法国兴业银行利率策略师在一份报告中称，10年期德国国债收益率今年上半年将在2.50%-3.00%的区间 交投，之后将走高。他们表示，预计10年期德国国债收益率到2026年底将升至3.25%左右。Tradeweb的 数据显示，10年期德国国债收益率周四收于2.826%。与此同时，围绕格陵兰情景的地缘政治不确定性 应会抑制市场对欧洲央行加息的预期。这些策略师称："对局势升级的短期担忧应会阻止欧洲央行加息 预期迅速回升。" ...

欧元区政府债券收益率在早盘交易中走低，跟随美债收益率的趋势，但跌幅不那么显著。这波下跌主要 是由于市场对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美联储降息25个基点后评论的解读，明显更关注劳动力市场 的疲软而非通胀。杰富瑞的莫希特·库马尔在报告中表示："鲍威尔强调了劳动力市场疲软的重要性，而 通胀只是'略有'上升。"尽管如此，投票结果出现分歧，表明美联储未来将采取谨慎行动。根据 Tradeweb数据，10年期德国国债收益率下跌1个基点至2.850%。 来源：环球市场播报 ...

Group 1 - Nomura Securities indicates that the US dollar may face significant downward pressure by 2026 due to factors such as portfolio adjustments, rising foreign exchange hedging risks, and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] - UBS economists note that discussions regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate hikes have shifted from "if" to "when," with expectations moving forward significantly due to rising labor costs and domestic demand [2] - Barclays strategists highlight that the current market for US Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) does not adequately price in positive inflation risk premiums, suggesting a long position in 10-year breakeven inflation rates as a reasonable medium to long-term strategy [1] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings states that despite rising debt from infrastructure investments, a neutral macro environment, a robust housing market, and a strong labor market will support the stability of Australia's local government finances [3] - Mizuho Securities warns that rising interest rates could significantly increase the debt servicing costs for the UK and Japan, as both countries adjust their debt structures to rely more on short-term borrowing [2] - Nomura analysts suggest that the Bank of Korea may have ended its rate-cutting cycle, with GDP growth expected to reach 2.3% in 2026, driven by improved economic prospects and rising inflation [2]

Core Viewpoint - Metzler analyst Leon Ferdinand Bost predicts that the yield curve for Eurozone government bonds is expected to steepen, with the market underestimating the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The two-year German government bond yield suggests a terminal rate of 2% for the ECB, but Metzler believes this is underestimated [1] - Growth and inflation risks are perceived to be skewed to the downside, influencing the ECB's potential actions [1] Group 2: Long-term Yield Forecasts - Driven by Germany's fiscal plans, the 10-year German government bond yield is expected to face upward pressure starting in Q2, projected to rise to 2.80% by the end of 2026 [1] - This forecast is slightly above the recent closing level of 2.749% and is anticipated to increase from approximately 2.50% in Q1, partly due to expected ECB rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - The Swedish Nordea Bank suggests that the market's expectation of over 100 basis points rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of 2026 may be overly aggressive, considering inflation risks [1] - The French bank Société Générale indicates that the yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds may stabilize around 80 basis points, but political risks could widen this spread if the French government collapses [1] - Citigroup believes that the U.S. government shutdown could mask real risks and delay market reactions, while the outlook for the euro against the dollar may improve significantly once French political turmoil subsides and U.S. interest rates face downward pressure [3] Group 2 - Bridgewater's founder Ray Dalio warns that the rising U.S. debt relative to income will severely squeeze government and other sectors' spending capabilities, posing a threat to the global monetary order [2] - Analysts from Pantheon Macroeconomics predict that Germany may have entered a technical recession due to trade uncertainties and declining industrial production, with preliminary GDP data expected by the end of the month [3] - Analysts from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) state that the Federal Reserve's resumption of rate cuts in September marks a new phase of dollar easing, prioritizing growth over inflation control due to rising employment risks [3]

Core Insights - The yield spread between 10-year U.S. Treasuries and German bonds has recently narrowed, indicating changing market dynamics [1] - The yield curves for both U.S. and German bonds from 2-year to 10-year have steepened, reflecting differing economic outlooks [1] Group 1: U.S. Market Dynamics - The steepening of the yield curve in the U.S. is largely driven by market expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: German Market Dynamics - In Germany, the yield curve has steepened significantly due to increasing confidence in the economic outlook after years of stagnation [1]

Group 1 - European bonds continue to rise, with the 10-year German government bond yield decreasing by 2 basis points to 2.52% [1]

Group 1 - European government bonds opened mostly flat, with the 2-year German government bond yield unchanged at 1.87% [1] - The 10-year and 30-year government bond yields fell by 1 basis point to 2.56% and 3% respectively [1] - Traders are awaiting the German 2030 bond auction and comments from European Central Bank officials Villeroy and Rehn [1] Group 2 - Traders have increased bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England, now expecting a 45 basis point cut by the end of the year, up from 41 basis points on Monday [1] - Data shows that the number of employed individuals in the UK has seen its largest decline since 2020, with wage growth slowing [1]