March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is down -0.19 (-1.28%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is down -4.40 (-1.04%). Sugar prices tumbled to 3-week lows today.  Weakness in the Brazilian real is weighing on sugar prices as the real (^USDBRL) fell to a 1.75-month low against the dollar today.  The weaker real encourages export sales by Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Sugar prices are already on the defensive due to ramped-up sugar production in India.  Last Monday, the In ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.21 (+1.41%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +5.60 (+1.31%). Sugar prices climbed to 5-week highs today after StoneX cut its Brazil 2026/27 Center-South sugar production estimate to 41.5 MMT from a September estimate of 42.1 MMT. More News from Barchart Sugar also has support from the recent news that India's food ministry said it was considering boosting the price of ethanol used for gasoline blending, which could encourage India's suga ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery after early losses, driven by a stronger Brazilian real which has led to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent selloffs have pushed NY sugar prices to a 5-year low and London sugar to a 4.75-year low, primarily due to increased sugar production in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2] Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for 2025/26 has been revised upwards to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT, indicating a growing output [3] - In the first half of October, Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT), with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 48.24% from 47.33% [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT [3] India Sugar Production - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, contributing to a potentially bumper sugar crop [5] - India's sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [5]

Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.19 (-1.20%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -10.70 (-2.37%) [1] - Sugar prices settled lower but remained above the lows reached the previous day, with NY sugar falling to a 3-week low and London sugar dropping to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low [2] Supply Outlook - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies is weighing on prices, with BMI Group projecting a global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) and Covrig Analytics projecting a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, contributing to the pressure on sugar prices [3] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-September fell -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT [3] Regional Production Factors - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm as of September 30, which is 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [4] - India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected a +19% year-on-year increase in sugar production for 2025/26 to 34.9 MMT, following a -17.5% decline in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT [4] Export Dynamics - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which may not sufficiently ease the country's sugar surplus and could lead to exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant decline, with NY sugar reaching a 3-week low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, driven by increased sugar production forecasts in major producing countries [2][4][6] Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, contributing to the bearish outlook for sugar prices [2] - The cumulative sugar output for Brazil's Center-South region for the 2025-26 season through mid-September fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [2] - India's sugar production is projected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025-26 season, following a significant decline in the previous year [4] - Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 10.5 million tons for the 2025-26 season, further adding to global supply [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Export Outlook - The global sugar market is projected to have a surplus of 10.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [3] - India's abundant monsoon rains have led to expectations of a bumper sugar crop, which may negatively impact sugar prices [4] - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations, due to a potential surplus despite plans to divert some sugar for ethanol production [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently declined after reaching a 1.75-month high, influenced by projections of a global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season [1][2] Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.18 (-1.07%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -6.40 (-1.38%) [1] - NY sugar initially climbed to a 1.75-month high due to lower sugar content from Brazil's sugarcane crush [2] - Last month, NY sugar hit a 4.25-year low, and London sugar reached a 4-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global sugar supplies [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons [4] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills increased to 53.49% in the second half of August from 47.74% the previous year [4] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-September fell -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [4] Group 3: India's Sugar Production Outlook - The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, with monsoon rains reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in 5 years [5] - India's sugar production is projected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a -17.5% decline in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 million tons [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices exhibited mixed results, with NY sugar reaching a 1.5-week high while London sugar declined, influenced by crude oil price movements [2] Group 1: Sugar Market Trends - NY sugar futures closed up +0.11 (+0.70%), while December London ICE white sugar futures closed down -1.90 (-0.41%) [1] - The recent rise in crude oil prices has led to short covering in sugar futures, as WTI crude reached a 1.75-month high, potentially shifting sugar production towards ethanol [2] Group 2: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - A significant global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) is projected for the 2025/26 season, reversing a previous deficit of -4.7 MMT in 2024/25 [3] - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year in the second half of August, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar, although cumulative output for 2025-26 is down -1.9% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Regional Production Insights - India is expected to divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may lead to increased exports of sugar, exceeding earlier estimates [5] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although this is an improvement from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25 [6]

Group 1 - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant increase, reaching 1.5-week highs, driven by the strength of the Brazilian real, which has risen to a 15-month high against the dollar, discouraging export sales from Brazil's sugar producers [1] - An excessive short position by funds in NY sugar futures could lead to gains in a potential short-covering rally, with funds increasing their net-short positions by 32,849 to 182,608, the highest in nearly 6 years [2] - Brazil's sugar production outlook has been bearish, with a reported 16% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of August, but cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 is down 4.7% year-on-year [3][4] Group 2 - The Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association has requested permission to export 2 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar in the 2025/26 season, which could add bearish pressure to the sugar market [5] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, with a projected deficit of 231,000 metric tons, an improvement from the previous year's 4.88 million metric tons shortfall [6]