转自：新华财经 星展集团：美国12月制造业PMI意外走弱强化美联储宽松预期 三菱日联银行：英国食品通胀升温，英镑获支撑 荷兰国际集团：地缘风险或使丹麦央行大规模干预汇市 【机构分析】 •瑞讯银行分析师指出，2026年市场将受地缘政治、美国中期选举、货币政策分化及人工智能发展主 导，AI热潮在驱动创新的同时也引发科技股估值泡沫担忧。真正的尾部风险可能源于意料之外的宏观 冲击或政策突变，这些被市场忽略的因素或成全局性扰动源。 •eToro策略师警告，2026年美联储主席更替及特朗普政府施压降息可能削弱央行独立性，过度宽松或意 外重燃通胀，构成被低估的尾部风险。2026年美国中期选举、最高法院对特朗普关税政策的裁决，及其 对多国激进言论（如委内瑞拉、格陵兰等），正显著推升地缘政治风险溢价。匈牙利、巴西、哥伦比亚 等国2026年大选结果将影响财政与监管走向；若保守派在拉美胜出，或利好市场情绪。 •凯投宏观称，日本ICT投资难转化为生产率优势。尽管日本ICT投资领先G7，但日本生产率增长仍将持 续落后于主要发达经济体，投资与产出效率关联微弱。未来十年，预计AI每年仅提升日本劳动生产率 0.7%，约为其他发达经济体增速的 ...

欧元区政府债券收益率在假日交投清淡中小幅上扬，欧元汇率微跌。市场静候将于格林威治时间19：00 公布的美联储12月会议纪要，以期获取2026年美国降息时机与幅度的线索。受美元走强拖累，欧元下跌 0.15%至1.1775美元。 欧元区债券收益率回升，部分收复前日跌幅。西班牙数据显示12月调和通胀年率仅从11月的3.2%小幅 放缓至3.0%，助推债市走势。德国10年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点至2.853%，西班牙同期国债收益率 上升3.3个基点至3.283%。 欧元区债券收益率回升，部分收复前日跌幅。西班牙数据显示12月调和通胀年率仅从11月的3.2%小幅 放缓至3.0%，助推债市走势。德国10年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点至2.853%，西班牙同期国债收益率 上升3.3个基点至3.283%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 欧元区政府债券收益率在假日交投清淡中小幅上扬，欧元汇率微跌。市场静候将于格林威治时间19：00 公布的美联储12月会议纪要，以期获取2026年美国降息时机与幅度的线索。受美元走强拖累，欧元下跌 0.15%至1.1775美元。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 ...

欧元区政府债券收益率在早盘交易中走低，跟随美债收益率的趋势，但跌幅不那么显著。这波下跌主要 是由于市场对美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在美联储降息25个基点后评论的解读，明显更关注劳动力市场 的疲软而非通胀。杰富瑞的莫希特·库马尔在报告中表示："鲍威尔强调了劳动力市场疲软的重要性，而 通胀只是'略有'上升。"尽管如此，投票结果出现分歧，表明美联储未来将采取谨慎行动。根据 Tradeweb数据，10年期德国国债收益率下跌1个基点至2.850%。 来源：环球市场播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Metzler analyst Leon Ferdinand Bost predicts that the yield curve for Eurozone government bonds is expected to steepen, with the market underestimating the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The two-year German government bond yield suggests a terminal rate of 2% for the ECB, but Metzler believes this is underestimated [1] - Growth and inflation risks are perceived to be skewed to the downside, influencing the ECB's potential actions [1] Group 2: Long-term Yield Forecasts - Driven by Germany's fiscal plans, the 10-year German government bond yield is expected to face upward pressure starting in Q2, projected to rise to 2.80% by the end of 2026 [1] - This forecast is slightly above the recent closing level of 2.749% and is anticipated to increase from approximately 2.50% in Q1, partly due to expected ECB rate cuts [1]

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Citigroup economists expect a cooling in core CPI for September, projecting a rise of 0.28%, down from 0.35% in August, with housing inflation easing overall service inflation [1] - Barclays highlights that the rise in gold prices reflects increasing market distrust in the existing fiscal and monetary order, with major economies' debt exceeding 100% of GDP and a lack of political will for fiscal consolidation [1] - Dutch International Group anticipates a continued bull market for gold, forecasting an average price of $4,000 per ounce in Q4, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Bond Market and Eurozone Stability - Dutch International Group reports that the low volatility environment in the Eurozone makes current bond yield spreads highly attractive, with the 10-year French and Italian bond spreads tightening to 82 basis points [2] - The political crisis in France serves as a warning for Europe, with ongoing challenges in managing rising government debt and the need for structural reforms [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if France avoids early elections, the euro may regain an upward trend against the dollar [2] Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Predictions - Dutch International Group indicates that the yen is becoming the preferred funding currency for carry trades, as expectations for low interest rates persist [4] - Capital Economics forecasts that the USD/JPY exchange rate will end at 150 by the end of 2025, with a potential rebound for the yen expected once the Bank of Japan resumes rate hikes [4] - Mizuho Securities maintains that the Bank of Japan will adopt a hawkish stance in the short term, despite reduced urgency for rate hikes [4] Group 4: Gold Market Projections - China International Capital Corporation predicts that gold prices could exceed $4,500 per ounce in Q1 of next year, driven by rising expectations for Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [5] - The report emphasizes that while short-term factors may fade, the long-term bullish fundamentals for gold remain intact [5] Group 5: Energy Storage and Lithium Battery Industry - CITIC Securities identifies that the energy storage sector is at a pivotal point, with significant cost reductions and policy support driving demand and market penetration [6] - The report highlights that the lithium battery supply chain is expected to improve significantly as energy storage demand accelerates [6] Group 6: Superhard Materials and Coal Sector - CITIC Securities notes that recent export controls on superhard materials may accelerate industry consolidation, leading to potential price increases in the long term [7] - The coal sector is projected to experience sustained excess returns due to balanced supply and demand dynamics, with potential price upside in the upcoming quarter [7] Group 7: AI Industry Developments - CITIC Securities observes that advancements in AI technology are exceeding expectations, with significant progress in commercialization and monetization [7] - The report emphasizes the growing importance of computing power in the AI industry, highlighting opportunities in related sectors such as optical modules and fiber optics [7]

Group 1 - French Agricultural Credit Bank analysts indicate that Japan's corporate capital expenditure is expected to become cautious due to U.S. tariffs and concerns over global economic slowdown, potentially leading to a quarter-on-quarter contraction in Japan's economy in Q3 2025 [2] - Barclays Bank reports a surge in European high-yield bond issuance driven by refinancing needs and increased dividend payments, with issuance surpassing €80 billion since 2025, marking the second-highest level for the period [2] - ING analysts suggest that if geopolitical risks ease, the dollar may face downward pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand, while strong U.S. inflation data has led to a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, supporting the dollar [3] Group 2 - Analysts believe the Bank of England may maintain a cautious interest rate stance for the remainder of 2025, with expectations to pause rate cuts in September and December, providing key support for the pound [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in the allocation of eurozone government bonds by official institutions, with their subscription rate rising from 16% last year to 20% this year [1][2] - Concerns over the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency have emerged due to fluctuating U.S. trade policies and criticism of the Federal Reserve, leading to a 9% decline in the dollar and a 12% increase in the euro [1][2] - The relative political stability, lower budget deficits, and inflation levels in Europe make eurozone bonds more attractive to central banks [1][2] Group 2 - Barclays' analysis indicates that official institutions, including central banks and sovereign wealth funds, have significantly increased their subscriptions to eurozone government bonds, with notable demand from Asian institutions [2] - The issuance of bonds through syndication has raised over €200 billion (approximately $232.4 billion) for eurozone governments last year, making it a crucial financing channel [2] - Despite the rising demand for eurozone bonds, industry experts caution that it is too early to determine if central banks are meaningfully adjusting their currency allocations due to ongoing focus on U.S. dollar assets [3]

Group 1 - Eurozone government bond yields fell after the release of U.S. data [1] - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds increased by 0.5 basis points to 2.53% [1]

Group 1 - Eurozone government bond yields increased following the release of U.S. data [1] - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds narrowed its decline to 2 basis points, reporting at 2.47% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are losing confidence in U.S. assets, which may benefit Eurozone government bonds [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group's global market research head, Harapani, indicates a shift in investor sentiment away from U.S. assets [1] - The performance of German government bonds has consistently outperformed U.S. Treasuries [1] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - The yield spread between French and German government bonds remains relatively stable [1]