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专访瑞士百达杨孝强:新兴市场债券投资价值凸显,中国债券适合作为“稳定器”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-11 04:37
Group 1: Emerging Market Bond Investment Outlook - The trend of a weakening US dollar is expected to positively impact emerging market local currency bonds, leading to a favorable outlook for these investments [1][3] - There is a shift in global investment from US dollar assets to emerging market assets, driven by the declining appeal of US Treasury bonds and the volatility in long-term bonds across the US, Japan, and Europe [1][3] - Emerging market bonds are seen as attractive due to the potential for positive returns as the dollar depreciates against local currencies [3][4] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - The influence of US tariff policies on emerging market bonds is considered limited, with most Asian corporate bonds being less exposed to large-scale exports to the US [4][5] - Market sentiment may cause temporary fluctuations in Asian corporate bonds, but the long-term impact of tariffs is not as significant as initially perceived [5] Group 3: Attractive Emerging Market Economies - Latin American, Southeast Asian, and Indian bonds are highlighted as promising investment categories within emerging markets [6][7] - Latin American bonds are particularly attractive due to high credit spreads and favorable economic growth prospects, with expectations of monetary easing in the region [6] - Indian bonds are gaining attention due to their inclusion in global bond indices and strong GDP growth, despite geopolitical risks [7] Group 4: Southeast Asia Bond Market - Southeast Asian local currency and dollar-denominated bonds are viewed positively, supported by strong domestic consumption and manageable inflation [8] - Companies in sectors such as real estate, consumer goods, and renewable energy in Southeast Asia are identified as having solid fundamentals and low export dependency, making their bonds attractive [8] Group 5: China Bond Market Perspective - China's bond market is regarded positively despite lower yields, with expectations of continued low inflation and monetary easing [9][10] - Chinese local currency bonds are characterized by low volatility and stability, making them appealing as a long-term investment option [10] - The demand for Chinese dollar-denominated bonds is expected to rise as global investors seek to diversify their portfolios, particularly in light of the lower volatility compared to other emerging market bonds [11]