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分析师:欧元区政府债券收益率曲线料将趋陡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-03 06:44
Core Viewpoint - Metzler analyst Leon Ferdinand Bost predicts that the yield curve for Eurozone government bonds is expected to steepen, with the market underestimating the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The two-year German government bond yield suggests a terminal rate of 2% for the ECB, but Metzler believes this is underestimated [1] - Growth and inflation risks are perceived to be skewed to the downside, influencing the ECB's potential actions [1] Group 2: Long-term Yield Forecasts - Driven by Germany's fiscal plans, the 10-year German government bond yield is expected to face upward pressure starting in Q2, projected to rise to 2.80% by the end of 2026 [1] - This forecast is slightly above the recent closing level of 2.749% and is anticipated to increase from approximately 2.50% in Q1, partly due to expected ECB rate cuts [1]