March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.22 (+1.49%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +5.00 (+1.19%). Sugar prices are moving higher today after a rally in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) to a 1.5-month high against the dollar prompted short covering in sugar futures.  The stronger real discourages export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart An excessively long position in London ICE white sugar futures could exacerbate any price decline.  Last Friday's weekly ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Wednesday closed up +0.02 (+0.14%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -1.40 (-0.33%). Sugar prices recovered from early losses on Wednesday and settled mixed.  Short covering emerged in sugar futures on Wednesday after the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) rallied to a 1.5-month high against the dollar.  The stronger real discourages export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Sugar prices initially fell on Wednesday amid higher pro ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed up +0.03 (+0.20%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +2.50 (+0.59%). Sugar prices recovered from early losses on Tuesday and settled slightly higher as strength in the Brazilian real prompted some short covering in sugar futures.  The real (^USDBRL) climbed to a 1-month high against the dollar on Tuesday, discouraging export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Last Friday, sugar prices fell to 2-week lows on s ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed down -0.41 (-2.73%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -8.90 (-2.08%). Sugar prices dropped to 2-week lows on Friday and finished sharply lower.  Sugar prices retreated after the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported Thursday that Indian sugar production for 2025-26, from October 1 to December 31, jumped 25% y/y to 11.90 MMT from 9.54 MMT the same time last year. More News from Barchart Signs of a larger sugar crop in India, ...

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.37 (-2.42%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is down -7.90 (-1.82%), indicating a sharp decline in sugar prices to 1-week lows [1] - The dollar index's rally to a 1-week high is exerting pressure on most commodity prices, including sugar [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production Outlook - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to fall by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to decrease by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices [5] - Brazil's cumulative sugar output through November 2025-26 rose by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Dynamics - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT from 30 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, which is pressuring sugar prices [4] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system introduced for sugar exports in 2022/23 [3] - The India Sugar Mill Association reported a +28% year-on-year increase in sugar production from October 1 to December 15, reaching 7.83 MMT [4]

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is down -0.19 (-1.28%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is down -4.40 (-1.04%). Sugar prices tumbled to 3-week lows today.  Weakness in the Brazilian real is weighing on sugar prices as the real (^USDBRL) fell to a 1.75-month low against the dollar today.  The weaker real encourages export sales by Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Sugar prices are already on the defensive due to ramped-up sugar production in India.  Last Monday, the In ...

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have reached 5-week highs due to reduced production estimates in Brazil and potential changes in India's ethanol pricing policy, which may lead to lower sugar supplies [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 (SBH26) increased by +0.21 (+1.41%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 (SWH26) rose by +5.60 (+1.31%) [1]. - Sugar prices have been under pressure since early October due to expectations of robust global sugar supplies, with London sugar hitting a 4.75-year nearest-futures low and NY sugar prices reaching a 5-year nearest-futures low [5]. Group 2: Production Estimates - StoneX revised its Brazil 2026/27 Center-South sugar production estimate down to 41.5 million metric tons (MMT) from 42.1 MMT [1]. - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bullish outlook for Brazilian sugar output [6]. - Cumulative Center-South sugar output in Brazil through October increased by +1.6% year-on-year to 38.085 MMT [6]. Group 3: Export Policies and Supply Dynamics - India's food ministry is considering increasing the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to more sugarcane being diverted to ethanol production, thereby reducing sugar supplies [2]. - India has allowed mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar for the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, due to a quota system introduced after reduced production [3]. Group 4: Global Supply Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4]. - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up by +1.2 MMT from earlier estimates [5].

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery after early losses, driven by a stronger Brazilian real which has led to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent selloffs have pushed NY sugar prices to a 5-year low and London sugar to a 4.75-year low, primarily due to increased sugar production in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2] Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for 2025/26 has been revised upwards to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT, indicating a growing output [3] - In the first half of October, Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT), with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 48.24% from 47.33% [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT [3] India Sugar Production - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, contributing to a potentially bumper sugar crop [5] - India's sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [5]

Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.19 (-1.20%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -10.70 (-2.37%) [1] - Sugar prices settled lower but remained above the lows reached the previous day, with NY sugar falling to a 3-week low and London sugar dropping to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low [2] Supply Outlook - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies is weighing on prices, with BMI Group projecting a global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) and Covrig Analytics projecting a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, contributing to the pressure on sugar prices [3] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-September fell -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT [3] Regional Production Factors - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm as of September 30, which is 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [4] - India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected a +19% year-on-year increase in sugar production for 2025/26 to 34.9 MMT, following a -17.5% decline in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT [4] Export Dynamics - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which may not sufficiently ease the country's sugar surplus and could lead to exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant decline, with NY sugar reaching a 3-week low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, driven by increased sugar production forecasts in major producing countries [2][4][6] Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, contributing to the bearish outlook for sugar prices [2] - The cumulative sugar output for Brazil's Center-South region for the 2025-26 season through mid-September fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [2] - India's sugar production is projected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025-26 season, following a significant decline in the previous year [4] - Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 10.5 million tons for the 2025-26 season, further adding to global supply [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Export Outlook - The global sugar market is projected to have a surplus of 10.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [3] - India's abundant monsoon rains have led to expectations of a bumper sugar crop, which may negatively impact sugar prices [4] - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations, due to a potential surplus despite plans to divert some sugar for ethanol production [5]