新力量 New Force 第一上海研究部 总第 4845 期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 星期二 研究观点 research@firstshanghai.com 第一上海证券有限公司 www.mystockhk.com 咨询热线：400-882-1055 服务邮箱：Service@firstshanghai.com 网址：www.mystockhk.com 【公司评论】 腾讯控股（700.HK）：周报 第一上海证券有限公司 香港中环德辅道中 71 号永安集团大厦 19 楼 第一上海 新力量 New Force 股价表现 +852 2532 1539 腾讯控股（700.HK）：周报 游戏：腾讯科隆展集中展示新游成果 【公司评论】 李京霖 + 852 2532 1957 Alexandra.lyu@ firstshanghai.com.hk Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk | 行业 | TMT | | --- | --- | | 股价 | 600 港元 | | 市值 | 5.416 万亿港元 | | 总股本 | 91.71 亿 | | 52 周高/低 | 620 港元/360 ...

人民财讯8月22日电，腾讯元宝现已正式接入DeepSeek V3.1最新版。相比上一代，DeepSeek V3.1-Think 能在更短的时间内给出答案。 ...

生成式AI 一、 全新Pixel 10「全家桶」火力全开，全系Gemini加持 1. 谷歌发布Pixel 10系列四款机型，搭载Tensor G5芯片和Gemini Nano模型，强调AI深度整合成为标志性特点； 2. 新机型配备多项AI功能：Gemini Live语音助手、Voice Translate实时语音翻译、Nano Banana照片编辑器和 Camera Coach摄影导师等； 3. Pro Res Zoom支持高达100倍智能变焦，Magic Cue智能信息提示自动从Gmail和日历中提取内容，谷歌宣告"传 统智能手机时代终结"。 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/M7NZWAuZnIB4iywKWzIJ6w 二、 官宣：DeepSeek-V3.1 发布，迈向 Agent 时代的第一步 1. DeepSeek正式发布V3.1模型，采用混合推理架构同时支持思考与非思考模式，思考效率和Agent能力均有显著提 升； 2. 新模型在编程智能体测评SWE和搜索智能体测评上取得明显进步，并在保持性能的前提下减少20%-50%的输出 token； 3. 模型全面开源，采用UE8M0 FP ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of AI-generated eating broadcasts (AI Mukbang) is not just a novelty but represents a new wealth opportunity, showcasing strong addictive qualities and becoming a significant source of income for content creators [6][7][8]. Group 1: AI Mukbang Phenomenon - AI Mukbang videos have gained immense popularity, with some accounts rapidly amassing hundreds of thousands of followers within days, creating significant traffic miracles [7][11]. - The hashtag AI ASMR on platforms like Xiaohongshu has over 5,000 notes, with related topics exceeding 1 million views, indicating high engagement levels [11]. - Creators are leveraging AI tools to produce content that transcends traditional eating broadcasts, allowing for imaginative scenarios that captivate viewers [24][25]. Group 2: Monetization Strategies - Content creators are monetizing their AI Mukbang videos through platform incentives and by selling AI prompt templates, which have become a valuable commodity in the ecosystem [17][21]. - A TikTok creator has reportedly earned their first income by selling a four-sentence prompt for $9.9, demonstrating the lucrative nature of prompt selling [17]. - Companies like PromptBase are emerging, allowing users to purchase prompts for $1.99, with the platform taking a 20% commission on transactions [21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current landscape shows that companies creating AI tools are not profiting as much as those selling the tools, indicating a shift in the monetization model within the AI content creation space [28]. - For instance, Kuaishou reported over 150 million yuan in revenue from its AI tool, Keling, highlighting the financial potential of AI-generated content [28]. - The user base for Keling has surpassed 45 million, with a significant portion of revenue coming from professional users who are willing to pay for advanced features [29].

以下文章来源于略大参考 ，作者江源 略大参考 . 新消费 · 新科技 · 新生活 AI吃播展现出了很强的成瘾性，成为很多人的助眠视频，一些账号短短几天内获得十几万粉。创下了 一个又一个流量奇迹。即便单靠平台流量激励，也能创造一笔不菲的收入。更何况他们还可以当"卖 铲人"，教其他人制作视频。 来源 丨略大参考（ID： hyzibenlun ） 作者丨 江源 编辑丨 杨知潮 图源丨AI生成 在AI面前，最强的大胃王也要自愧不如。 在最新爆火的AI的吃播里，什么都可以成为食物：既有一口咬开手办loopy，也有吃起来嘎嘣脆的钻 石披萨、水晶鸡腿等。不同于常规吃播，这些视频都是通过AI技术合成的，也被称为"沉浸式吃播 ASMR"。 这可不止是个好玩的游戏，它是一个新的财富密码。 这影响的不止是小主播的命运，还有大厂，毕竟如果创作者赚不到钱，大厂的商业模式就很难成立 了。 OpenAI还没赚钱，AI吃播已经赚钱 2024年初，作为视频领域的ChatGPT，Sora一出生就把全世界的目光锁定在自己身上，成为文生视 频这一赛道的开创者。 Sora是火了，但根据《The Information》在2024年的报道中披露，Ope ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Outperform" with an expected industry index increase of over 5% in the next six months [49]. Core Insights - Tencent's FY25Q2 revenue reached 184.5 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 178.9 billion CNY [4][14]. - Coreweave's FY25Q2 revenue was 1.21 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 207%, surpassing the expected 1.08 billion USD [18]. - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in model capabilities and applications, particularly in China and overseas [7][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Tencent's gross profit for FY25Q2 was 105 billion CNY, up 22.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 98.8 billion CNY [4][14]. - Coreweave's remaining performance obligations reached 30.1 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 86%, surpassing the expected 14.9 billion USD [18][22]. AI Developments - Tencent's AI initiatives have significantly enhanced user experience and operational efficiency, particularly in gaming and marketing [7][17]. - Coreweave is expanding its capacity to meet strong customer demand across various sectors, including media and finance [22][26]. - The launch of the GLM-4.5V model by Zhiyuan demonstrates significant advancements in visual reasoning capabilities, achieving state-of-the-art performance in multiple benchmarks [33][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies like Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Xiaomi for long-term investment opportunities in the AI sector [5]. - For overseas AI applications, companies such as Duolingo, Palantir, and AppLovin are highlighted for their strong growth potential in high-frequency, high-value verticals [5][7]. Capital Expenditure - Tencent's capital expenditure for the quarter was 17.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 149%, driven by investments in GPU and server capabilities [4][16]. - Coreweave's capital expenditure for FY25Q2 reached 2.9 billion USD, with expectations of continued high spending to support growth [26][24]. Model Innovations - Tencent's new multi-modal understanding model, Mix Yuan Large-Vision, has achieved top rankings in international evaluations, showcasing its advanced capabilities in multi-language understanding [34][35]. - Kunlun Wanwei's Skywork Deep Research Agent v2 has set new industry standards for performance in complex task handling [43][44].

Core Insights - The mobile advertising market in the first half of 2025 experienced significant fluctuations, with advertisers adopting a cautious attitude due to market uncertainties [1][19][22] - The introduction of AI tools has led to a surge in advertising, with ByteDance's short drama app "Hongguo Free Short Drama" emerging as a standout performer [1][19][22] - The cultural entertainment, social dating, and gaming sectors remain the top three industries for advertising, with the short drama sector showing rapid growth [1][22] Mobile Market Trends - The overall mobile advertising spending in H1 2025 was marked by volatility, with over 200 million ads monitored across the network [19] - AI applications have significantly reduced the cost of ad material production, leading to an increase in vertical video content, which now accounts for over 50% of total ad formats [1][19] - The cultural entertainment sector accounted for nearly 30% of total ad spending in Q2 2025, driven by user demand and technological advancements [1][22] Advertising Formats - Vertical video ads dominate the market, comprising 54.8% of all ad formats, with the most common video length being between 16 to 30 seconds [1][27] - In the gaming sector, 49.2% of ads fall within the 16 to 30 seconds range, while the e-commerce sector leads in the 31 to 45 seconds category with 25.1% [27][29] Traffic Platform Observations - There are notable differences in industry distribution across major traffic platforms: - 31.1% of ads on Douyin (TikTok) are in cultural entertainment, while Tencent Ads focuses on e-commerce at 26.6% [31][32] - Baidu's marketing is heavily skewed towards gaming, with 51.2% of ads in that sector [32] - Kuaishou's advertising is primarily in tool applications, accounting for 24.0% [32] App Popularity and Strategies - Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book) showed a remarkable MAU growth of 12.7%, while other platforms like Douyin and WeChat maintain high user engagement [45] - The top apps by MAU include WeChat (102.2 million), Taobao (96.9 million), and Alipay (87.4 million), indicating strong competition in the mobile shopping and financial sectors [49] - The promotional strategies of popular apps vary, with "Hongguo Free Short Drama" leveraging IP resources and "Xingye" focusing on AI tools to target specific demographics [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing AI arms race among tech giants, highlighting Tencent's impressive financial performance and its strategic shift towards AI-driven growth, while questioning whether AI can unlock new trillion-dollar opportunities for the company [6][10]. Financial Performance - Tencent reported a total revenue of 184.5 billion yuan for Q2 2025, marking a 15% year-on-year increase, the highest quarterly growth rate in four years [7][12]. - Non-IFRS net profit reached 63.05 billion yuan, a 10% increase compared to the previous year, exceeding market expectations [7][8]. - Capital expenditures surged by 119% to 19.11 billion yuan, indicating significant investment in AI [7][29]. Business Segments - Tencent's revenue breakdown shows social networks at 18%, domestic games at 22%, international games at 10%, advertising at 19%, and financial technology and enterprise services at 30% [13]. - The gaming segment generated 59.2 billion yuan in revenue, a 22% year-on-year increase, with domestic and international markets growing by 17% and 35%, respectively [13][16]. - Advertising revenue grew by 20% to 35.8 billion yuan, driven by AI-enhanced advertising platforms [17]. - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue reached 55.5 billion yuan, a 10% increase, attributed to rising demand for AI-related services [18]. AI Strategy - Tencent is focusing on integrating AI into its existing business models, with the AI product "Yuanbao" being a key component of its strategy [20][22]. - The company aims to leverage its existing platforms like WeChat and QQ to enhance the user experience and drive AI adoption [25]. - Tencent's R&D investment in AI increased by 17% to 20.25 billion yuan, reflecting its commitment to AI development [28][29]. Market Response - Following the strong financial results, Tencent's stock price surged over 41% year-to-date, with its market capitalization surpassing 5 trillion HKD [9][28]. - The market's positive reaction indicates confidence in Tencent's AI strategy and its potential to revitalize core business segments [28][34]. Future Outlook - Tencent's management emphasizes the importance of a long-term strategy in the AI competition, focusing on sustainable growth rather than short-term gains [27]. - The company is tasked with demonstrating how AI can create new revenue streams beyond enhancing existing operations [28][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 742.19 HKD, up from the previous 614.34 HKD [6][28]. Core Insights - Tencent's Q2 revenue grew by 14.5% year-on-year, exceeding consensus expectations by 3%. Key business segments such as value-added services, advertising, and fintech saw year-on-year growth of 16%, 20%, and 10% respectively, with corresponding improvements in gross margins [1][5][28]. - The company is positioned as a leading developer in the shooting game sector, with significant upcoming titles like "Delta Action" and "Valorant Mobile" expected to drive player engagement and monetization [1][12][15]. - Advertising revenue increased by 20% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in video accounts and mini-programs, with management indicating a low impact from the recently implemented advertising tax [3][5]. - Financial technology revenue exceeded expectations by 3%, with notable growth in consumer loans and payment services, while cloud business is expected to expand as AI demand increases [4][5]. Summary by Sections Q2 Performance - Tencent's Q2 adjusted net profit increased by 10% year-on-year, surpassing expectations by 3%, and a 22% increase when excluding the impact of joint ventures [1][10]. - The company reported a cash capital expenditure of 229 billion for AI-related investments, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [1][10]. Gaming Sector - The value-added services revenue grew by 16%, with self-developed games contributing significantly to this growth. Domestic and overseas game revenues increased by 17% and 35% respectively, exceeding consensus expectations [2][11]. - "Delta Action" has become a top game, with its daily active users surpassing 20 million in July, indicating strong market performance [11][15]. Advertising and Fintech - Advertising revenue growth of 20% was driven by video accounts and mini-programs, with management noting that AI has improved click-through rates and overall advertising effectiveness [3][5]. - Fintech revenue grew by 10%, with a gross margin of 52.1%, attributed to an increase in consumer loans and cost efficiencies in cloud services [4][5]. Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been adjusted upward for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 2.7%, 4.7%, and 4.8% respectively, driven by the continued expansion of WeChat mini-stores and AI product integration [5][28]. - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 255.7 billion, 289 billion, and 330.4 billion RMB respectively [5][28].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q2 financial report shows strong growth driven by AI investments, with revenue reaching 184.5 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, and operating profit (Non-IFRS) growing 18% to 69.25 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's revenue for Q2 was 184.5 billion yuan, marking a 15% increase year-on-year [1] - Operating profit (Non-IFRS) reached 69.25 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [1] - The company achieved a gross margin of 22% and an operating profit margin of 18% despite significant capital expenditures [1][4] Group 2: Business Segments - Value-added services revenue grew 16% to 91.37 billion yuan, with gaming revenue increasing 22% [3] - Marketing services revenue reached 35.76 billion yuan, with a 20% year-on-year growth, benefiting from AI-driven improvements [3] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue increased 10% to 55.54 billion yuan, driven by consumer loans and AI-related services [4] Group 3: AI Strategy and Investments - Tencent's R&D expenditure rose 17% to 20.25 billion yuan, while capital expenditures surged 119% to 19.11 billion yuan [4][2] - The company is focusing on AI technology development, with advancements in its "Hunyuan" models and a growing ecosystem of AI applications [6][7] - The "Hunyuan" family of models has expanded, with multiple iterations and open-source releases enhancing its capabilities [6][7] Group 4: International Expansion - International game revenue grew 35% to 18.8 billion yuan, achieving record highs for four consecutive quarters [9] - Tencent is investing 150 million USD to build its first data center in the Middle East and expanding its presence in Japan [10] - The WeChat ecosystem is optimizing global user experiences through mini-programs and payment services, with significant user engagement in overseas markets [10]