Group 1 - Brett Ashcroft Green is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ with extensive experience in private credit and commercial real estate mezzanine financing [1] - He has worked with high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth individuals globally, indicating a strong focus on affluent clientele [1] - His professional background includes collaboration with leading commercial real estate developers such as The Witkoff Group and Fortress Investment Group [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any specific financial data or performance metrics related to companies or industries [2][3][4]

We came across a bullish thesis on Clean Harbors, Inc., on Beeli Capital’s Substack by Andrew Beeli. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CLH. Clean Harbors, Inc.'s share price was $227.56 as of November 28th. CLH’s trailing and forward P/E were 31.61 and 28.82 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. chemical, industry Adam Gregor/Shutterstock.com Clean Harbors (CLH) is the leading provider of hazardous and environmentally sensitive waste disposal in North America, operating the cont ...

Casella Waste Systems ( CWST ) is a name I’ve been eyeing for a while. Since my last piece on the company in December 2024, maintaining a ‘hold’ rating on the stock, shares have fallen about 9% while theI'm an insurance Case Manager with a deep interest in investing. My investment philosophy is all about buying high quality stocks and great businesses. My favorite businesses are those led by disciplined capital allocators, earn exceptional returns on capital, and can compound their invested capital over lon ...

Core Viewpoint - The waste management industry, while not glamorous, offers impressive long-term returns and stability compared to more volatile sectors like technology [1][2]. Company Overview - Waste Management, founded in 1968, is North America's largest provider of public sanitation services, managing household, commercial, and industrial waste, with over 250 active landfills and advanced recycling facilities [4]. - The company has a market capitalization of $82 billion and a current stock price of $203.94, with a gross margin of 28.92% and a dividend yield of 1.63% [3][14]. Financial Performance - In the third quarter, Waste Management's revenue increased by 15% year-over-year to $6.4 billion, although operating income fell by 12% to $989 million due to noncash outflows and asset impairment [5][6]. - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 32, which is higher than the S&P 500 average of 26, indicating that shares are somewhat expensive for a mature industrial company [13]. Market Potential - The total addressable market for Waste Management is vast, as nearly every business and household in North America generates waste, with a growing number of potential clients [8]. - The company is exploring growth opportunities in green energy, particularly through landfill gas-to-energy initiatives, which convert methane from landfills into renewable natural gas [9][10]. Strategic Growth Initiatives - Waste Management is expanding through acquisitions, such as the $7.2 billion purchase of Stericycle, a medical waste service provider, which enhances its footprint in the healthcare waste market [11]. - The company's focus on synergistic opportunities, including medical waste and green energy production, positions it well for future growth [12].

Group 1: Microsoft Azure and AI Growth - Azure has reached a valuation of $75 billion, with revenue growth accelerating due to increased AI-capable cloud capacity to meet demand [1] - Microsoft has established itself as a leader in generative AI, integrating AI services into Azure and Microsoft 365, which has significantly contributed to business growth [2] - The enterprise software segment is experiencing strong double-digit revenue growth, driven by new AI features that enhance user retention and pricing power [7] Group 2: Bill Gates and the Gates Foundation - Bill Gates plans to donate at least 99% of his wealth through his foundation by 2045, having already contributed billions in Microsoft shares since its inception [5][6] - The Gates Foundation's trust fund is heavily concentrated, with three stocks accounting for over two-thirds of its marketable equity portfolio [4] Group 3: Berkshire Hathaway Investments - The Gates Foundation holds a significant position in Berkshire Hathaway, with 24.1 million Class B shares valued at $11.8 billion [9] - Berkshire Hathaway has shown solid results despite challenges in its insurance business, with operating earnings exceeding expectations [10] - The company has a substantial cash position of approximately $340 billion, allowing for strategic acquisitions like OxyChem for $9.7 billion [12] Group 4: Waste Management Holdings - Waste Management is a long-term holding of the Gates Foundation, with a competitive advantage due to its scale and landfill ownership [14][15] - The company reported strong adjusted EBITDA margins of 38.4%, despite some challenges in its recycling business [16] - Management has provided revenue guidance of $28.5 billion to $29.25 billion for 2027, indicating solid growth prospects [17]

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of $6.44 billion, a 14.9% increase year over year, but net income decreased by 20.7% to $603 million [1] - Operating EBITDA was $1.72 billion, reflecting a 2.5% year-over-year growth with an adjusted margin of 30.6% [1] Financial Performance - CEO Jim Fish highlighted expanded margins and reduced operating costs due to technology and fleet automation [1] - Core price increased by 6%, and landfill volumes rose by 5.2%, driven by MSW, special waste, and construction categories [1] - The collection and disposal business contributed significantly to the year-over-year increase in operating earnings, achieving a 32% EBITDA margin in the legacy business [1] Sector Challenges - Healthcare Solutions revenue was $628 million, slightly below expectations, as the company integrates Stericycle and its ERP system [1] - The segment faced customer frustrations with billing and reporting, leading to credits or deferred price increases [1] Operational Adjustments - The closure of the Natura PCR facility in Texas resulted in a $152 million impairment charge due to unfavorable market conditions [1] - Recycled commodity prices fell nearly 35% year over year, yet the recycling segment's operating EBITDA grew by 18% due to MRF automation investments [1] Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Developments - The company doubled its RNG production in the first nine months of the year and pre-sold about 45% of its 2026 offtake [2] - RIN prices for 2026 are projected to be in the $220 to $230 range [2] M&A Activity - The company has completed approximately $450 million in deals this year, with expectations to reach $500 million by year-end [2] - Future transactions may close in Q4 or roll into next year, with a return to a normal range of $100 million to $200 million expected in 2026 [2] Revised Guidance - The company maintains its full-year growth expectations for operating EBITDA and free cash flow, with revenue projected at the low end of the previous guidance range of $25.275 billion to $25.475 billion [2] - Margin expectations have increased to between 29.6% and 30.2% [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $2.458 billion, an increase of $120 million or 5.1% year over year, exceeding expectations [15][20] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 was $830.3 million, up 5.4% year over year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.8%, reflecting a 10 basis point increase year over year [19][20] - Core pricing increased by 6.3% in Q3, leading to an expected full-year core pricing of approximately 6.5% [15][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Roll-off pulls were down 1% year over year, while rates per pull increased by 2% [17] - Landfill tons increased by almost 3%, with municipal solid waste (MSW) tons up 2% and special waste tons up 10% [17] - E&P waste revenues increased by 7% year over year, driven by the production-oriented R360 Canada business [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Volumes were down 2.7%, reflecting a purposeful shedding of low-margin contracts and sluggishness in cyclically exposed activities [15][20] - The southern region continued to experience mid-single-digit declines, while markets like Florida and Texas showed less negative trends compared to previous quarters [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on acquisition activity, with approximately $300 million in annualized revenues either closed or under definitive agreement year to date [10] - An 11.1% increase in the regular quarterly cash dividend was authorized, marking the 15th consecutive annual double-digit increase since 2010 [10] - Long-term investments in technology and infrastructure are being made to enhance productivity and efficiency, with a focus on data analytics and customer experience [14][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in delivering the full-year 2025 outlook, assuming no further headwinds [4][20] - For 2026, the company anticipates mid-single-digit revenue growth driven by price-led organic growth in solid waste, with adjusted EBITDA margin expansion expected [21][22] - The company is optimistic about the benefits of higher employee retention and engagement, which have positively impacted financial results [12][13] Other Important Information - The company has achieved significant progress in sustainability targets, including a 19% reduction in emissions and improved safety metrics [11][12] - The Chiquita Canyon landfill closure is being managed effectively, with ongoing remediation efforts showing positive results [46][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the performance of the E&P business in Q3 and its outlook? - Management noted strong performance in the production-oriented segment, with a sequential increase in the Canadian business due to a remediation job, suggesting a run rate adjustment of $10 million for future projections [27] Question: What is the expected impact of RNG investments on EBITDA? - Management indicated that there would be no material incremental RNG revenue or EBITDA in 2025, with benefits expected to materialize more significantly in 2027 [28] Question: How do you view the pricing strategy for 2026? - The company expects to need less price increase in 2026 compared to 2025, with a target price-cost spread of 150 to 200 basis points [40][42] Question: What are the expectations for free cash flow in 2026? - Management highlighted that the timing of capital expenditures and green CapEx will inform free cash flow expectations, with a potential $50 million benefit from lower green CapEx [43] Question: Can you provide an update on the Chiquita Canyon remediation obligations? - Progress is being made in the remediation efforts, with a reduction in leachate handling and a significant decrease in odor complaints, although outlays are running ahead of expectations [46][48] Question: What is the outlook for volumes heading into next year? - Management indicated that while volumes have been flattish, there are signs of improvement, and the company is not expecting significant contract expirations that would impact volumes negatively [51][76]

Group 1: Government Shutdown Overview - The likelihood of a government shutdown is high, with estimates between 80% to 90% [19] - A shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass a budget or short-term funding, leading to temporary furloughs of federal workers [39][40] - Essential services continue during a shutdown, but many federal operations are paused, affecting data releases like the employment report [40][41] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Despite the looming shutdown, stock markets have shown resilience, with a strong quarter reported [6][8] - Historical data indicates that markets tend to recover after initial drops during shutdowns, with positive returns observed one month post-shutdown [44][48] - Long-term Treasury yields typically decline following a shutdown, with a median drop of 19 basis points observed in nine out of eleven instances [47] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on defensive plays that are less affected by government shutdowns, such as companies in essential services [27] - The current political climate suggests a lack of cooperation between parties, which may complicate negotiations and prolong the shutdown [35][36] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to reflect strong corporate performance, with projected earnings growth of 7% to 10% [14][16]

Acquisition Details - GFL Environmental acquired Superior Waste Industries from Red Dog Equity in an all-cash transaction, with the deal amount undisclosed [1] - GFL plans to spend approximately $900 million on acquisitions in 2023, indicating a ramp-up in M&A activities following a slow start due to the spinoff of its environmental services business [2] Superior Waste Industries Background - Superior Waste Industries was founded by industry veteran Billy Dietrich, who partnered with Red Dog Equity and other financial sponsors to acquire Central Disposal in March 2022, which included a landfill and hauling network [3] - Dietrich aimed to grow Superior into the leading independent waste company in Oklahoma [4] Recent Developments - Superior expanded its operations by acquiring Harley Hollan Cos. in 2022, which enhanced its hauling network and included a transfer station for construction waste [5] - In 2024, Superior acquired Sue's Recycling and Sanitation, adding two transfer stations in Oklahoma, and expressed intentions to seek further acquisitions and development opportunities [6] Statements and Future Outlook - Red Dog Equity expressed satisfaction with its partnership with Superior and confidence in GFL's ability to manage Superior's team and customers effectively [7] - Prior to the acquisition of Superior, GFL made three tuck-in acquisitions in Q2, totaling $105 million in annualized revenue, and acquired Wisconsin hauling assets from LRS in March [7]

Core Insights - Waste Management Inc reported better-than-expected earnings for Q2, with earnings of $1.92 per share, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.89 per share, and quarterly sales of $6.430 billion, exceeding the estimate of $6.369 billion [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved robust organic revenue growth and margin expansion in its Collection and Disposal business, reaching the best-ever operating expense margin [2] - Operating EBITDA grew by double digits in both Recycling Processing and Sales and WM Renewable Energy segments, indicating strong earnings contributions from sustainability investments [2] Guidance and Analyst Ratings - Waste Management lowered its FY2025 sales guidance from a range of $25.550 billion-$25.800 billion to $25.275 billion-$25.475 billion [2] - Following the earnings announcement, analysts adjusted their price targets: Oppenheimer raised it from $260 to $265, UBS from $260 to $265, and BMO Capital from $245 to $248, while maintaining their respective ratings [3][5]