March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.08 (+0.56%), and May London ICE white sugar #5 (SWK26) is up +0.20 (+0.05%). Sugar prices are moving higher today, with NY sugar posting a 2.5-week high and London sugar posting a 1.5-week high.  Strength in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) is bullish for sugar prices.  The real jumped to a 1.75-year high against the dollar today, discouraging export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Sugar prices also have positive carryover support ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend due to a rally in the Brazilian real, which has reached a 1.5-month high against the dollar, leading to short covering in sugar futures [1] - The global sugar market is facing a surplus, with estimates for the 2025/26 global sugar surplus raised to 4.7 million metric tons (MMT) [4] Group 1: Brazilian Sugar Market - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 MMT, with a higher ratio of cane crushed for sugar [3] - The stronger Brazilian real is discouraging export sales from sugar producers in Brazil [1] Group 2: Indian Sugar Market - India's sugar production for the 2025-26 season has risen by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate increased to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year growth [5] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - An excessively long position in London ICE white sugar futures could lead to exacerbated price declines, as funds have increased their net long positions to a record high [2] - The outlook for a global sugar surplus is negatively impacting prices, with projections indicating a decrease in surplus for the 2026/27 season [4]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed movements due to various factors including production increases in Brazil and India, as well as currency fluctuations affecting export dynamics [1][2][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 million metric tons (MMT) [2] - The ratio of cane crushed for sugar in Brazil has risen to 50.82% for the 2025/26 season, up from 48.16% in the previous season [2] - India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 has surged by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, with the overall production estimate for 2025/26 raised to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [4] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been increased to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT [6] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The Brazilian real has strengthened against the dollar, reaching a 1.5-month high, which discourages export sales from Brazilian sugar producers [1] - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [5] Group 3: Market Outlook - Covrig Analytics has raised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 4.7 MMT, up from 4.1 MMT, but projects a decline in surplus to 1.4 MMT for 2026/27 due to weak prices discouraging production [3] - The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil and stronger production in India is bearish for sugar prices [6]

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.03 (+0.20%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +2.50 (+0.59%) as sugar prices recovered from early losses due to strength in the Brazilian real [1] - Sugar prices fell to 2-week lows last Friday on signs of stronger sugar output in India, with Indian sugar production for 2025-26 jumping 25% y/y to 11.90 MMT [2] - NY sugar matched a 2.5-month high last Monday on expectations of smaller future sugar supplies from Brazil, with a forecasted decline in Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT [4] Group 2: Indian Sugar Production and Exports - The India Sugar Mill Association raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, up +18.8% y/y, while cutting the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production to 3.4 MMT, potentially boosting sugar exports [2] - India's food ministry announced it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season to alleviate a domestic supply glut [3] Group 3: Brazilian Sugar Production Outlook - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices due to record sugar output [5] - Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT, with an increase in the ratio of cane crushed for sugar to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5]

Group 1 - Sugar prices have dropped to two-week lows, with March NY world sugar 11 closing down 2.73% and March London ICE white sugar 5 down 2.08% [1] - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a significant increase in Indian sugar production for 2025-26, rising 25% year-on-year to 11.90 million metric tons (MMT) [1] - ISMA raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year, while cutting the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production to 3.4 MMT [2] Group 2 - India's food ministry announced that it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season to alleviate domestic supply issues [2] - Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline by 3.91% in 2026/27 to 41.8 MMT, with exports projected to fall by 11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [3] - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices [4]

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.37 (-2.42%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is down -7.90 (-1.82%), indicating a sharp decline in sugar prices to 1-week lows [1] - The dollar index's rally to a 1-week high is exerting pressure on most commodity prices, including sugar [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production Outlook - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to fall by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to decrease by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices [5] - Brazil's cumulative sugar output through November 2025-26 rose by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Dynamics - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT from 30 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, which is pressuring sugar prices [4] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system introduced for sugar exports in 2022/23 [3] - The India Sugar Mill Association reported a +28% year-on-year increase in sugar production from October 1 to December 15, reaching 7.83 MMT [4]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have declined to three-week lows due to increased production in major producing countries and a weaker Brazilian real, which encourages exports [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT), with 428 sugar mills crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago [2]. - Brazil's sugar production forecast for 2025/26 was raised to 45 MMT, with a reported 8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [3]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025/26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4]. Group 2: Price Trends and Market Impact - Sugar prices have been under pressure since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low due to higher output and expectations of a global surplus [5]. - Czarnikow increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, reflecting a growing supply outlook [5]. - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 was raised to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which may enhance India's export capacity [6].

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have reached 5-week highs due to reduced production estimates in Brazil and potential changes in India's ethanol pricing policy, which may lead to lower sugar supplies [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 (SBH26) increased by +0.21 (+1.41%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 (SWH26) rose by +5.60 (+1.31%) [1]. - Sugar prices have been under pressure since early October due to expectations of robust global sugar supplies, with London sugar hitting a 4.75-year nearest-futures low and NY sugar prices reaching a 5-year nearest-futures low [5]. Group 2: Production Estimates - StoneX revised its Brazil 2026/27 Center-South sugar production estimate down to 41.5 million metric tons (MMT) from 42.1 MMT [1]. - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bullish outlook for Brazilian sugar output [6]. - Cumulative Center-South sugar output in Brazil through October increased by +1.6% year-on-year to 38.085 MMT [6]. Group 3: Export Policies and Supply Dynamics - India's food ministry is considering increasing the price of ethanol for gasoline blending, which could lead to more sugarcane being diverted to ethanol production, thereby reducing sugar supplies [2]. - India has allowed mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar for the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, due to a quota system introduced after reduced production [3]. Group 4: Global Supply Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4]. - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up by +1.2 MMT from earlier estimates [5].

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery after early losses, driven by a stronger Brazilian real which has led to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent selloffs have pushed NY sugar prices to a 5-year low and London sugar to a 4.75-year low, primarily due to increased sugar production in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2] Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for 2025/26 has been revised upwards to 45 million metric tons (MMT) from 44.5 MMT, indicating a growing output [3] - In the first half of October, Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons (MT), with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 48.24% from 47.33% [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 MMT [3] India Sugar Production - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, contributing to a potentially bumper sugar crop [5] - India's sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [5]

Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.19 (-1.20%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -10.70 (-2.37%) [1] - Sugar prices settled lower but remained above the lows reached the previous day, with NY sugar falling to a 3-week low and London sugar dropping to a 4.25-year nearest-futures low [2] Supply Outlook - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies is weighing on prices, with BMI Group projecting a global 2025/26 sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) and Covrig Analytics projecting a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, contributing to the pressure on sugar prices [3] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-September fell -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT [3] Regional Production Factors - India's Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm as of September 30, which is 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [4] - India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected a +19% year-on-year increase in sugar production for 2025/26 to 34.9 MMT, following a -17.5% decline in 2024/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT [4] Export Dynamics - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which may not sufficiently ease the country's sugar surplus and could lead to exports of up to 4 MMT, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]