Yatra's position in India and explore new international growth opportunities, aligning with the company's B2B-first strategy [4][5] - Yatra has onboarded 148 new corporate clients in the past 12 months, representing an annual potential business worth over ₹700 crores, highlighting its strong growth in the corporate travel segment [4] Company Overview - Yatra Online, Inc. is India's largest corporate travel services provider, with over 1,300 large corporate customers and approximately 59,000 registered SME customers, making it the third largest online travel company in India by gross booking revenue [8]

Core Insights - The first systematic "AI Travel Assistant Evaluation System" has been released, with Feizhu's "Ask One" scoring 724.92 points, ranking first among various AI travel assistants [1] - The evaluation framework was developed by an expert team from Beijing International Studies University, focusing on five dimensions: usability, ease of use, personalization, safety, and fluency [1] - The travel AI industry is still in its early growth stage, characterized by strengths in content recommendation but weaknesses in execution [1] Group 1: Evaluation Results - Feizhu's "Ask One" leads in three out of nine evaluation scenarios, including activity and play recommendations, dining recommendations, and shopping point recommendations [2] - The gap between general large model products and OTA platform AI applications is nearly 100 points, indicating a significant difference in technical implementation and resource integration [2] - In eight functional indicators, Feizhu's "Ask One" ranks first in six areas, including demand-driven capability and voice interaction ability [2] Group 2: Industry Trends - The expert team identifies three major application trends for future travel AI: comprehensive application of multimodal interaction, real-time dynamic planning and optimization, and deep integration of AI agents [2] - Feizhu's "Ask One" has explored the integration of AI with its complete travel ecosystem, providing a practical case for how OTAs can leverage AI to enhance core business operations [2]

Core Insights - Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) has been recognized as one of the 15 Best Stocks to Buy for the Medium Term [1] - Mizuho analyst raised the price target for Expedia to $270 from $240 while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing strong earnings and positive sales growth guidance for Q4 [2] - In fiscal Q4 2025, Expedia reported revenue of over $4.4 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, surpassing Wall Street expectations [3] - Earnings per share reached $7.57, which is 23% higher than the previous year and 9% above estimates, with booked room nights growing 11% year-over-year [3] - The company experienced margin expansion of over 2 points due to operational discipline and volume leverage, and sees AI as a significant opportunity for future efficiency improvements [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q4 2025 was reported at just over $4.4 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $4.3 billion [3] - Earnings per share were reported at $7.57, which is 23% higher than the previous year [3] - Booked room nights increased by 11% year-over-year, marking the fastest growth in over three years [3] Strategic Outlook - Expedia guided for mid- to high-single-digit sales growth in Q4 and further margin expansion anticipated in 2026 [2] - The company highlighted the potential of AI to enhance operational efficiency and effectiveness over time [4]

Core Viewpoint - Trip.com Group reported strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenue growth driven by various business segments and a reduction in sales and marketing expenses, leading to an increase in profit forecasts and target price [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached Rmb 18.4 billion, representing a 16% year-over-year increase [1]. - Non-GAAP operating profit for the same period was Rmb 6.1 billion, exceeding expectations due to lower-than-expected sales and marketing expense ratios [1]. - The company raised its 2025 non-GAAP EPS forecast from Rmb 27.8 to Rmb 45.4, primarily due to investment gains from MakeMyTrip [1]. Business Segment Performance - Accommodation reservation revenue increased by 18% year-over-year [2]. - Transportation ticketing revenue grew by 12% [2]. - Packaged-tour revenue saw a 3% increase [2]. - Corporate travel revenue rose by 15% [2]. - Other business revenue surged by 34% [2]. - Overall reservations on the Trip.com brand increased by over 60% year-over-year, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling and outbound hotel and air ticket bookings up 140% compared to 2019 levels [2]. Market Outlook - The company maintains a Buy rating, reflecting optimism about its leading position in China's online travel industry and potential for market share growth internationally [3]. - The target price has been raised from HK$ 618 to HK$ 657, indicating a 21% upside [1].

Core Insights - Tripadvisor's annual Winter Travel Index indicates a significant increase in winter travel demand, with 60% of travelers planning trips and 45% traveling more than last year [1][2] - Cost remains a primary consideration for travelers, yet over half (52%) are expected to spend more this year despite economic uncertainties [2] Travel Preferences - Travelers are divided in their destination choices, with major cold-weather cities like New York City and London competing with warm-weather destinations such as Cancun and Bangkok [3][5] - U.S. travelers show a preference for both cold and warm destinations, favoring New York City and sunny international locations, particularly in Mexico [3][7] Travel Behavior and Activities - A strong emphasis on activities and experiences is noted, with 93% of travelers considering experiences important to their travel budget and 84% prioritizing planned activities [4][8] - Cultural sightseeing is the most popular travel activity at 38%, followed by nature sightseeing (37%), shopping (31%), and road trips (28%) [4] Generational Trends - Travel behaviors vary significantly by age group, with Gen Z and Millennials showing a higher preference for activities compared to older generations [11] - Younger travelers are more likely to plan ambitious itineraries, with nearly one-third visiting three or more cities during their biggest winter trip [11] Seasonal Influences - Seasonal factors influence 86% of winter travel decisions, with a focus on family connections and cultural experiences during the holiday season [13]